Both myself and the Avalanche took a month-long break since my last Preview article on December 21^st.  I took the time to cover Denver’s changing political landscape in my capacity as the Denver Political Buzz Examiner and Denver Page One Examiner.

Meanwhile, the Avalanche played a sleepy 12-game stretch that dropped them to 8^th place in the Western Conference.  Colorado’s four wins over that stretch were simply not good enough to keep them competitive, and injuries finally began to affect their formerly league-leading offense.

Now, there were some bright spots during that otherwise dismal run.

On January 4^th the Avs pulled out a thrilling OT win versus the Buffalo Sabres in Denver.  On January 10^th they held onto a one-goal lead for the latter half of the 3^rd Period in beating back the (then) NHL-best Detroit Red Wings.  And on January 14^th the Avalanche did something they almost never do – pounded the Wild in Minnesota with a dominant 4-1 victory.

In fact, aside from a 6-game stretch around Christmas & New Years where they went 1-4-1, the Avalanche made the most of Survival Mode.  They are still a playoff team with a couple games in hand over their nearest pursuer, but to stay ahead of teams like San Jose & Los Angeles the Colorado Avalanche will need to rediscover scoring consistency in a hurry.

Tuesday, January 18^th vs Vancouver Canucks (7:00 MST)

Let us not mince words; the Vancouver Canucks have manhandled the Avalanche so far this season.  The ‘Nucks sit at the top of the NHL with 64 points, and their +40 goal differential is +18 better than their closest Western Conference competition.

In four games against Vancouver this season, the Avalanche have managed two 2-goal losses, one 2-1 slugfest won by the Canucks’ (then) superior goaltending, and one 4-3 OT loss in BC that garnered the Avs their only point from the season series thus far.

So why will the Avalanche win tonight?

Because they are finally getting healthy with the return of Cody “Highlander” McCleod and one-time leading scorer Chris “Stewie” Stewart.  The loss of Stewart was particularly troubling for an Avalanche offense that still maintained a 3.5 goals per game clip for much of his absence.  With the return of Stewie, Colorado has its game-breaker back – a guy who can beat a defense on his own and forces opposing defenders to play off the attacking point.  Chris is exactly the kind of big, strong skater that can make the Canucks pay for their aggressive play deep into the opponent’s zone.  And McCleod is just a punishing physical presence on the checking line whose intangibles are off the charts.

Most importantly, though, the Avalanche will win because I am going to the game.  They are 2-0 with my muscley hockey butt in the stands, and they will play fast in a crucial divisional contest on four days rest.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 4, Canucks 3

Thursday, January 20^th vs Nashville Predators (7:00 MST)

Nashville is easily the streakiest team in the NHL.  They sit at 5^th in the hyper-competitive West despite two five-game losing streaks and a four-game losing streak.

Depending on how they play at Phoenix on Tuesday night versus the Coyotes, the Predators may roll into Denver having lost 3 of 4 with the sole win a SO victory.  That would bode well for the Avalanche, who jump on slumping squads better than almost any team in hockey.

We will go ahead and assume that, no matter the outcome, Tuesday’s battle between the Preds & ‘Yotes for 4^th in the West will at least leave Nashville wearied heading into Pepsi Center.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 3, Predators 2 (OT)

Saturday, January 22^nd vs Boston Bruins (1:00 MST)

The midway point in Colorado’s 5-game home stand welcomes the Eastern Conference’s second-best team to Denver.  It will be the only game between the Bruins and Avalanche this season, barring an unlikely meeting in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Last year the Avalanche went into Boston and kicked off a thrilling streak of 8 wins in 9 games (7 on the road) with a 4-3 victory.  I was convinced then, as I am now, that the Avalanche match up very well against Bruins netminder Tim “Chunky Love” Thomas.  He sports a rare combination of big goalie with a quick glove, but if Colorado can get him moving (gravitating?) side-to-side then they can pile on the goals.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 4, Bruins 2

**BONUS COVERAGE**

Watch out for them Predators.

No team is more capable of surprising a great hockey club in the playoffs than Nashville, and that makes the season series versus the Preds extra-important.  Home ice advantage might make or break the Predators’ postseason.

Give Nashville a top-four seeding and they could roll to the Conference Finals.  Stick them in the bottom half of the playoff bracket and this crazy engine of speed and power likely runs out of juice on a cold, sad night in Detroit or Vancouver.

With the way the Western Conference is shaking out, a first-round matchup between the Avs & Preds is likely.  Neither is likely to win their division with the Canucks and Red Wings dominating the Northwest and Central respectively.  Colorado and Nashville are the best of the rest in my opinion.  I like them for the 4-5 spots when all is said and done.

The Avalanche are playing their first game of the 2010-2011 Season against the Predators this week.  This late start to the four-game season series means that Colorado can start climbing the playoff ladder at Nashville’s expense now.  Aside from the normal pressures associated with staying in the tight Western playoff hunt, the Avalanche need to worry about beating out a similarly skilled team in the race for home ice.

