The Duke looks as good as ever this season

After a brief break to visit Minnesota, the Avalanche will take an effective continuation of their five-game two-week-long homestand into the Christmas break after two more home games this week.

The first comes tonight after a mostly solid road win over the Minnesota Kryptonites last night.  The Kryptonites have had the Avs’ number all season, tallying two regulation wins and two shootout wins over the ‘Lanche.  But a strong outing from the Avalanche’s muckers (led by the eternally rough ‘n tumble Adam Foote) ended with a 4-3 victory over the Wild… I mean Kryptonites… I mean those guys whose equipment caught on fire Friday night.

So, despite a horrible rout at the hands of the East-best Washington Capitals one week ago, the Avalanche now hold a four-point lead over the Calgary Flames in the Northwest Division race.  Colorado has also played three fewer games to date, so they will need to keep winning to keep their lead over the latter half of the season.

Here we go Avalanche… two wins in a lightly scheduled week, and the second half of the season starts looking very, very manageable.

Tue, Dec 22^nd vs Anaheim Mighty Ducks (8:00 MST)

A nice late start for the Avalanche the night after a hard-fought game in Minneapolis.  I don’t expect the Avalanche to be especially tired from their only road game in two weeks of play, so this one will be a straight matchup with home ice thrown in for the Avs.

The Ducks are not as bad as their .500 record, and have actually been enjoying a successful road swing after stinking up their home ice for much of the season.  They are also the kind of team that gives the Avalanche fits; they focus on puck possession, defense & goaltending before offense and transition play.

Still, this is not the Anaheim team of seasons past, and their defense has been exploited on-and-off all season long.  The bottom line says that the Avalanche win a close game at home, but I have a bad feeling about this matchup.  Decisions, decisions…

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 2, DUCKS 1

Sat, Dec 26^th vs Dallas Stars (7:30 MST)

Nearing the halfway mark in the 2009-2010 season, the Avalanche will play their first of four games against these Dallas Stars, and it is difficult to know what to expect.

The Stars are battling in the toughest division in hockey.  Preseason favorites to trade blows with the Sharks for tops in the Pacific, Dallas now trails San Jose, Phoenix and Los Angeles by 5+ points.  Only Anaheim’s rocky season has stopped them from sinking to the bottom of their division.

And yet a high level of parody in the NHL dictates that anybody can beat anybody.  So the Avalanche had better watch out for a Stars team that still boasts a great goaltender (Marty Turco) and a capable offense… even if their defense has left for colder climates.

I like the Avalanche to invent a win in their 40^th game of the 82-game season, and I expect style points to be handed out to both teams by the end of the night.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, STARS 4 (OT)

WEEK 12 PREDICTION:  2-0

**Bonus Coverage**

Look out World, the Avs are healthy!!

I typed that entire title line with one hand while knocking on my wooden desk with the other.  Why?  Because I am absurdly superstitious when it comes to injuries, and because… well… I get especially nervous when the Avs’ injury report only lists one player.

Marek Svatos is still day-to-day with an injured groin, but will likely <knock> <knock> <knock> return to the ice after the Christmas break.

Milan Hedjuk returned from injury to lead the Avalanche over the visiting Blue Jackets on Saturday night.  He logged two assists and a late goal in that effort.  By Monday night in Minnesota The Duke looked like Milan of Old as he tucked a flawless shot in between the post and the outstretched skate of Wild goaltender Niklas Backstrom.

With so few injury issues <knock> <knock> to worry about <knock>, Colorado can focus on doing the most with the impressive array of talent they have gathered over the offseason and throughout this regular season.  The injury bug of 2009 led to call-ups from Lake Erie that have given this team speed and edge (though intermittently) over the course of the first half of the season.

And so the Avalanche prepare for a run at the playoffs with team <knock> intact and rookies <knock> rolling.

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Alexander Ovechkin & Jose Theodore will make a rare appearance at Pepsi Center on Tuesday night

The ebb and flow of the injury report saw Avalanche goalie Craig Anderson return to the ice just in time for Milan Hejduk and Marek Svatos to sit out as day-to-day scratches.  Ruslan Salei is worse-off than initial reports suggested, and there is no definitive timeline for Kyle Cumiskey’s return.

And yet the Avalanche keep on winning!

They logged a comeback victory over the Lightning, and another (!!!) regulation smiting of the division-rival Calgary Flames.  That the Avalanche cannot beat the lesser three teams in the Northwest is… puzzling at best.  The Avs laid another egg at home versus the Wild, failing to score despite an outstanding effort from Peter Budaj.

