The Avalanche have struggled mightily without their top goalie and best defenders.

Three weeks after starter Craig Anderson injured his knee during routine warm-ups, Colorado is giving up goals at an alarming rate.  The Avalanche lost four of their five top defenders to a plague of injuries last week, compounding their defensive struggles.

Not that backup goaltender Peter Budaj has been awful, in fact he has played well.

But with the team forced to start predominantly freshman and sophomore defenders in front of Budaj, Anderson’s absence has taken its toll.  Colorado hung tough through two periods against Calgary last week before falling apart late.  Then the Avs were kicked around by Detroit for two periods before mounting a furious comeback attempt that fell short.

Injuries and inconsistency aside, the Avalanche are lucky to be 8-7-1 in a Western Conference that features only two clubs with losing records.

Monday, November 15^th vs St Louis Blues (6:00 MST)

Colorado will come out strong and try to put down the dangerous Blues early.

St Louis is on a three-game losing streak after rocketing to the top of the West in October.  Only a road-heavy schedule has kept them from staying there.  The Blues play great defense and sport two solid goaltenders, most notably Czech starter Jaroslav Halak.

In this nationally-televised game (Versus), the Avalanche should be able to take advantage of a team struggling to score goals away from home.  However, if the Blues get on the board first, it could be a long night for Colorado.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 4, Blues 3

Wednesday, November 17^th vs San Jose Sharks (7:00 MST)

Colorado & San Jose have both failed to record three consecutive wins in the ultra-competitive Western Conference this season.  The Sharks will have a chance to do so while playing host to the West-leading Kings Monday night, but Colorado still looks to be a long way from such consistency.

An interesting note for this contest is that Swedish referee Marcus Vinneborg will work only the second NHL game ref’ed by a European.

San Jose is a tough matchup for Colorado when the Avalanche are at 100%, and right now the Avs still list five key players on Injured Reserve.  Unless Colorado’s young defensive call-ups can find a way to shut down the Sharks, the ‘Lanche will have trouble competing all game long.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 1, Sharks 3

Friday, November 19^th vs New York Rangers (7:00 MST)

Simply put, the Rangers are an average team in a weak conference.  When they venture out West, they get roughed up.  Their defense and goaltending are questionable and their offense is banged-up.

The Avalanche made quick work of this club in New York, and should have little trouble burying the Rangers in Colorado behind a highlight reel of goals.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 5, Rangers 3

Saturday, November 20^th @ Dallas Stars (6:00 MST)

The Stars’ up-and-down season has mirrored Colorado’s in that neither club can win consistently versus a wealth of solid Western Conference opposition.

Dallas played strong out of the gate, winning their first four games, but three of those contests took post-regulation play to secure a victory.  The Stars have posted two three-game losing streaks in 11 games since, and their early season would be a complete disaster if not for a 5-1 record against the inferior East.

Colorado handed the Stars a 5-0 whuppin’ in Dallas earlier this month, and the Stars’ sorry goaltending situation has not improved since.  Look for both teams to net a handful of goals apiece, with the Avalanche coming out on top in a free-skating scorefest.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 6, Stars 4

**BONUS COVERAGE**

Last season the Avalanche were beset by injuries to top offensive players.  A plethora of first and second-year players were brought up from Lake Erie to fill in.  The happy byproduct was a club with unmatched scoring depth to begin the 2010 campaign.

Now Colorado has seen its defensive front crumble under similar circumstances.  Top defenders Adam Foote, Kyle Cumiskey, Ryan Wilson & Kyle Quincey have all missed significant playing time.  Only Scott Hannan & John-Michael Liles remain healthy out of the Avs’ best six defensemen.

The result has been rookie call-ups Colby Cohen, Jonas Holos & Kevin Shattenkirk getting valuable NHL-level playing time.  Both Cohen & Holos have been outstanding physical assets given their youth and inexperience, and Shattenkirk looks to make strides once he shakes free from his rookie jitters.

By the end of this season, the Avalanche may be working out a deep defensive corps to pair with their unmatched young offensive talent.

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When a visit from the Calgary Flames elicits a sigh of relief, you know the Western Conference has gotten rough.

Through 13 games Colorado is hanging tough in the middle of both the Northwest Division & the Western Conference.  Despite losing goaltender Craig Anderson to injury, the Avalanche have continued to win tight games by virtue of their scoring depth.  A 3-1 loss last week to the very good Vancouver Canucks broke up a string of 5-goal games that was renewed with Saturday’s 5-0 romp in Dallas.

Tuesday, November 9^th vs Calgary Flames (7:30 MST)

The Avalanche will look to extend an embarrassing stretch of four consecutive losses for the Flames that dropped them from the top of the division to near the bottom.  Calgary continues to struggle on offense, as they did the last two seasons.  Consecutive 1-2 losses to Detroit & Minnesota make them unlikely winners coming to Denver.