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A perfect week for the Avalanche (4-0) launched them from 9^th in the Western Conference to 3^rd as the leaders of the Northwest Division.

Colorado’s offense was already rolling along at a league-leading 3.6 goals per game clip.  The return of top goaltender Craig Anderson versus the NY Rangers on Friday sparked a defense that has struggled through injuries to four of its top six defenders.  The Avs blew past New York in that game to the tune of a 5-1 shellacking before edging the Stars in Dallas on Saturday.

Now the Avalanche get Anderson close to 100% in a stretch of games that will determine whether or not Colorado keeps its tenuous hold on the Northwest.  This week is all about division play, and it starts tonight as the Avs travel to Vancouver to take on the 2^nd place Canucks.

Wednesday, November 24^th @ Vancouver Canucks (8:00 MST)

The Avalanche stole a point in their first trip to Vancouver this season, forcing Overtime in a game eventually won by the Canucks.  That was the night almost a month ago that Craig Anderson limped off the ice after hurting his knee in pre-game warm-ups.

This time around Colorado is predominantly healthy and absolutely deadly on offense.  The two teams have been heading in opposite directions of late, with the Avs winning four straight while the ‘Nucks lost their last four.

Expect a no-holds-barred brawl in Vancouver tonight with just two points separating the Canucks from the Avalanche at the top of the Northwest Division.  Bottom line – if Craig Anderson can return quickly to elite form, the Avalanche win.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 4, Canucks 3

Thursday, November 25^th @ Edmonton Oilers (7:00 MST)

After a resurgent season in 2009, the Oilers are back to square one.  They are an NHL-worst -33 in goal differential, allowing an absurd 82 goals in 20 games this season.

For you math wonks, that’s 4.1 goals allowed per game.  Introduce the Avs’ 3.6 goals per game to the equation and what you have is a scorefest mitigated by Colorado’s ability to stop a few transition chances.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 5, Oilers 2

Friday, November 27^th vs Minnesota Wild (7:00 MST)

Playing the Oilers for the first time this season is one thing.  Playing the tough-as-nails Minnesota Wild for the first time this season is something else entirely.

Even if this version of the Wild will never be an elite team in the hyper-competitive West, they could win a division in the East on the strength of their defense alone.  That D-first approach regularly frustrates the Avalanche on offense, and undisciplined defense eventually becomes their undoing.

Now, Joe Sacco has Colorado playing remarkably responsible hockey for a club packed to the gills with young talent.  If the Avs win, it will be thanks to Sacco’s guidance, but the Wild are veteran scrappers and this smells like an upset to me.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 2, Wild 3

**BONUS COVERAGE**

Roughly 20 games into the season the wild, wild western conference  remains predictably tight.  A mere five points separate the #1 Red Wings from the #8 Vancouver Canucks, and if the playoffs started today that would be as fiery a first round matchup between top and bottom as you are ever likely to see.

The West really only has one truly bad team in the Edmonton Oilers, and those Oilers have already beaten the Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks twice this season.  The Calgary Flames have the West’s only other sub-.500 record, and the Flames are still just -2 in goal differential despite going 2-8 following a heart-stomping 6-5 home loss to the Avalanche.

The moral of the story is this:

Every Western Conference team needs to win against the bottom half of the league if they hope to make the playoff field.  The difference in team talent is marginal amongst the top 15 teams in the West, and it will be dedicated team play on both sides of the puck that decides the top eight.  Against the East?  Fuggetaboutit.  The teams that win in the West will do it by dominating their sickly sisters along the right coast.

Where do the Avalanche sit in all of this?

Outside of bad losses to Calgary at home and the Islanders in New York, the Avs are playing up against every opponent.  They compete in almost every game, and are seeing young defenders stepping in to shore up a loose defense.

Colorado has routinely roughed up the weaker Eastern Conference opposition in seasons past, and can challenge the West leaders with a strong five-game East road trip to kick off December.

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Colorado had an outstanding Week Three, scoring 14 goals over three games.  The Avalanche stole a point in an OT loss at Vancouver before blazing through Calgary and dominating Columbus at home.

Unfortunately, goalie Craig Anderson was lost to injury for an undetermined period of time last week.  The injury was sustained during warm-ups in Vancouver, and was the product of a non-contact leg extension.  In his stead Peter Budaj has held up okay, but both goaltenders play behind one of the worst defenses in the league.

Thursday, November 4^th vs Vancouver Canucks (7:00 MST)

The Avalanche were the better team in Vancouver, but could not hammer home the win.  Their outstanding offensive play against a Cup contender in the Canucks has me believing that Colorado can beat any team on any given night.

The Avalanche are rested and they play tough in division contests, so I’ll recycle my prediction from last week’s OT loss.  This time the ‘Lanche get the extra-time goal.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 4, Canucks 3 SO

Saturday, November 6^th vs Dallas Stars (7:00 MST)

The Stars are playing outstanding, attack-oriented hockey right now.  They just thumped the Penguins and will play the Coyotes before coming to Denver on short rest.

