The Denver Nuggets have had no choice but to wallow in the unhappy ending to their 2009-20010 season over the last two months.  Will they be able to right the ship by cashing in on the richest free agent market in NBA history?

With a suddenly glaring weakness at power forward, the Denver Nuggets need to make a move to compete in the loaded Western Conference next season.

Denver is in a heck of a bind after their playoff flop versus Utah.

An unfortunate combination of injuries, circumstance, and poor decision-making by the Nuggets’ front office have Denver on the edge of irrelevance as the rest of the West grows inexorably bigger and stronger across the board.

Kenyon Martin & Chris Andersen both had offseason knee surgeries, with K-Mart likely to miss training and preseason work with the team.  The Nuggets’ formerly formidable power forward corps look suddenly paper thin.

Carmelo Anthony is unwilling to sign a contract extension without guaranteed help from free agency that may never come.  Melo’s current deal is up in 2011, and the Nuggets have expressed a willingness to trade him instead of losing him to free agency next year.

It is most likely, however, that Denver and Carmelo will find a way to work out a deal for an extension under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement that will pay Anthony much more over the next four or five years than he could make here or anywhere else after the current CBA expires at the end of next season.

George Karl’s coaching future is still up in the air despite assertions from his family that his road to recovery is firmly on track.  Without Karl’s practiced hand steadying these Nuggets, they are simply not a reasonable contender for the Conference Finals or better.

And the Nuggets gained nothing from a loaded 2010 NBA Draft class that featured a cadre of qualified big men.  Even a lesser pick from the 2^nd Round could have helped to shoulder the crushing low post burden.  Kenyon has been unable to play a full season since coming to Denver, and there is little chance that next season will be any different.

The good news is yet to come. (It has to.)

Word is that Denver did fish for a trade partner to bust into last week’s draft, but nothing materialized that was worth the asking price.  (Denver’s unfortunate recent draft history left them without a 2010 pick.)

That leaves the Nuggets’ front office with continued draft-related failure since nabbing Nene and Carmelo Anthony in consecutive drafts from 2002-2003.  (The book is still out on Ty Lawson.)  Denver has instead opted to do its fishing in the free agent pool, and this season the big fish are biting.

While the Nuggets have not been mentioned by rumor mills like ESPN as suitors for any of the big names in the 2010 Free Agent Class, Stan Kroenke & Co. have been notorious for playing their cards close to the vest.

Do not be surprised to see one of the available power forwards come to Denver, paired with the exit of Kenyon Martin’s expiring contract.

The Big Bosh surprise?

The plum of this free agent class is obviously Lebron, but James and Melo have always been a better foil as opponents than teammates.  Lebron is certainly not willing to shift to power forward to accommodate Melo, or vice versa.

The slightly more likely solution would be a sign & trade with Toronto for Chris Bosh.

Although Denver is not on the Chris Bosh Wishlist, the Raptors’ ability to give Bosh a max deal and get an expiring contract in return makes the Nuggets an ideal trade partner.  Toronto would end up with Kenyon Martin drawing fans to their seats for a year, and the Nuggets would get the youthful big man that they need to partner with Nene in the paint.

As much as Chris may want to end up in the bright lights of New York, Chicago or Miami, he may be more motivated by the riches afforded a sign & trade through his current team.  Bosh would be a great fit in the Nuggets’ speed & isolation oriented offense, and his shot-blocking ability would partially make up for the loss of K-Mart’s unmatched post defense.

Then again, if Bosh and Lebron can find a way to fit into the budget together at Chicago, this all becomes a moot point and another Bulls Dynasty is born.

Amare For the Win

Amare Stoudemire is a long-shot to come to Denver because the Nuggets would have to unload K-Mart by other means in order to afford him.  The Suns will certainly not be interested in a bulky, defense-oriented, injury-prone power forward to replace the explosive Stoudemire.

That means the Nuggets would have to dump Kenyon on another team in exchange for a less expensive talent, then woo Stoudemire to Denver with promises of speedy transition play and a shooting forward (Melo) that can mirror his powerful interior skills out on the perimeter.  This is an unlikely solution and, as with any other potential deal this July, Amare’s path depends on where other power forwards end up around the league.

If Amare wants to win, he will not waste the next few years of his basketball life losing in Madison Square Garden or the NBA Purgatory known as Clipperland.  Better options for such a great offensive talent to win now and in the future lie in Phoenix or Denver.

The Most Unlikely Signing That Ever Was

We’ve gone from sort of likely to outright unlikely, and now we go to the Twilight Zone for the deal that would be fantastic for the Nuggets but would never, ever, not in a million years happen.

Carlos Boozer is an underestimated power forward talent in this free agent class.  He is a force comparable to Kenyon on defense, and his ability to rebound on the offensive glass extends possessions and wears down opponents.