Colorado probably won’t keep its 5-goal streak alive tonight, but the likely return of key role-player David Jones to the lineup bodes well for a win.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 3, Flames 2

Friday, November 12^th @ Columbus Blue Jackets (5:00 MST)

Peter Budaj had a great game in net for the Avalanche in a 5-1 victory over Columbus a couple weeks ago.  That rout took place in Denver, and the Avalanche actually play better on the road.  Given the Blue Jackets’ woeful attendance and average offense, Columbus will again have nothing to counter Colorado’s far superior team ferocity and speed.

Call it a win for the Avalanche and a move to the upper half of the packed Western Conference standings.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 4, Blue Jackets 2

Saturday, November 13^th @ Detroit Red Wings (5:00 MST)

It was Peter Budaj spelling a healthy Craig Anderson that led to a rousing 5-4 SO victory for the Avalanche in Detroit earlier this season.   Peter was stellar in that deciding shootout three games into the season, stopping all six Detroit shooters.

Now the de facto starter, Budaj and the Avs D will need to play better in regulation to steal another win at the Joe.  The Red Wings have returned to top-o-conference form, and are a force to be reckoned with especially at home.

Colorado already got their gutsy (slightly lucky) win in Detroit this season when the Red Wings were still working to find a groove.  Now the Wings have clamped down on defense with young goalie Jimmy Howard holding sway between the posts.  Not a good sign for the Avalanche.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 3, Red Wings 5

**BONUS COVERAGE**

The Avalanche are a work in progress on defense, but their offense is capable of scoring on the Best of the West.

Consider this: Colorado has the second-most goals in the Western Conference with 45 in 13 games.  That’s good for a gaudy 3.5 goals per game.  The only team with more scores?  The Chicago Blackhawks whose 50 goals have come in 17 games which factors out to a much less impressive 2.9 goals per game.

In a Western Conference stacked with tough defensive teams the Avalanche find a way to score 3+ goals almost every night.  Crummy defense or not, Colorado will continue to win high-scoring games against the league’s top teams.

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The 2010 Draft was loaded with talent, but the Nuggets got no help for their aging and ineffective front line.  Denver had no draft picks to play with… again.

Meanwhile, the rest of the West’s contenders got bigger to match up against the length of the NBA Champion LA Lakers.

The Rest of the West gets better…

Oklahoma City, after being knocked out of the 2010 Playoffs by the Lakers, picked up the 6’-11” Cole Aldrich (Kansas) from New Orleans and the 7’-1” Tibor Pleiss (Germany) to improve their chances against LA.

San Antonio, whose lineup is ancient by comparison to the young Thunder, grabbed the 6’-11” Ryan Richards (England).  Dallas improved its height via trade last season, picking up the 7’ tall Brendan Haywood before falling to the cagy Spurs in the playoffs.

The Lakers’ Pacific Division punching bags, Sacramento & Golden State, used their high 1^st Round Picks in the 2010 Draft to grab big, mean shot-blockers to contend with LA’s enormous frontcourt of Odom, Gasol & Bynum.  Sacramento netted DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky), the most coveted big in this year’s draft at 6’-11” and an imposing 270 pounds.  Golden State picked up the 6’-9” Ekpe Udoh (Baylor) to shore up their shoddy defense, that they might finally win a few of their regular season scoring sprints versus the Lakers.

Even the Lakers’ 2009 Finals opponent, the Orlando Magic, used its sole 1^st Round Pick on 6’-10” Power Forward Daniel Orton.  The Magic do not lack for height with Dwight Howard roaming the paint, but understand that to summit the NBA mountain is to outreach the Lakers at any cost.

Oh, and how about those NBA Champion Lakers?  They improved their own stable of big men by drafting two 6’-9” forwards.  LA added Devin Ebanks (West Virginia) and Derrick Caracter (UTEP) via two 2^nd Round Picks.  With their biggest question marks at guard and small forward, the Lakers continue to draft size first.

Where does that leave the Nuggets?

Each of the Denver bigs are a potential liability at this point in their careers.

Chris “Birdman” Andersen is a crowd favorite and an imposing presence when healthy.  But each season The Bird fades as spring approaches, and Chris was a non-factor late in the year.  Even coming off the bench both Andersen’s age (31) and the hard-charging, high-energy style with which he plays are catching up with him.

It certainly didn’t help that Andersen spent the latter half of the regular season trying to fill the very large shoes of Kenyon Martin.  K-Mart is the defensive heart of this Denver team, and his history of knee injuries looms large on the Nuggets’ future.