Colorado & Dallas are similarly defensively challenged and are starting average goaltenders in front of a porous defensive front.  That sounds like a recipe for another Avalanche barn-burner, and likely a win given the Avs’ ample rest this week.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 6, Stars 4

**BONUS COVERAGE**

Defense, defense, defense.

Surely this is the message head coach Joe Sacco has been hammering home all week.

The Avalanche had a curious 5-day break between home games that started last Saturday, so there will be no excuse for the Colorado D to be anything less than crisp tonight.  Personnel is a part of the issue – the Avalanche have a lot of young defenders – but this offense-or-bust mentality is also a part of the reason the Avs give up so many goals.

Sacco rarely has the luxury of an early lead, so it is difficult to do anything but send his team full-throttle to the net.  Still, a focus on defense must be developed for this team to succeed in a stacked Western Conference.  With Andy out for who-knows-how-long, now is the time to get these young defenders and forwards to buckle down and learn to play responsible team defense at an NHL level.

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**NOTE** Due to insanely high winds knocking out power in West Lakewood, this Week 3 Preview will be written in haste from a remote location deep beneath the earth’s crust.

And now, your hyper-abbreviated Avalanche Week 3 Preview:

It’s de ja vu all over again for the Avalanche who returned from a successful road trip against tought teams for a lackluster homestand against… well, tough teams.  Fact is, though, this is exactly what the Avs did last season; win on the road and give up goals by the boatload at home.

Colorado dropped two points behind Calgary for the NW Division lead after a sorry performance at home versus the same San Jose Sharks that bumped the Avs from last year’s playoffs.  The ‘Lanche went from 4-2 to 4-4 whent they followed the San Jose loss with a 6-4 loss to the very talented LA Kings.

Tuesday, October 26th @ Vancouver Canucks (8:00 MST)

Vancouver has been underwhelming during a 3-3-2 start to the season, but don’t be fooled.  The Canucks are a very talented hockey team, and will give the Avs’ all they can handle.  These teams always come out skating, and the first team to capitalize with a score probably wins.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 4, Canucks 3

More to come tomorrow on the rest of the Avalanche’s Week 3…

Thursday, October 28th @ Calgary Flames (7:30 MST)

After a bad run, the Avalanche dropped down the ranks of what will continue to be a tight NW Division.  At the top of the heap is Calgary, who have enjoyed a soft early season schedule.

Now missing starting goaltender Craig Anderson, the Avalanche will need to put in another gutsy performance just to compete.  The Colorado offense is buzzing, though, and I like the Avs to win with a late scoring flurry.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 4, Flames 3

Saturday, October 30th vs Columbus Blue Jackets (7:00 MST)

The first break in the Avalanche schedule is a home contest against the Blue Jackets.  Unfortunately, this is still not much of a break.  Columbus sits at the bottom of the Central Division despite a 5-3 record, and they worked the Avs last season.

This looks a lot like another home letdown game for the Avalanche, and unless Peter Budaj and the Colorado defense finally put up a wall it will be.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 2, Blue Jackets 4

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The Vancouver Canucks matched the Colorado Avalanche goal-for-goal through three periods of hockey Tuesday night.  But it was the Avalanche fighting for their playoff lives, and Colorado brought the fight to the Canucks’ doorstep early and often.

The Avalanche scored first on an unassisted Darcy Tucker tally through Robert Luongo’s legs just over 6 minutes into the opening salvo.  It was only Tucker’s 9^th goal on the season, but it couldn’t have come at more critical time.  With Peter Mueller downed by a dirty Rob Blake hit two nights ago, the Avalanche were undermanned offensively going into this crucial final 4 games of the season.

Daniel Sedin tied it and TJ Galiardi put the Avs back up by a goal in the same minute late in the 1^st Period.

At the end of one, Colorado managed a 1-goal lead in hostile territory.

Neither team could establish a clear advantage coming out of the break, but the 2^nd Period served to catch the Canucks up to the Avalanche in shots on goal.  Mason Raymond was able to bring the score back to even at 7 minutes.  Vancouver was playing determined hockey, matching Colorado stride-for-stride in their push toward the playoffs.

Future Captain Paul Stastny put the Avalanche right back ahead 7 minutes later off a flawless cross-ice feed from Chris Stewart.  These two are the heart and soul of this Avalanche offense going forward, and it’s an indescribable pleasure to watch them execute in the pinch.

Somewhere around the middle of the 3^rd Period, Calgary lost at home to San Jose.

An Avalanche win would lock up the 8^th seed for a 12^th trip to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Avalanche played some premature defensive hockey, sitting back in their zone for much of the 3^rd Period.  A one-goal lead in a tight divisional road game is as unsafe as they come, and Daniel Sedin got his second score to match Colorado’s 3 on the night.

It seemed like the Avalanche were waiting for that goal, and immediately went from resting on their laurels to pushing the action deep into the Vancouver Zone.  But the even score held through regulation, and Sedin’s goal score pushed the action to Overtime.