However, knocking off the Flames three times in three tries with a trio of three-to-two victories (two of them at Calgary) has the Avalanche alone atop the division nearing the halfway point in the season.

Calgary will have its chance to catch up to Colorado, but not right away.  The Avalanche have played three more games than the Flames and only lead by two points, but both teams have a light schedule this week.

The Avs’ mini-break from Tuesday to Saturday couldn’t have come at a better time for this injury-depleted squad as they gear up for a nasty stretch of games to close out 2010.

Tue, Dec 15th vs Washington Capitals (7:30 MST)

There are a lot of intriguing story lines for this game…

The best team in the East meets the third-best in the West.  Alexander Ovechkin brings his awe-inspiringly great game to Pepsi Center.  And Jose Theodore will likely make the start for the Capitals in his first return to Denver since being slapped around by Detroit in the second round of the 2007 playoffs.

Not that Colorado fans hold anything against Jose (except maybe his exorbitant salary.)  He played really well in every other game in the regular season, and was a stud in two first-round playoff victories over the Dallas Stars (2006) and the Minnesota Wild (2007).

But now Theodore is in a time-share with Semyon Varlamov in Washington.  He isn’t as quick as he once was, and one can assume that he still takes mid-game naps that lead to cheap goals for the opposing team.

I’d rather see Varlamov in this one, because I know how good a motivated Theodore can be.  We can assume that Caps head coach Bruce Boudreau knows this as well, even if Varlamov is clearly the more talented goaltender in any given game.  (I once suggested that the Avs should trade Jose for a bag of peanuts.  Read this recent Caps blog on trading Jose for a bag of pucks.)

No matter who starts in net for the Caps, their Defense is the real liability.  Home ice will likely decide this one in favor of the Avs, but a hot goaltender for either side is just as likely to swing the contest.  I like the Avs in a high-scoring thrilla.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, CAPITALS 4

Sat, Dec 19^th vs Columbus Blue Jackets (7:00 MST)

The Avs nipped the Jackets 3-2 in Columbus in the teams’ only meeting this season on December 5^th.  I see no reason to believe that the Jackets will fare any better this time around.

Peter Budaj started that game for the Avalanche, and I would love to see him start this game as well.  Budaj proved in Craig Anderson’s injury-induced absence that he is up to the task of defeating fair-to-middling teams.  And as fellow PSC writer Dan Olson wrote recently, the most glaring error committed by the Colorado coaching staff this season has been not resting Anderson enough with stand-out backup Budaj readily available.

Either goalie would be a worthy opponent for Blue Jackets goaltender Steve Mason, but the Avs are buzzing on offense right now and Columbus just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 3, BLUE JACKETS 1

Mon, Dec 21^st @ Minnesota Wild (6:00 MST)

As sick as I am of watching this team lose to the lowly Wild, the Avs themselves must be twice as disgusted.  The Wild have beaten the Avalanche four times in four tries, and those losses account for a sizeable chunk of Colorado’s losses this season.

The Avalanche players and coaches know that they have to go into Minnesota next Monday and find a way to win.  I offer this helpful hint: hold on to the &*@#$% puck!

The Wild only do one thing well, and that is puck possession.  They are the Avs’ kryptonite for that reason alone.  The Avalanche like to run with their controlled chaos/neutral zone super-speed style on offense, and a good possession team like the Wild can be very disruptive so long as they keep the play in front of their defenders.

In the defensive end the Avalanche do well unless its opponent can cycle endlessly until something opens up.  Enter the Wild, whose only offensive play goes roughly “cycle, cycle, cycle, throw the puck to Andrew Brunette or Mikko Koivu.”

Enough is enough Avs.  Let’s beat these bottom-feeders!  Discipline dammit!

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 2, WILD 1 (SO)

WEEK 9 PREDICTION:  3-0

**Bonus Coverage**

Remember the name ‘Stoa’

Ryan Stoa was not supposed to play for the Avalanche until next year, but the NHL has no script except “win, win, win”.  Stoa’s NHL career has been accelerating towards his first start (in Sunday’s win over Calgary) for two years.

It all began with the Avalanche drafting the young power forward in the second round of the 2005 NHL draft.  After a standout year with the NCAA Minnesota Gophers, Stoa is looking like a second-round steal of first-round talent.