Boozer is the workhorse that Denver needs to anchor its starting five… the anchor that Kenyon has been when healthy.  His skill set is so similar to K-Mart’s that you would hardly notice a difference, except that Carlos would be a force in the late season and playoffs where Kenyon becomes less effective and misses time as the year wears on.

The only problem is that Boozer has spent six dedicated seasons in Utah.  He could have left the Jazz for greener pastures in the past and hasn’t.  The very idea that he would betray the Utah faithful by coming to Denver must be highly offensive to Jazz fans.

However, the Jazz are never going to break through the laundry list of talented teams in the Western Conference to reach the NBA Finals under Jerry “Dinosaur” Sloan.

Make no mistake, Sloan runs a tight ship and puts together tough, competitive teams each season.  But Utah is merely a weigh station; a worthy obstacle to be overcome in the playoffs.  Their back-to-back playoff exits at the hands of the Lakers have shown how woefully untalented this team is on the offensive side of the court.

Carlos would be better off in powder blue.

Mr. Boozer could do great things in Denver, most importantly bringing in the kind of toughness and tenacity that the Nuggets have been missing without a 100% Kenyon over the last six years.

Don’t waste your breath, Dirk’s goin’ nowhere.

The last power forward on the Big List (see below) is Dirk Nowitzki.  The big German sensation could make the Nuggets a Title Contender immediately with his rare combination of strength, speed, rebounding ability and shooting touch.

However, despite Dirk’s announcement yesterday that he would opt out of the final year of his current contract, Nowitzki is staying in Dallas.  Doubtless, Dirk decided to opt out that he might garner a more favorable contract under the current CBA than if he had waited until next season.  Like Carmelo, Nowitzki wants to stay where he is… he just wants to be rewarded handsomely for his loyalty.

Best Wishes to Melo & Lala

Carmelo Anthony and longtime girlfriend Lala Vazquez will finally tie the knot next Saturday, July 10^th.

While the rest of the NBA world goes gaga over the big free agent frenzy, Melo & Lala will be saying their vows in New York City.  The wedding is accompanied by a VH1 Reality TV Show that premieres in September and focuses on the months leading up to the wedding.  The finale will be a 90-minute detail of the wedding itself.

So congrats to Melo & Lala.  May their marriage and Carmelo’s career in Denver both last well into a bright ‘n shiny future.

The Big List: Top Ten 2010 NBA Free Agents

Lebron James (SF)

Dwyane Wade (SG)

Chris Bosh (PF)

Joe Johnson (SG)

Dirk Nowitzki (PF)

Paul Pierce (SF)

Amare Stoudemire (PF)

Carlos Boozer (PF)

David Lee (C)

Rudy Gay (SF)

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The 2010 Draft was loaded with talent, but the Nuggets got no help for their aging and ineffective front line.  Denver had no draft picks to play with… again.

Meanwhile, the rest of the West’s contenders got bigger to match up against the length of the NBA Champion LA Lakers.

The Rest of the West gets better…

Oklahoma City, after being knocked out of the 2010 Playoffs by the Lakers, picked up the 6’-11” Cole Aldrich (Kansas) from New Orleans and the 7’-1” Tibor Pleiss (Germany) to improve their chances against LA.

San Antonio, whose lineup is ancient by comparison to the young Thunder, grabbed the 6’-11” Ryan Richards (England).  Dallas improved its height via trade last season, picking up the 7’ tall Brendan Haywood before falling to the cagy Spurs in the playoffs.

The Lakers’ Pacific Division punching bags, Sacramento & Golden State, used their high 1^st Round Picks in the 2010 Draft to grab big, mean shot-blockers to contend with LA’s enormous frontcourt of Odom, Gasol & Bynum.  Sacramento netted DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky), the most coveted big in this year’s draft at 6’-11” and an imposing 270 pounds.  Golden State picked up the 6’-9” Ekpe Udoh (Baylor) to shore up their shoddy defense, that they might finally win a few of their regular season scoring sprints versus the Lakers.

Even the Lakers’ 2009 Finals opponent, the Orlando Magic, used its sole 1^st Round Pick on 6’-10” Power Forward Daniel Orton.  The Magic do not lack for height with Dwight Howard roaming the paint, but understand that to summit the NBA mountain is to outreach the Lakers at any cost.

Oh, and how about those NBA Champion Lakers?  They improved their own stable of big men by drafting two 6’-9” forwards.  LA added Devin Ebanks (West Virginia) and Derrick Caracter (UTEP) via two 2^nd Round Picks.  With their biggest question marks at guard and small forward, the Lakers continue to draft size first.

Where does that leave the Nuggets?

Each of the Denver bigs are a potential liability at this point in their careers.

Chris “Birdman” Andersen is a crowd favorite and an imposing presence when healthy.  But each season The Bird fades as spring approaches, and Chris was a non-factor late in the year.  Even coming off the bench both Andersen’s age (31) and the hard-charging, high-energy style with which he plays are catching up with him.