In OT, Daniel Sedin got a clean break in 4 on 4 play coming out of the Vancouver end.

Sedin had already put two shots past Craig Anderson on the evening.  Terror time for the Avalanche.

Daniel slowed his momentum to make a play on Craig 1 on 1, but John Michael Liles, chasing the play hard from the breakout pass, dove and got a clean stick on the puck just as Daniel cocked to shoot.  This is the same J-M Liles who was benched repeatedly this year for his lack of defensive fortitude.  The same J-M Liles who scored the game-winning goal a game ago versus San Jose.

A healthy scratch mid-season, Liles was trusted to be on the ice in crucial situations throughout this game, and that trust paid off in a big way for coach Joe Sacco and the Avalanche Tuesday night.

The Canucks pressed the Avalanche Zone for the rest of the extra period, but Anderson made a series of great stops to maintain the tie.

With 0:10 left in OT, the Avalanche made a couple of nice passes to break the Vancouver pressure and dash through neutral ice.  With less than a second left, Matt Duchene controlled the puck to the net, but couldn’t manage a shot as the Vancouver defense caught up and disrupted the threat.  Matty looked devastated that he couldn’t at least level a shot at Luongo… keep that disappointment in mind.

The Shootout was a goalie dual to the end.

Through two shooters, Craig Anderson & Robert Luongo were playing their opponents flawlessly.  Anderson was making the high, glove-side saves that have eluded him for a solid month, and Luongo was using his big body to start high in his crease and eliminate shots in stages.

In fact, Luongo played Matt Duchene perfectly on the Avalanche’s 3^rd shot.  Anderson had stonewalled three Cancucks, and it looked like this one would go to extra shooters.  Then Duchene showed the goal-scoring flare that has eluded him through an untimely dry spell.

Moving right to left, Duchene lifted an unstoppable shot past Luongo’s glove.  As puck met net, the Colorado bench erupted onto the ice to chase down rookie hero Matty D.

Avalanche clinch a playoff birth with three to play.

For all the trials, injuries and setbacks that have marred this surprisingly successful Avalanche season, Colorado is a Stanley Cup contender at last.

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Game Preview

Though the game tonight is a big NW showdown for first place, do not be deceived; first place in the Northwest will be decided by the Pacific division.

After today, the Avalanche will have 4 more division games while the Canucks will have 5 more division games out of the 16 games each team has remaining.  The Avs will also play one more game against the East. (Home game against Florida.  They must get 2 points.  No excuses.) Then two more against the Central.  The Canucks conversely have two more games against Eastern Conference teams, and one more Central game (against Detroit, a win-win game!)

That leaves 8 and 9 games remaining against Pacific teams for the Canucks and Avalanche, respectively.

This is a schedule that vastly favors Vancouver. Vancouver is physical hockey club, probably the most physical club in the league.  The Avs can bang with almost team, but they are built for a mix of speed and physicality.  The Pacific division is full of big teams (Dallas excluded) that like to beat you up and then win a close won.  Vancouver simply has a better roster to deal with this.

This is why this game is so important.  Any two points the Avs can get and restrict from Vancouver are essential to taking the Division considering the upcoming schedule.

There is some reason to hope, though.  Versus the Pacific Division’s 3 trap teams (Phoenix, LA, Anaheim), the Avs are a thankful 4-4-0 against this year.   Vancouver is 3-3-1 against the same three.  I would expect the Avs to be trailing in this category.  Perhaps a good sign for the stretch run.

1^st Period

The Avalanche start out the game with a couple of dump and chase attempts that went nowhere and a long pass to Peter Mueller down the left side that he couldn’t handle.   Defensively they are doing a good job of keeping the puck out of the middle, but Vancouver is spending more time in the Avs’ zone than vice versa.

Colorado has moved to working the puck over the blue line on the rush and earned a trio of long shots on the rush.  They  can’t keep the puck in the zone however.

First Five Minutes are about even, but I’m gonna give it Vancouver for more time spent in the Colorado zone.

2^nd line on the ice for the Avs sees a very uncharacteristic defensive breakdown by Vancouver.   After a board battle which pops out to Matt Hendricks at the point, Hendricks skates into the slot to draw the defense and passes to Mueller left side by the net.  Mueller fakes a quick shot to get Roberto Luongo down and then breaks around the back of the net.

Three, count ‘em, three Canucks chase Mueller, no one goes to the far side, pass to Matt Duchene, easy one-timer, GOAL.  Avs 1-0 You won’t get many easy ones like that against Vancouver.

T. J.  Galiardi picked a pass off in the Neutral Zone and dumped in right side near the boards.   Chris Stewart simply outskates Aaron Rome for the puck and sends it to the net.  GOAL.  Avs 2-0 Absolutely something Luongo should stop.

Rick Rypien picks a fight with Chris Durno right out of the faceoff after the second goal.  Durno shouldn’t be fighting after breaking his hand.  Like he’s reading my thoughts, Chris tackles Rypien two punches in.