A rash of injuries for the Avalanche contributed to Ryan being called up last week from the Avs’ AHL affiliate team, the Lake Erie Monsters.  More than that, though, there is the noteworthy (and awesome) philosophy practiced by this new Colorado coaching staff; young talent should develop in an NHL environment.

Remember that head coach Joe Sacco coached the Monsters before being called up to the big leagues himself in the offseason.  And while he may have only coached Ryan briefly (Stoa decided to forgo a fifth season at Minnesota in favor of signing with Colorado in March,) Sacco certainly maintains close ties within the Monsters franchise.

Ryan Stoa will follow Matt Duchene and Ryan O’Reilly to the Avs, and will be the old man of the 2009-2010 rookie class at 22 years of age.  Despite less NHL experience than Duchene or O’Reilly, Stoa should make a similarly impressive impact.  He logged 24 goals and 22 assists with the Gophers last season, and is a noted on-ice leader.  Welcome to the bigs, young Master Stoa, and best of luck to ye.

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Avalanche 2nd Goaltender Peter Budaj

image by Sakic_19

The (veteran?) Avalanche goaltender with the oft-mispronounced last name was the savior of the Avalanche in Week 10.

After starting goalie Craig Anderson was intentionally injured by the dirtiest little defender in the league (Keith Ballard) one week ago at Florida, Peter Budaj stepped into the crease and immediately began playing inspired hockey.

Anderson lay prostrate on the ice in the closing seconds of overtime on Dec 2^nd.  The Avalanche had scrambled to tie the contest with two goals in the final minute of the third period. (Thirty-seven seconds apart @ 19:07 & 19:44.)  Ballard, streaking down the right side, leaned into Anderson’s head as Craig covered the puck just outside of his crease.

Adam Foote, skating back on the opposite side of the goal, met Ballard on the ice at the back of the net and landed three fists (one face, two side of head) before a pile of players and referees smothered the fight.

Ballard is the same skating yutz that slashed his own goaltender’s ear two nights previous.  Krazy Keith swung his stick in frustration after a first period goal.  Instead of hitting his intended target (a goal post) Ballard struck goalie Tomas Vokoun in the side of the head.  Vokoun was taken to the hospital with a deep laceration to his ear.  Ballard went on to ignore his injured goaltender to take another, more successful swing at the post.

Ballard would later issue an apology to Vokoun (who was back on the ice by Saturday,) but not to Anderson.  Craig sat out the week with a neck injury, and Peter filled in magnificently with two wins and one close loss.

Over the five-game road trip, the Avalanche grabbed 7/10 possible points and returned to the #1 spot in the Northwest Division.  Kiss off, Krazy Keith, you can’t ruin our party.

Wed, Dec 9th @ Minnesota Wild (7:00 MST)

Budaj will likely start again tonight, and he’ll look to land the Avs’ first win against some Wild Minnesotans.

Despite three spirited games, the Avalanche have faltered against the division’s bottom-feeding Wild.  Colorado lost one in regulation and two in shootouts, so they nabbed a couple of pity points, but this home game needs to be a decisive win.

Look for the Avalanche to play hard for both their injured star goalie and their suddenly stellar backup after a rockin’ roadtrip.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 4, WILD 1

Fri, Dec 11^th vs Tampa Bay Lightning (7:00 MST)

A week and a half ago Tampa put 33 shots on net against Craig Anderson, and not a single one got through.  The Lightning played a good game (buzzing until the game was out of reach after an Avs empty-netter late in the third,) but Anderson was simply better.

I expect Anderson to play after being listed as day-to-day since the injury.  Being out of the lineup is likely an opportunity to catch Anderson up on lost rest.  He played the most games in the NHL over the first two plus months.  But I guarantee Anderson wants to get back in net.

Watch Craig come in with his usual fire and a little extra against Tampa, and I like the Avalanche to capitalize on the Lightning’s aggressive neutral-zone play.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, LIGHTNING 2

Sun, Dec 13^th vs Calgary Flames (6:00 MST)

I know we’ve had the Flames’ number this year, but Calgary is just too good to lose to us every time.

Twin 3-2 wins at Calgary are nothing less than a slap in the face to Colorado’s top competition for the division… and I expect the Flames to ride into Denver with twin chips on their shoulders as a result.