Kenyon’s early-season form saw a player capable of dominating games from the paint and helping to stretch opposing defenses with a reliable shot from the top of the key.  But when Martin returned from expedited injury recovery in time for the 2010 Playoffs he looked tentative, not tenacious.  That reliable shot Kenyon spent the offseason working on was too strong, forced even, and the Nuggets had to watch Carlos Boozer knock down the very same troublesome jumper for Utah as the Jazz trounced Denver for a playoff series win.

Meanwhile Nene, who has always struggled with issues of toughness in the rough ‘n tumble paints of the NBA, could not hold the center of the Nuggets’ defense without Kenyon & Birdman at 100%.  When Denver’s offense is humming, Nene can use his superior speed and quickness to take advantage of slower centers.  However, he has never been one to force the issue on his own offensively or bear the brunt of an opposing attack on defense.  Without big help on either end of the court, Nene’s numbers deflated precipitously through the end of the 2010 season.

In that dismal playoff series versus Utah, the Nuggets were outworked and outschemed as a result of their less effective paint personnel, in addition to being thoroughly outcoached in the absence of head coach George Karl.

Where does Denver go from here?

The unfortunately likely answer is down…

Down in size as Birdman and K-Mart become less effective.  Down the standings as other Western Conference powers improve.  And down the draft chart into the teen neighborhood of picks as a result.

Unless the Nuggets’ front office can wheel and deal for the likes of Chris Bosh (Denver was not on his list of preferred cities to play in), then we will have to hope that Kenyon’s knees hold, that Birdman can be energy off the bench instead of a late season burnout, and that Denver never, ever has to rely on Johan Petro to start a game ever again.

Help is certainly not coming in the form of up-and-coming big men, as Denver has failed to take on a power forward or center through the draft since Nene in 2002.

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If not for a Kenyon Martin layup, the Nuggets would have gone the first seven & a half minutes of the 1^st Quarter without scoring a single point.  That, combined with atrocious, stationary defense, gave the Suns a quick 18-2 lead over the visiting Nuggets.

Denver struggled so mightily through the opening salvo that they had a paltry 5 points at the midway point in the quarter.

Down 15 with 4:22 left in the 1^st, Carmelo Anthony nailed a tough 21-foot jumper.  JR Smith followed from 18 for 2, 25 for 3 & 26 for 3.  Chauncey nailed a 25-footer of his own on the next trip down the court to bring the Nuggets within 8 points at 23-31.

Unfortunately, Denver’s run fell short and the Suns called a quick timeout to right the ship.  By the end of the opening quarter, Phoenix had inflated its lead back to 12.

Most of the 2^nd Quarter was a back-and-forth slugfest that slowed to a crawl as the referees took over the flow of the game.  Neither team was able to gather any major momentum as casual contact became fouls.  Phoenix dropped a couple of key threes to stretch their lead.

That lead hovered around 16 points until Phoenix called a timeout with 2:35 left in the half.

Denver came out stout on defense, but started missing jumpers in bunches.  The Suns maintained their scoring pace, dropping 11 more to end the half up 70-49.

Even without the Nuggets’ early game struggles, they only shot 38% in the half against 56% for Phoenix.  And despite their spat of threes to close the gap in the 1^st Quarter, Denver started a dry run from deep that spanned the remainder of the half.  That translates to 3 of 10 versus 8 of 12 from beyond the arc and a breezy 21-point Suns lead.

That first half buzzer might as well have signaled the end of the game.

Denver was able to bring the Phoenix lead down to 13 midway through the 3^rd Quarter, but the Suns called a timeout and re-established their dominance.  An 11-2 Phoenix run coming out of that timeout effectively ended the Denver threat by expanding the lead to 22 points.

TNT must have been delighted to have such a barn-burner as their showcase game this late in the season.  No doubt Denver audiences bailed on Altitude early too.  The refs slowed the game with whistles to quell the brewing bad blood as the game got physical.

The final score in the Nuggets’ final game of the regular season was an embarrassing 101-123 depantsing.

The loss relegates the Denver Nuggets to a likely 5^th seed, as the Utah Jazz control their destiny in the race for the Northwest Division after a win at Golden State.  Phoenix travels to Salt Lake City tomorrow night to settle the Western Conference seeding with the Jazz.  Only a Suns victory can save the Nuggets from their late-season decent from 1-seed contenders to the 5-seed and a hellish road to the Finals.

The best Denver can now finish is the 4th playoff slot, a 1st round date with the Jazz, and a temporary home-court advantage. Should Utah beat the Suns tomorrow night, the Nuggets will open the 1st round on the road in Phoenix.

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The Colorado Avalanche had the worst record in the Western Conference in 2009.  Now they have the worst record of the 8 West contenders for Lord Stanley’s Cup.  That is an impressive leap for one of the youngest teams in the league.

But can Colorado manufacture a first-round upset in hockey’s second season?