Vancouver looks rattled after the quick two goals.  They’re making some foolish passes and are pressing the issue in the Neutral Zone in situations they don’t have too.  The Avs on the other hand are playing some good possession hockey and generating some good chances.

Luongo looks focused all of a sudden.

2^nd Five Minutes are dominated by the Avs.  2 gimme goals, sure, but after that they controlled the tempo entirely.  Vancouver is lost in fog and are getting reckless and desperate waaaaaay too early.

Alexander Edler trying to clear the puck during an Avalanche rush puts it over the glass.  Penalty: Delay of Game. Careless.

The Avs looked pretty useless on the PP with 3 quick Vancouver clears, until Paul Stastny worked it in left side and then drop-passed to Duchene on a give-and-go.

Duchene passed up to Stastny down low and it deflected off a Canuck defender and slid past Luongo far side.  GOAL.  Avs 3-0. There couldn’t have been more than 4 inches of open space on Luongo’s left.   It might just be the Avs night.  (Note: Kyle Cuminski credited with the 2^nd assist)

3^rd Five Minutes saw the Avs get a Power Play, and a Power Play goal, and really dictate the even-strength game.    Vancouver looked to be putting back together on the penalty kill and then…. the unlucky deflection.

Vancouver puts together a very nice little 45 second pressure with good keep-in and a decent shot halfway through, but the Avs are clogging the middle.  Colorado seems content to let this lead hit the room.  I can’t blame them.

Final Five Minutes saw some fiery play from Vancouver’s top line, but once again the Avalanche are playing trap and aren’t giving up any space to reenter the game.

End Period.

The Avs got lucky, and then got lucky, and then they controlled every aspect of the game for 12 minutes, and then they got lucky.   That’s the majority of the story so far.   The major beneficiary of the good fortune is Duchene with an easy one timer and a defensive deflection.

Credit to the Colorado defense; only 7 shots allowed in the period against a higher shooting team, and one really had a chance. (Board battle, came out to the point, shot through traffic made it Craig Anderson. I didn’t see who shot it as I’m writing from the bar and they went to commercial too quickly.)

Neutral Zone play has been the best part of the Colorado gameplan.  Two goal generated off the rush speaks for itself, but additionally they have been stifling and had a good mix of work ins, rushes, and dumps and chases (Note to Editor: Is the plural of dump and chase dumps and chases?).

2^nd Period

The period opens the way you would expect with the Canucks trying to outskate and outwork Colorado and the Avs playing cautious and close to the vest.   A little early for the prevent defense in my opinion.

About 4 minutes in you could see the Avs realize they wouldn’t just skate on to victory with the good 1^st period. They wake up a bit from the Intermission.  Now they’re meeting Vancouver’s aggressiveness.

1^st Five Minutes had Vancouver playing much better for the first four.  But the Avs are showing some energy now.

Avs give up a rush to the top line of Vancouver.  Sedin to Sedin (I’m not even going to try and tell them apart) at the blue line on the right side rush.  Shot, Save, Rebound by Mikael Samuelson. GOAL. Avs 3-1. They are a dangerous line.

In a play that happens 20 times a game and nothing bad ever happens, disaster strikes Vancouver on a cross ice pass in the defensive zone.  Edler cross ice to Pavol Demitra pick off by Mueller, breakaway.  Nice move in the slot from right left, wrist shot stick side.  Goal Avs 4-1. Edler carelessness with the puck gave the Avs a PP goal earlier in the game too.

2^nd Five Minutes Vancouver looked like the better team, but the margin stays the same on a very aggressive play by the newest Av.

Vancouver is showing their frustration now.  Pushing and shouting.

During a decent pressure by Vancouver, Avs fail to clear or H. Sedin steals the puck (take your pick it was about 50-50).  Pass to Christian Ehrhoff at the point, pass back down the slot to Samuelson, and Cumiskey is out of position.  Samuelson skates from left to right easy backhand.  GOAL Avs 4-2. Cumiskey was seduced across the crease by the absence of play and it cost the Avalanche.

Cumiskey almost makes up for it at the other end with a late-man try on the rush but can’t lift the puck.  The Avs keep it in but Durno handcuffs Ryan Johnson in the slot on the next shot.  Penalty: Interference.

3^rd Five Minutes has a Canuck Goal and PP and all-around good play from Vancouver. The Avalanche are reeling a little bit.

Great penalty Kill by the Avs.  Zero shots allowed.  While the Canucks could keep the puck in all they wanted on the sides, whenever they would try to work the puck to the middle the Avs would intercept and clear.  Great positional defense.

Right after Andy makes what might have been the save of the game, the top line of Vancouver does it again.   Sedin tracks down the puck in the right corner, crosses behind the net to the other Sedin, who passes back across in front of the net to Samuelson to complete his hat trick. GOAL 4-3. Andy got a piece of it but it was just high enough to get over his pad.