The Avalanche will need another outstanding goaltending performance to beat Calgary again, but I think the Flames’ D will stand strongest in this game.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 1, FLAMES 2 (SO)

WEEK 9 PREDICTION:  2-1

**Bonus Coverage**

The Ballard Effect

Florida’s Keith Ballard is quickly becoming a noteworthy thug in the National Hockey League… but he’s not big… and he’s not tough… he’s just a fiery idiot.

The result is going to be a lot of attention from opposing enforcers.  That was already the case in two games against Washington and Atlanta, as Ballard spent much of both nights with his face against glass and boards.

But those minor rubs are nothing compared to what awaits Krazy Keith when he takes the ice at Pepsi Center on March 11^th of 2010.  I’m gonna get a ticket.  Double K is going down.

Craig Anderson was a backup in Florida last season, and this was his first game back since signing with the Avalanche in the offseason.  His injury was an instance of damned if you do, damned if you don’t, as Craig could have very well been in net to take Ballard’s stick to the head had he stayed with the Panthers.

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The new Avalanche 3rd Jersey

You would think that losing seven of their last ten games would drop the Avalanche to the middle of the divisional pack.  Not so, thanks to a hot start and a continued dedication to beating the Calgary Flames.

Last week featured three divisional games, and the Avalanche held a third-period lead in each of them.  But Colorado could only convert one of those three late-game leads into points.

If the Avalanche can learn to play with a lead, they will end Week 9 with an extension to their one-point advantage in the Northwest Division.  If not, then this team will fade under the constant pressure to pull off comeback wins in tight games.

Colorado will play an unprecedented five games in eight days, starting tonight and ending next Monday to wrap up their November schedule.  I like this week to produce a return to form for these Avalanche.

Mon, Nov 23^rd vs Philadelphia Flyers (7:00 MST)

Well-rested and back at home after a nasty roadtrip, the Avalanche should turn a slugfest against the Flyers into a W.  After playing three teams that are all too familiar with the Lanche’s playing style, Colorado gets to host a Philadelphia team that is also on a minor losing streak.

This is the only time these two teams will face off this season (barring a wacky Stanley Cup Finals matchup,) and I like the Avalanche to continue their success against the Eastern Conference.  A big part of Colorado’s early-season run was a three-game road stint against East teams where the Avalanche won each in regulation.  This game has a good chance to push into extra time, though, as the Flyers and Avalanche are remarkably evenly matched.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, FLYERS 4 (OT)

Wed, Nov 25^th vs Nashville Predators (7:00 MST)

In the first weeks of the season, Nashville got off to a pitiful start that had them averaging a league-low in goals scored.  They managed a 2-3 home win over the Avalanche in the midst of that lousy start, but will not be so lucky this time playing at the Pepsi Center.

Nashville has continued to struggle in the offensive zone this season, despite climbing back to the middle of the pack in the Central Division.  This game may be closer than I give credit for, but I have a feeling that the Predators’ dismal Power Play percentage will be their undoing in Denver.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 4, PREDATORS 1

Fri, Nov 27^th @ Minnesota Wild (12:00 MST)

&

Sat, Nov 28^th vs Minnesota Wild (7:00 MST)

When Marian Gaborik left Minnesota for New York in the offseason, so went also the Wild’s offense.  Only two teams in the West have scored fewer goals than Minnesota has in 2009 (Predators and Blues), and those teams can at least boast a stout defense.  The Wild’s formerly fearsome defense has faltered this season, as they have allowed goals in droves.

Don’t take that as an endorsement of back-to-back whoopings when these two teams play their home-and-away miniseries this week.  The Wild will play the Avalanche tough at home, where they have logged six of their eight wins.  But seventeen hours later two tired teams will take the ice in Denver, and the Avalanche’s superior youth and offensive depth will shine through.

I like the Avs to log victories both Friday afternoon and Saturday night for a little instant win-streak action.

FRIDAY PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 2, WILD 1

SATURDAY PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 4, WILD 1

Mon, Nov 30^th @ Tampa Bay Lightning (5:30 MST)

The Lightning have played past regulation in an amazing ten games this season.  Equally amazing is that they have only won three of those games, but managed to stay (roughly) on the tail of the Washington Capitals in the Southeast Division race.  Those one-point games add up over the course of a season, and I think Tampa has a chance to upset somebody in the playoffs this season because they play in so many tight games.