Starting this Wednesday, April 14^th the Avalanche will travel to San Jose to open their 12^th trip to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  Colorado began their surprise season with a 5-2 thumping of the Sharks on the same night that the Avalanche retired Joe Sakic’s #19 to the Pepsi Center rafters.

In fact, Colorado split the season series with San Jose 2-2 on the strength of that opening win and a 5-4 OT victory on April 4^th.  The two games between were tight, evenly-matched affairs that ended in 1-3 & 3-4 losses at San Jose.

The top-seeded Sharks play incredibly well in San Jose, and the Colorado Avalanche will need to find a way to win a close game at the Shark Tank to steal the series.  For all the Sharks’ regular season success in San Jose, playoff demons lurk there as well…

San Jose Sharks recent playoff history

San Jose has made an early exit from the playoffs every year since their ascension to NHL elite status during the 2003-2004 season.

2003-2004 the Sharks upended the Avalanche on their way to the Western Conference Finals.  San Jose lost that series in 6 games to the Calgary Flames, and their playoff troubles have been well documented ever since.

2004-2005 season was cancelled due to a league-wide lockout.  The Sharks would have had considerable momentum going into that season, and the labor dispute definitely played a part in killing San Jose’s newfound playoff mojo.

2005-2006 ended with a 6-game loss to the Edmonton Oilers in the second round after the Sharks took a 2-0 series lead.  The Oilers would go on to play in the Cup Finals.

2006-2007 fizzled as well, as the Sharks dominated the Nashville Predators for the second consecutive season with a 4-1 first round domination, only to give up a 2-1 series lead to the Detroit Red Wings in a 6-game series loss.

2007-2008 was another disappointment with the Sharks ceding to the middling Dallas Stars in another second round fade that carried on the home-ice killing tradition of losing in 6 games to lesser teams.  Head Coach Ron Wilson was fired as a result, and Todd McLellan took over in the offseason.

2008-2009 may have been the most damaging playoff series in San Jose’s history (remarkable considering the history) as the Sharks dropped another 6-game series on the road to the division rival Anaheim Ducks.  That loss to the 8^th-seeded Ducks came after winning the President’s Trophy for the best regular season record in the NHL.

Upset Special, Made to Order

The Colorado Avalanche are a matchup nightmare for the Sharks for a lot of reasons.  Chief among them is San Jose’s propensity for losing to scrappy young opponents in the playoffs, but just as important is Colorado’s offensive depth.

Because of a season filled with injuries that have effected every single scoring line, the Avalanche can roll out a wide assortment of forwards that have well-established chemistry.  Each line is capable of rolling through the neutral zone with incredible speed, and even the team’s muckers sport a surprising scoring touch.

The Avalanche have nowhere near the defensive fortitude that the Sharks have, but they can score on anybody.

The Avs can throw their own recent playoff history out the window.

This Avalanche squad bears only a vague resemblance to teams of playoffs past.  And that resemblance is born out only in the grizzled visage of veteran blue-liner Adam Foote, and the still-youthful speed of Milan Hejduk.  Even with the re-acquisition of former Colorado stalwart Stephane Yelle, the new Avalanche are young to the core.

The Avs’ Centers read like a who’s who of North American Junior & College Hockey over the last 5 seasons.

Matt Duchene, Ryan O’Reilly, Kevin Porter, Paul Stastny & Ryan Stoa are all under 25 years old.  Only Chris Durno (mucker), Matt Hendricks (hammer) and Yelle are older.

The Youth Movement extends through the team’s wingers as well.

Cody McLeod & David Jones toe the line at 25 years old, while TJ Galiardi, Peter Mueller, Chris Stewart & Brandon Yip are younger.  The rarely-used David Koci is 28 and speed-demon Marek Svatos is 27.  Only Darcy Tucker (35) and Hejduk (34) could truly be considered veterans out of the team’s 10 wing-men.

And while the Avalanche defense is thick with veterans, three of eight defenders stand out as shockingly young.  Kyle Cumiskey (23), Kyle Quincey (24) & Ryan Wilson (23) each skate in a defensive pairing with a much older teammate, and they facilitate the speed-first attitude of this Colorado team.

Which brings us to the #1 reason why the Avalanche have a very viable opportunity to upset the San Jose Sharks.

Colorado is fast.  Really fast.  And the Sharks are slow.  Really slow.

San Jose predicates its game on disciplined movement out of their defensive zone, and methodical, cycling hockey in the offensive zone.  The Sharks are a hulking team that prefers to set up screened shots high and post mammoth centers up front.

But the Avalanche have within them two great assets against such a strategy: dedicated shot-blockers that have the speed and gall to disrupt up high, and a quick, agile goalie that, at his best, sees the puck through screens and eats up rebounds with regularity.