Final Five Minutes of the period all came down to one good 30-second pressure that cut the deficit to one goal.

End Period.

The Period was slightly in favor of the Canuck in terms of overall play, but with those narrow margins by which they played better they got 3 goals.  The Avs were a bit too passive for much of the period, and as a consequence have to defend just a one goal lead.

The Avs aren’t playing that bad in any of the three phases of the game, they’re just getting beat… and maybe outworked.   I think a little bit of energy is the answer.

3^rd Period

Both team come out of the room skating hard (about time Avalanche).  Both teams are also playing their secondary players off the puck by an extra 5-7 feet.  Looks like everybody wants open ice.

The Avs have managed two good chances in the period in the first 4 minutes but Luongo isn’t the premiere Canadian goaltender for no reason (though he did let in one soft goal today).  Both times the Avs could have beaten him moving from side to side.

1^st Five Minutes Colorado looked like the team  that wanted to win the game.   They’re the ones pressing the issue and Vancouver, after two period of skating very well, looks like they can’t quite find their legs.

Accidental trip by Galiardi on Ryan Kesler moving into the Offensive zone, but still give Vancouver a chance to tie.  Penalty. Tripping.

Avs had put together a decent penalty kill and towards the end of the PP Kelser sets of Ehrhoff in the right circle with Alexandre Burrows screening Andy.  Wrist shot, deflection, GOAL. Tied 4-4. I suppose the game has been so evenly matched both teams would turn out to have same lucky scores.

2^nd Five Minutes are Vancouver’s with the PP and the PP Goal.  10 minutes to go, both teams skating hard, and the next score probably wins.

Vancouver has decided to make it physical, but they do so at the wrong time.  Samuelson fighting Galiardi on a Vancouver rush loses the puck on a very physical work-in and hooks Galiardi in the aftermath.  Penalty: Hooking.

An identical play on the other end of the ice by Duchene on Edler.  Penalty: Hooking. Both teams wanted open ice so they get it.  Four-on-Four for 1:45.

Avs Kill a 15 second PP with one clear.

3^rd Five Minutes featured a penalty by each team and a kill by each team.  One good scoring chance by each team.  Both clubs have opened the ice all the way, as though to say, “We have the better offense, and even if we don’t, we have the better goalie.”  Next one to score almost certainly wins.

The open ice is not helping anyone early, just some dumps and line changes.

On a night when the Avs get a load of lucky bounces the Canucks get the luckiest one of all…

Rome launches from the left side point, Anderson makes a pad save.  The rebound bounces up into Jannick Hansen’s jersey who skates through the crease behind Anderson.  The puck falls out of Hansen’s jersey hits Anderson on the shoulder and deflects into the goal.  GOAL. Canucks 5-4. Vancouver just hung around too long.

Throw-away empty net by D. Sedin.  GOAL. Canucks 6-4.

End Game.

That Colorado choke virtually gives the Canucks the tiebreaker.

They now have the Head-to-Head and they sit 4 wins ahead, which means it’s a five point deficit not a four point deficit.  The Avs have one shot to win the division: rattle off no less than 24 point in 16 games. (I suppose the Canucks could stumble down the stretch, but they don’t have that type of team personality. I’m gonna say it won’t happen).

The turning point was the second Vancouver Goal, and I’m saying that because it was the first of 4 straight goals.  Up to that point the Avs were playing great defense.  But after they caught Cumiskey out of position, they began passing back to the point on every second or third pressure.   Firing from the point scored two more goals, one on a deflection and one on a rebound deflection.

I would be remiss if I didn’t comment on the Avs’ failure to keep the pressure on early in the second period.  Vancouver gave the Avalanche every opportunity to put the game away and the Avs, rather than failing to capitalize, passed on more than one chance to rush Luongo and put the Canucks in a deeper hole.

Lastly, Andy didn’t have the best game.  He was really only tested 3-4 times and let in 2-3 goals (the screen deflection being a debatable “should have stopped it” goal as he did take good position but he could have taken better considering the tough angle).   I don’t know if he saw the puck well tonight but I didn’t see a lot a of screens or confusing attacks by Vancouver.

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The Vancouver Canucks started the season as cold as a Northern Saskatchewanian ice floe.

Colorado took off out of the gates… well… like an Avalanche down a Rocky Mountain Valley.

Then the ‘Nucks got red hot and the Avs cooled to a respectable simmer.  Now, with 17 games left in the regular season and the two clubs separated by 2 points, Vancouver will visit Pepsi Center determined to lock up the season series and stretch their division lead.  This game will go a long way towards determining whether or not the young Avalanche are playoff-ready.

The Canucks are near the end of a remarkable (and remarkably successful) 14-game road swing that spanned the Vancouver Olympics.  Vancouver has managed to squeeze every drop out of their team through this trip, and I think they may finally crash tomorrow at Phoenix.