But this week the Avalanche will ride into Tampa on two days’ rest and a hot streak, and when the lightning get down by a couple goals early they get blown out.  Let’s hope that this game is the culmination of a stellar return to form for the Avalanche.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, LIGHTNING 3

WEEK 9 PREDICTION:  5-0

**Bonus Coverage**

The Avs’ third jersey unveiling was a disaster, as they got up early and struggled late in a loss to Vancouver.  However, the jerseys themselves are an homage to both the old Sunday jersey (diagonal COLORADO front) and the team’s roots in Quebec (predominantly blue), so they get one big thumb up.

Whether these new sweaters will generate wins (and additional up-thumbs) like the old all-burgundy third jerseys did is still a question mark.  For now, watch this video and enjoy the palpable discomfort of hockey players playing fashion model.  (ftg. Kyle Quincey & Paul Stastny)

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Avs General Manager Greg Sherman w/ scouts Richard Pracey & Alan Hepple

Listen to this recipe for disaster…

Your Captain just retired.  Your GM just turned over the coaching staff and brought in a host of inexperienced young players.  You start the season with two games at home; one against last year’s best regular season team (the San Jose Sharks) and the next against division rival Vancouver.  Then you go on the road for the next seven games, four of them against playoff teams from last season.

With one game to go in that hellish opening run, the Colorado Avalanche are the best team in the Western Conference, have the second-best power play in the league, and celebrated a hugely thrilling victory in Detroit with a flight back home and three days of rest.  Bring on the Wild…

Wed, Oct 21^st @ Minnesota Wild (6:00 MST)

The Wild began the 2009-20010 season with a similarly tough draw.  They lost their opener in Columbus, toughed out an OT win against Anaheim at home, and then lost every game of a five-game road trip.  Now they get to come home and play the 6-1-1 Northwest Division leading Avalanche.

No doubt, Minnesota will be fired up for this game.  They play great defense at home, and if early trends hold the Xcel Energy Center in Minneapolis will be the only place that they score more than two goals a game this year.  Head Coach Todd Richards just promoted 24-year-old Mikko Koivu to team Captain for the ‘09-‘10 season after choosing Captains on a monthly basis the last couple years, so this team will be big-time motivated to go out and get a win.

That aside, Minnesota is offensively-challenged and slow.  They put up four goals against the suddenly defensively inept Ducks, and scored three at Los Angeles in a blowout loss.  Every other game has been a one or two goal affair for the Wild, and that trend will likely continue as they face the stellar goaltending of Craig Anderson and his cadre of veteran defensemen.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 3, MINNESOTA 2

Fri, Oct 23^rd vs. Carolina Hurricanes (7:00 MST)

The Hurricanes are a dangerous team that often underperforms.  They have looked unimpressive on the road this season, getting outscored 4-14 in their three away games.  Continuity has been the most pressing issue for this team, and the remedy is not likely to come in the midst of a four-game road trip.

The Avalanche, win or lose at Minnesota, will be heading back home with the best record in the division.  As much time as Colorado has spent towards the bottom of the division the last few seasons, the Avs will be keyed-in on beating so-so teams at home.  Call that a season-long mission for the Lanche, and expect them to pound out a convincing victory with Detroit coming to town the next night.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 4, CAROLINA 1

Sat, Oct 24^th vs. Detroit Red Wings (7:00 MST)

The Red Wings were the better team for two periods in Detroit last Saturday.  Were it not for the impressive play of Cody McLeod Red Wing Slayer (2G) and rookies Ryan O’Reilly (2A) and Matt Duchene (who scored his first of what will be many NHL goals), this game would have gone down as a W for the Wings.

One week later, the Red Wings will skate on Pepsi Center Ice looking for revenge in no uncertain terms.  Detroit has struggled in the early going this season.  They started off with home and away losses to the speedy St. Louis Blues before winning 3 of 4 to hit the .500 mark.  The Avalanche dumped them unceremoniously below that mark by handing them an OT Loss.

The Wings will most likely come out of their next game in Phoenix with another win.  Pushing them back below the Mendoza Line will be an equally difficult task.  But consider this…

Against speed offenses this season (St. Louis, Buffalo & Colorado) the Wings are 0-4.  The ultra-fast Sabres put six goals past the aging Chris Osgood, and the Avalanche scored most of their goals (including both shootout goals) by making the slow-as-molasses goaltender come across his crease to attempt a stop.  Look for a lot of one-pass-and-shoot hockey in this game, and look for the Avalanche to outscore the Red Wings in this key rematch.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, RED WINGS 4

WEEK 4 PREDICTION:  3-0

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