Now, Avalanche goaltender Craig Anderson has had a rough time over the last 15 games, and there is very real possibility that he carried too much of a burden through the regular season (most ice-time and most shots faced in the league).  No doubt, Colorado will need Andy to be at the top of his game against the Sharks, or San Jose’s superior puck control and defense will steamroll the Avalanche into submission.

But the ingredients are all there for Colorado to extend San Jose’s playoff woes.  If Peter Mueller can come back healthy at 100% for this series, and Anderson can step up the way he did in the first half of the season, then the Avalanche could be looking at Saturday, April 24^th at Pepsi Center (Game 6) as the day they swallowed the Sharks.

COLORADO AVALANCHE VS SAN JOSE SHARKS SERIES SCHEDULE

Wed, Apr 14 @ San Jose 8:30 PM MST on Versus

Fri, Apr 16 @ San Jose 8:30 PM MST on Versus

Sun, Apr 18 @ Colorado 7:30 PM MST on Versus

Tue, Apr 20 @ Colorado 8:00 PM MST on Versus

Thu, Apr 22 @ San Jose 8:30 PM MST on Versus

Sat, Apr 24 @ Colorado TBA

Mon, Apr 26 @ San Jose TBA

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The Denver Nuggets looked asleep at the wheel for at least half of their 98-96 win over the LA Lakers on Thursday night.  Luckily, Los Angeles rested Kobe Bryant’s sore knee and finger in preparation for the playoff defense of their 2009 title.

The Nuggets imposed their will on the Lakers at times, but slipped into mini-comas every time they took a lead.

This pattern was eerily reminiscent of every game Denver has played against sub-.500 teams this season… which the Lakers may well be without Kobe Bryant to bail them out in the closing seconds of every third game.

Ron Artest & Paul Gasol played admirably with Bryant out, but the rest of the Lakers, including head coach Phil Jackson, looked confused and disoriented without their ace in the hole.  LA managed to take Denver to the wire, and the whole messy game came down to one Lakers possession with time running out.

So, with Kobe sidelined, who takes the clutch shot from beyond the arc with the game on the line?

Here were Phil Jackson’s options at guard, along with their field goal makes vs. attempts on the night.

Sasha Vujacic? (3-12)

Shannon Brown? (3-12)

Jordan Farmar? (3-8)

Derek Fisher? (2-11)

None of these options looked particularly appealing from where Los Angeles coach Phil Jackson was sitting as the Lakers prepared to inbound the ball with 0:12 left in the game.  JR Smith had just made 1 of 2 free throws to put Denver up by 2… surely Jackson would use one of his two remaining timeouts to draw up a play that finds the open man.

No?  Really?

Well, it makes sense in a way.  Ol’ Phil has always had a clutch performer to handle such situations.  Suggestions that Jackson is little more than a glorified personality manager sound strangely plausible at times like these.

Here’s the plan on a normal night in the coaching life of Phil Jackson:

Somebody gets Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant the ball.  They dribble for a while, head-fake for flavor, and then bury the contested game-winning shot.  It’s a simple formula, but when your coaching resume consists of the Chicago Bulls Dynasty & the LA Lakers Dynasty, certain decisions become very easy.

No Michael?  No Kobe?  Paralysis…

With 0:12 remaining and Denver up by 2, the Lakers inbounded from the Nuggets’ end.

Phil Jackson is shown by TNT cameras sitting placidly on the sideline, his eyes glassed over, clearly immobilized in indecision.

Derek Fisher dribbles out 0:10 worth of clock with Carmelo Anthony crouched in front of him.  With 0:02 left, Fisher glances to his right as though he might actually pass with time expiring, and then makes his best Kobe Bryant impression…

Unfortunately for Derek, he is 6’2” tall.  Carmelo Anthony is 6’8” tall with very long arms.  Also unfortunate for Mr. Fisher, he is not Kobe Bryant nor so much as a serviceable stand-in.

Fisher rears to shoot, and before his arms can even come fully forward Carmelo meets his hand with a sort of high-five block.

(A note to Lakers fans: the hand is part of the ball where shot-blocking and foul-calling are concerned.  I write this because I know you do not know this.  Were Kobe Bryant to receive a similar high-five block, an erroneous foul would have been called.  If not, Kobe would have put on his best tantrum face and stalked off the court, leading confused yellow-clad Hell-A dwellers to think that a foul should have been called.  You can thank me for the clarification later.)

After the high-five block, the ball sails about 6 feet up and 3 feet forward in a short, neutered arc.  Time expires.  Nuggets win.

With the victory, Denver moved into 2^nd place in the Western Conference.  The Nuggets play two more home games and then finish their season at Phoenix.  Amazingly, if the Lakers fail to win any of their last four games, and Denver wins out, the Nuggets will take the top seed via a thorough domination of the season series.