But despite the long road the Canucks have travelled to get here, Vancouver is still going to put up a helluva fight versus Colorado.  These two teams rolled over Calgary to make the Northwest Division a two-horse race, and this game will be played in a vacuum as a result.  The Avalanche trounced Vancouver in the second game of the season 3-0 before getting embarrassed with 0-3, 2-8 & 2-5 losses to the Canucks over three short weeks.

The Canucks will score, as they have quietly moved into a tie for 4^th highest goal total in the NHL.  Colorado has the speed and skill to skate with Vancouver any day, but will need to be efficient with their scoring chances to stay ahead.  My gut tells me that Milan Hejduk will need to generate some offense early to get his young team believing hard in the win.

The Canucks game is the first in a week of marquee matchups for the Avalanche.

Tuesday’s game versus Vancouver is followed by the Florida Panthers’ first visit to Craig Anderson’s new digs since they let him dip to Colorado in the offseason.

Then on Sunday the Avalanche will trek to Dallas for a pitched battle with a desperate Stars squad eager to break into the playoff field.  (They’re currently 4 points out.)  Colorado typically plays extremely well against Dallas, but did lose 2-3 on their last trip to Texas.  This is a nationally televised Sunday afternoon game, and the Marc Crawford-coached Stars will definitely be playing up to the big audience & high stakes.

Tue, Mar 9^th vs Vancouver Canucks (7:00 MST)

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 4, Canucks 3 (SO)

Thu, Mar 11^th vs Florida Panthers (7:00 MST)

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, Panthers 2

Sun, Mar 14^th @ Dallas Stars (1:00 MST)

PREDICTION:  Avalanche 2, STARS 3

WEEK 19 PREDICTION:  2-1

**Bonus Coverage**

Stewart’s Star shines brightly in first full season

Avalanche right wing Chris Stewart was named the NHL’s First Star for his stellar performance over four games last week.  Stewie bagged four assists and five goals, three of which came in his first career hat trick Saturday against the Blues.  Stewart is technically a sophmore, but only played a handful of games last season.

Chris is quickly becoming a fan favorite in Colorado, and his balanced combination of quickness and raw power has made him the Avs’ leading goal scorer on the season.  Stewart has 51 points in 60 games this year, and is emblematic of Colorado’s tough, aggressive approach on both sides of the puck.

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St Louis Blues goaltender Chris Mason had been unbeatable over his last five games, all wins.  That streak included shoot-out victories against the rising Red Wings and league-best Capitals.

Mason didn’t make it past the second minute of the second period in this game, as the Avalanche began to score their goals in bunches.

After St Louis took an early 1-0 lead on a redirection goal, the Avalanche needed only 0:11 seconds to tie.  Just over a minute later Colorado took the lead on the first of Chris Stewart’s three goals.  Stewart and the Avalanche never looked back, stretching their lead to 5-1 before the Blues could re-compose themselves.

Chris Stewart recorded his first career hat trick in what has been an absolutely shockingly good season for the strong, quick forward.  Stewart has 44 points in 48 games since scoring his first NHL goal against Detroit on October 24^th, 2009.  Chris also has seven goals in his last eight games.

More amazing than his eye-popping statistics was the way that Chris logged his first career hat trick.

After scoring on a wrister in the first period and a slapshot in the first minute of the second period, Stewart was tripped down on a breakaway in the final minute of the second.  Chris was awarded a Penalty Shot on the play, and he made it a no-doubt wrister over the glove of Blues backup Ty Conklin.  The Colorado crowd flooded the ice with hats in honor of Stewart’s big game.

The Blues didn’t back off, though, recording the first goal of the third period to make it a 3-6 disadvantage.  The Avalanche buckled down on defense, and added an empty netter with just over a minute left to seal the blowout win.

Interestingly, the Denver University Pioneers played their final regular season game at the same time in the same state.  For a while, both the Pioneers and Avalanche were enjoying 6-3 leads, and each game ended with 7-3 wins.  DU will go into the WCHA tournament as the #1 seed after knocking off the Colorado College Tigers a night after losing 1-2 to their front-range rivals.

Meanwhile the Avalanche will get ready to take on their own rivals, the Northwest leading Vancouver Canucks, in Colorado on Tuesday night.  The Avs and ‘Nucks have 80 points each at the moment, making Tuesday’s contest the biggest game of the season for both teams.

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In a game that pitted two NHL All-Star Teams against each other, nothing less than North American bragging rights was on the line.  Matching up on NHL-sized ice for the first time in Olympic Hockey history, Canada & the US fought a frenzied battle for the Group A title.

The Detroit Red Wings’ Brian Rafalski scored 0:41 seconds into the 1^st Period on a slap-shot from the point that redirected off the stick of Canadian Forward Sydney Crosby… and the upset was on.  Team Canada never led in a game that they dominated everywhere except the scoreboard.  The final 5-3 tally does not tell the story of how close this game was right up to the closing minutes of the 3^rd Period.