Not that Kobe Bryant would ever let that happen, but it is a comforting thought as Denver battles for playoff position with Dallas, Phoenix & Utah.

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The Nuggets’ 98-94 edging of the driven Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday displayed the offensive dynamism and (occasional) sharp defensive rotation that Denver has been lacking for most the last two weeks.

After losing five of six games in ten days, the Nuggets had fallen back into the pack of teams chasing the #2 seed in the Western Conference.  They got brutalized in Dallas, losing the season series versus the Mavericks after sweeping them out of the playoffs in ’09.  New York, Orlando & Boston rounded out four ugly road losses in a five-game swing.

Then Denver came home, and as has happened so often in the last two seasons, rediscovered their mojo with some Pepsi Center magic.

This time it came against the Portland Trailblazers.  A contentious first half blew up into a 109-92 victory by a Nuggets team that played looser on offense and tighter on defense over the final 15 minutes.  Denver followed with a similar late-game thumping of the LA Clippers, fighting back from a 21-point first half deficit for an 8-point win.

Now a hard-fought win in Oklahoma City where JR Smith had a defensive breakout and the forgotten Arron Afflalo had his best game in a solid month.  Afflalo was an incredible +17 in a 4-point win.  JR nabbed 4 steals and 2 blocks.

Kevin Durant was incredible a night after getting egregiously fouled on what would have been a game-winning 3-point OT winner at Utah… and then standing dumfounded as time expired with no foul call.  (See: Carmelo Anthony five years ago)

And so Denver is back in a 3-way tie for the 2-seed with Dallas on top and Phoenix below.  (Utah dropped one in Houston to descend to the middle of the playoff field.)

The Nuggets will finish their final week at home versus the Lakers, Spurs & Grizzlies before traveling to Phoenix to take on the Suns.  Depending on how Dallas handles their easier schedule, the Nuggets may be in a one-on-one battle with the Suns right up to their regular season finale.

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The Denver Nuggets’ playoff seed could be #2 in the Western Conference.  Then again, it could be #8.

With 5 games left, even LA could lose every game and potentially get lifted from their slot as the #1 seed.  (Don’t worry Lakers Nation… they’re waiting for the playoffs to choke.)

Four teams currently sit at 50 wins, 27 losses.

The Nuggets (#3) are among them, tucked just below the Dallas Mavericks (#2) and above the Utah Jazz (#4) & the Phoenix Suns (#5).  The Lakers are a win away from clinching the top spot in the West, and both the Oklahoma City Thunder & San Antonio Spurs are within striking distance of everybody, but unlikely to make the leap.

We’ll know all about OKC’s chances of charging the upper echelon of the playoff field by Friday, as they play Utah, Denver & Phoenix all in a row between now and then.

All of the various tiebreakers could make it a circus to sort out.  Really, so many different potential realities exist over the next week that I have decided to point out the most crucial games by bolding them above.  It’s the best I can do to make sense of the coming madness.

Here’s how it all shakes out…

Dallas controls its destiny as the current #2 seed.

They will face off against Memphis tonight (win) and then travel to Portland (loss) & Sacramento (win) on consecutive nights.  The Mavericks will finish a 3-game West Coast swing in LA against the Clippers (blowout win) one week from today.  They finish their season at home versus the San Antonio Spurs (loss) who have slowly, methodically battled their way to the #7 seed.

Dallas looks likely to hold onto their position at the top of the heap, but have been inconsistent all season.  As Dirk goes, so do the Mavericks.

Final 5 Prediction: 3-2

Phoenix is a long-shot to catch up from the #5 slot

The Suns have been on a tear, winning 24 of their last 30 games.  They welcome the Spurs to Phoenix on Wednesday (win) before traveling to Oklahoma City (loss) on Friday.  Then they return home for two games in three nights against Houston (win) & Denver (win) before heading immediately to Utah (loss) a night later to close out their season.

The Suns are a dangerous team entering the playoffs, but will be too tired traveling to Utah the night after a home game versus the Nuggets to catch up to Dallas in the standings.

Final 5 Prediction: 3-2

Utah sits at #4 looking up at the NW Division title

The Jazz are a serious danger to the Nuggets in the NW Division title race.  Denver won the season series, so Utah will have to out-win the Nuggets from here on.  But they have an interesting mix of easy teams on the road and tough teams at home.  Not a good combination for a club that struggles outside of Salt Lake City

Tomorrow night the Jazz will welcome a dangerous team to town in the Oklahoma City Thunder (win), but Utah has handled the Thunder very well in the past.  The Jazz then go on a 3-game swing through Houston (loss), New Orleans (win) and Golden State (loss) before coming home to face Phoenix (win) a night later.

That’s right, Utah and Phoenix will meet in SLC for an all-out battle on April 14^th to close the season.  Luckily the game is on ESPN so everyone can watch the fireworks.