Now the US Men will exit the Group Round with the #1 seed and a Bye to the Quarterfinals Round.  They will play the winner of the Switzerland (#8) vs Belarus (#9) Qualification Round play-in game.  The Canadian loss designates them to the 6^th seed and a Qualifying Game versus the 11^th-seeded German Team for the honor of playing 3^rd-seeded Russia.  (For more info on tournament seeding go here.)

Canada’s Eric Staal (Carolina Hurricanes) put one past US Goalie Ryan Miller (Buffalo Sabres) 8:53 into the opening period to tie it at 1 apiece, but the Americans answered 0:22 later with another Goal by Brian Rafalski.  This time Rafalski only got a half-shot on net, but it slid through a screened slot and under the outstretched left leg of Canadian net-minder Martin Brodeur (New Jersey Devils).

The two teams traded scoring chances through the remainder of the 1^st Period and the first three & a half minutes of the 2^nd before Canada’s Dany Heatley (San Jose Sharks) netted another tying Goal.  Unfortunately for Team Canada and their rabid fans nationwide, that would be the last time the two teams were even.

With less than four minutes left in the 2^nd, the New York Rangers’ Chris Drury (formerly of Colorado Avalanche fame) scored the 3^rd Goal for the Americans on a scrum in front of the Canadian net.  With Canadian defenders collapsing into their own crease and Brodeur out of position, Drury wristed a rebound through a sea of bodies for the score and a 3-2 lead.

The back-and-forth contest tested the defensive resolve of a US Team trying to duplicate the success of the 1960 & 1980 US Gold Medal winners.  On the 50^th & 30^th Anniversaries of those Cinderella Americans, the United States is the #1 seed after the Group Round of the tournament.

Ever since the Groups were set, the world has been waiting for this matchup: USA vs Canada Olympic Teams on NHL-sized ice for the first time in history.  With the Olympics in Vancouver and the Canadians on a strapped budget (and also hoping for a competitive advantage versus European Teams), the decision was made to allow these hockey games to be played on the smaller NHL ice instead of modifying the rinks to the larger International specifications.

Now the Canadians may be regretting that decision.  The US Men played tight, defensive hockey on the smaller sheet, and used their superior passing ability to stretch the ice through the Neutral Zone.  It was that impressive display of puck movement that prevented the Canadian Team from getting too comfortable, even though they were on the attack for the majority of the game.  Ryan Miller (42 saves) had an outstanding game in net, and it was his play in the closing minutes of each period that held off an offensively superior Canadian Team.

Rafalski was the real game-changer, though, scoring the United States’ first two goals.  He might as well have logged a hat trick.  The game-winning 4^th Goal came on a Rafalski slap-shot from the point that redirected off Jamie Langenbrunner’s skate just outside of the crease, then banked off Canadian Goalie Martin Brodeur’s stick and through his legs.  That Power Play Goal put the US up 4-2 with less than 13 minutes left in the contest.  Langenbrunner is also a New Jersey Devil, and I get the feeling that it may be a while before he and Brodeur feel the typical teammate love again.l

Canada’s Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins) redirected a Power Play Goal past Miler with just over three minutes to play to make it a one-goal game.  That set up a frantic finish.  Canada pulled Goalie Martin Brodeur for an extra skater twice, buzzing around the US zone and creating a number of scoring chances.  Miller and the US defenders held up to the barrage long enough for Forward Ryan Kesler to chase down a cleared puck in the Canadian end.  Ryan dove around a Canadian defender whose body was protecting the moving puck and slapped it into the open net for the game-sealing Goal.

Kesler plays NHL hockey for the home-town Vancouver Canucks, and that had to make his heroic diving goal with 0:45 left even harder to watch for the partisan Vancouver crowd.

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Colorado Avalanche vs Los Angeles Kings

A big win Friday night over the streaking Phoenix Coyotes kept the Avalanche on-pace with the Vancouver Canucks atop the Northwest Division.

Now Colorado will try to stretch their league-best win streak to five games against the Kings in Los Angeles.  Both teams sit at 76 points on 60 games & 5^th/6^th in the Western Conference.  The Avalanche & Kings have not yet met this year, so the winner will assume control of the four-game season series.  Games 1 & 2 are in Los Angeles five weeks apart, Game 3 comes to Denver two days later, and the teams will reunite at Pepsi Center on April 11^th for Game 4 on the last day of the regular season.

Adding to the plot line is an offseason trade between the two clubs.  Denver sent the underproductive Ryan Smyth to Los Angeles in favor of the Kings’ Kyle Quincey.  Smyth has been productive for the Kings, and Quincey has been part of a defensive Renaissance in Colorado.  The two will surely meet more than once on the ice at Staples Center this evening.

The Kings have lost two games in a row for the first time since early January.  They racked up 37 & 43 shots while only scoring two goals each in losses to the Ducks & Oilers respectively.  Los Angeles is too good on offense to keep down for long.  Unless Craig Anderson stands on his head tonight, the Avalanche will likely bow to the Kings’ home ice advantage in the opening volley of this compact season series.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 3, KINGS 4

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