Final 5 Prediction: 3-2

The Nuggets probably need to win 4 of 5 to improve beyond the #3

Even then, a loss to Phoenix on the final night of the Nuggets’ regular season could spell doom for their seeding if the Suns can hold par until then.  In fact, Denver is the most vulnerable team in this field with injuries to Kenyon Martin & Chris Andersen still handicapping their frontcourt.  The Nuggets have taken a big (6’11”) step towards fixing that problem.

On top of all that, the Nuggets will be without head coach George Karl, likely well into the postseason.  That means Adrian Dantley will be on an island making the tough decisions about how to handle bumps in the road along the way.

And bumps there will be, as the Nuggets head to Oklahoma City (loss) on Wednesday before coming home to face the Lakers (win) on Thursday night.  Then the rising San Antonio Spurs (win) come to town Saturday, followed by Memphis (big, thumping win) on Monday.  The final test will be in Phoenix next Tuesday, and that game is likely to mean the difference between potentially two or three spots on the playoff ladder for both teams.  Call it serendipity, the whole nation will watch that battle live on TNT.

Final 5 Prediction: 3-2

You may have noticed that I predicted each team to finish 3-2 over their last 5 games.  This is no fluke.  It is not a designed reading of schedules intended to raise the tension.  No, this is actually how I expect the final 5 games to shake out.

If the breaks go as predicted, even if Denver loses to the Suns in their final regular season game, then the Nuggets will hold onto their current seed.  Phoenix will have won the season series, but Denver would move forward as the #3 so long as they stay on par with Utah and ahead of Oklahoma City to win the NW Division.  (The Lakers will almost assuredly win the Suns’ Pacific Division.)

So get to a TV if you can, find a bar with the full NBA package if you must, but watch as many of these games as you can.  It may just be a warm up for the Main Event, but this next week is going to be one hell of a show.

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Peter Mueller had two goals and one assist in the Colorado Avalanche’s desperation OT win versus San Jose on Sunday night.

Unfortunately, the big win against the West’s best team was marred by a dirty blind-side hit on Mueller by ex-Av Rob Blake.

You may remember Blake as the shifty creep who screwed the Avalanche into paying him while he played for the LA Kings.  Now, he will also be remembered as the slow old defender who couldn’t keep up with Mueller and the rest of the speedy Avalanche forwards… so he took the coward’s way out again.

With the game tied at 4, Mueller swung down behind the San Jose net to meet a dumped puck.  Blake hit him on his left shoulder from behind, sending Peter head-first into the boards.  No penalty was called on the play (boarding!) and San Jose got a temporary 5 on 4 rush while Peter lay immobile in the Sharks’ end.

Even Altitude’s commentators made excuses for the Blake hit on Mueller, but it was clearly a dirty hit from behind by a player who had been beaten by speed.  The Sharks have long been cursed in the playoffs despite their outstanding regular season performances.  May Rob Blake bring a new era of playoff curses to San Jose.

Blake deserves nothing less than to be force-fed a Cody McCleod knuckle sandwich.  ‘Nuf said.

The officials invented a make-up call at the end of regulation a few minutes later.

The Avalanche started the 5-minute sudden death overtime period with a Power Play, but couldn’t generate any offense in the rare 4 on 3 situation.

Despite a failure to pressure San Jose during the man-advantage, the Avalanche were able to press the Sharks at 4 on 4.  In fact, the Sharks were never able to get a full change after the Penalty Kill, as Colorado didn’t let San Jose clears get beyond the Neutral Zone.

The result was a great slap-shot by Ryan Wilson that got redirected past Evgeni Nabokov for the game-winning goal.  The embattled John-Michael Liles got the blade of his stick on the puck, and Nabokov never stood a chance on the redirection.  A beautiful goal to end an ugly game.

The Avalanche were down 0-2 after 9 minutes of play.

Sharks Douglas Murray and Jamie McGinn scored 56 seconds apart in the opening frame, and it looked like Colorado’s season was continuing into the crapper.  San Jose was thoroughly dominating play, and got the first Power Play of the game a minute and a half later when Kyle Quincey was called for Tripping.

Then, after a nice Penalty Kill, Ryan O’Reilly was able to clear the Avalanche Zone with a pass to Quincey as he exited the penalty box.  Kyle took the puck in on a clean break and scored to Nabakov’s right on a great wrister.

The Avalanche would score the next two goals, as Peter Mueller took over the game.

Mueller scored on a solo break and an assisted break with Matt Duchene, those scores coming just over 4 minutes apart.  That put the Avalanche up 3-2.

Colorado had been coming out strong in 3^rd Periods for two weeks without generating any goals.  This time it only took the Avalanche 20 seconds to increase their lead in this must-win home game.  Future Captain Paul Stastny got the goal, assisted by Milan Hejduk and the still dominant Peter Mueller.

The 2-goal lead wasn’t enough for the shaky Colorado defense, though.

Two of San Jose’s biggest contributors came through for the Sharks through the remainder of the final period.  Patrick Marleau & Joe Pavelski jumped on missed defensive assignments in both cases to tie the game at 4 apiece.

The Avalanche got what they needed in the end, grabbing two points in the super-tight race for the Western Conference’s 8^th and final playoff spot.  After losing on Friday to Calgary, the Avs’ prime competitor in the standings, it looked like a long road to the playoffs for Colorado.

Then Calgary lost 1-4 in Chicago, and the Avalanche cleaned up a sloppy defensive performance for the win over San Jose.  Suddenly Colorado is back to a 2-point lead over the Flames with 4 games left to play.  Calgary has only 3 games left and lost the season series to the Avalanche.  Colorado is also ahead in total wins on the season.

That gives the Avalanche the top two tiebreakers, a game in hand, and two points on their biggest threat as the regular season winds down.

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Devin Setoguchi scored the deciding goal for the Sharks, but the Avalanche look every bit a playoff team with 7 games to go

It would have been easy for the Avalanche to let a season filled with bad breaks drag them back to the bottom of the Western Conference.  The Avs have gone from 1^st to 8^th in the West, and are now threatened with missing the playoffs after a great comeback season.

Despite a sea of injuries dating back to the second month of the season, this very young Colorado team keeps battling for a playoff spot.

The Avs sport the second-most man-minutes lost to injury this season, but they keep finding new contributors.  They keep inventing new ways to keep the machine rolling forward, and each game separates them further from a terrible 2008-2009 campaign.

The latest hero for the Avalanche has been the young Kevin Porter, but Sunday night’s game at San Jose saw both Phoenix representatives of the Wolski trade stepping up for the Burgundy & Blue.  Porter got his 3^rd point in as many games with a back-handed slap through traffic to tie the game at 1-1 early in the 2^nd Period.  Peter Mueller followed with his 10^th goal of the season, 7 of those scores coming in his 12 games with the Avalanche.

Mueller’s tally put the Avalanche up 2-1 just past the halfway point in the game, but the Sharks evened it at 2 apiece inside two minutes left in the 2^nd Period.

That set up a fiery 3^rd Period.

The Sharks have to play the Avalanche physical, because Colorado has such great team speed.  The result is typically a lot of Power Plays for the Avalanche, but the referees swallowed their whistles in San Jose in the 3^rd Period.  Kyle Cumiskey took a passing punch to the side of his head a few minutes after the Sharks went up on an unassisted deflection goal by Dan Boyle.  No call on the play, no calls in the 3^rd Period.

The worst no-call of the night came in the 2^nd Period.

Dany Heatley cross-checked Paul Stastny brutally to the ice, took the resulting turnover into the Avalanche zone, and almost scored.  A shameful miss from a veteran officiating squad led by Bill McCreary.

Cumiskey would come back from that nasty head hit to put his next shot off the San Jose post, and Peter Mueller knocked the rebound in despite his stick being held by a Sharks defender.  That knotted the game back up at 3-3.

From there the game got frantic, with the two teams trading series of dominant shifts.  Really, the Avalanche were the better team on the night, but struggled to score against backup San Jose goaltender Thomas Greiss.  Colorado out-shot the Sharks 45-32 over the course of the game, skated & passed well throughout, and generally looked like the more dangerous playoff team.

San Jose, however, would have the final word in this contest.

Devin Setoguchi scored his second goal of the game on another deflection in the Avalanche crease.  4-3 San Jose, and that score held up despite a flurry from the Avalanche for the final five minutes.

The Sharks are at their best when they have big bodies down low and the room to shoot from on high.  That was the story for all but one San Jose goal tonight, and Setoguchi’s game-winner exemplified why the Avalanche will have to be more physical in the playoffs to win a series.  This is especially true because, if the playoff field holds, Colorado will face off against San Jose in the 1^st Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

There were a lot of positives to take away from this hard-fought game in San Jose.

First, the Sharks play their best hockey at home, and the Avalanche were competitive throughout.  That coupled with the less than favorable looks from the referees means that Colorado can definitely win a highly-scrutinized playoff game at HP Pavilion in San Jose.

Second, the Avalanche will be at home for 5 of their remaining 7 games.  If Colorado plays as well as they did tonight against the West-leading Sharks, they should win enough of those games to make the Conference Playoff field.

Third, the puck bounced badly for the Avalanche in this game and the last at Phoenix.  These Avs look good to come home, get some good breaks, and work hard for the victories they need to hold off Calgary for the 8^th.  Anything more could mean a rapid rise in the standings, as the Avalanche sit just 3 points back from 5^th place Nashville with a game in hand.

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