It certainly didn’t help that Andersen spent the latter half of the regular season trying to fill the very large shoes of Kenyon Martin.  K-Mart is the defensive heart of this Denver team, and his history of knee injuries looms large on the Nuggets’ future.

Kenyon’s early-season form saw a player capable of dominating games from the paint and helping to stretch opposing defenses with a reliable shot from the top of the key.  But when Martin returned from expedited injury recovery in time for the 2010 Playoffs he looked tentative, not tenacious.  That reliable shot Kenyon spent the offseason working on was too strong, forced even, and the Nuggets had to watch Carlos Boozer knock down the very same troublesome jumper for Utah as the Jazz trounced Denver for a playoff series win.

Meanwhile Nene, who has always struggled with issues of toughness in the rough ‘n tumble paints of the NBA, could not hold the center of the Nuggets’ defense without Kenyon & Birdman at 100%.  When Denver’s offense is humming, Nene can use his superior speed and quickness to take advantage of slower centers.  However, he has never been one to force the issue on his own offensively or bear the brunt of an opposing attack on defense.  Without big help on either end of the court, Nene’s numbers deflated precipitously through the end of the 2010 season.

In that dismal playoff series versus Utah, the Nuggets were outworked and outschemed as a result of their less effective paint personnel, in addition to being thoroughly outcoached in the absence of head coach George Karl.

Where does Denver go from here?

The unfortunately likely answer is down…

Down in size as Birdman and K-Mart become less effective.  Down the standings as other Western Conference powers improve.  And down the draft chart into the teen neighborhood of picks as a result.

Unless the Nuggets’ front office can wheel and deal for the likes of Chris Bosh (Denver was not on his list of preferred cities to play in), then we will have to hope that Kenyon’s knees hold, that Birdman can be energy off the bench instead of a late season burnout, and that Denver never, ever has to rely on Johan Petro to start a game ever again.

Help is certainly not coming in the form of up-and-coming big men, as Denver has failed to take on a power forward or center through the draft since Nene in 2002.

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The Denver Nuggets dropped a crucial Game 4 in Utah on Sunday night, but it was the way they lost that has this former contender looking dead in the water.

Denver’s bigs couldn’t make layups, their bench had no spark, and their defense made lazy rotations versus the Jazz for the third straight game.  Not coincidentally, after going up 1-0 to start this opening round playoff series, the Nuggets have lost the last 3 games.

Worse, there is no bright horizon in site for Denver, as the heart of their precipitous decline from contender to first-round flop is a near complete lack of leadership.

George Karl spent the last month of the regular season undergoing chemotherapy treatment, and has been absent throughout the playoffs in recovery.  His replacement, assistant coach Adrian Dantley, has been nothing more than a placeholder in that time.  Dantley has failed to light a fire underneath these Nuggets, watching as they make serial mistakes on defense and bog down into one-dimensional stagnation on offense.

And where George was a master of in-game adjustments, Dantley is anything but.

The strength of Denver’s bench was utilized to perfection in the first 3/4 of the season by Karl, whose career has been predicated on his understanding of on-court chemistry & matchups.  Now Denver’s B-team is so ineffective that the series may have been over before it began.  Chris Andersen has been a defensive liability and absent on the offensive boards.  Ty Lawson has not come in as a change of pace alongside Chauncey Billups, where he took pressure off the aging All-Star guard all season.  Instead, Lawson has only come in when Billups racks up too many fouls.  What a waste of raw talent.

Carmelo Anthony has been the one bright spot offensively, and JR Smith has played beyond his NBA experience defensively.

The rest of the team, even Chauncey Billups, has turned in a sub-par postseason performance.

And so, with Game 5 in Denver on Wednesday night, the Nuggets will be up against a wall and in need of 3 consecutive wins to move on.  If this team plays up to its potential, starting inside with increased effort and moving outside with improved shooting, Denver stands a very real chance of coming all the way back.  They are no doubt the better team when playing at peak efficiency, but the Nuggets have been so careless, lazy & without leadership that the turnaround would have to be nothing short of monumental.

Game 5: Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets

Wednesday, April 28^th on TNT & Altitude

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Seven Game Ones have been played in the NHL’s Stanley Cup Playoffs.  All seven games have been won by a single goal.  Two were decided by late 3^rd Period goals (Red Wings at Coyotes & Avalanche at Sharks), and two were decided by Overtime goals (Canadiens at Capitals & Kings at Canucks).

Four series saw the lower seed upset the higher seed in a road opener, including both 8 seeds overcoming their Conference’s top-seeded team.

At the heart of these tight games and unpredictable upsets is more than just parity.  Hockey’s second season is simply a completely different brand of NHL play, with higher stakes accelerated by a singular desire to hoist the greatest trophy in sports history.

Lord Stanley’s big silver cup is the Holy Grail where the NFL’s Lombardi Trophy, the NBA’s Larry O’Brien Trophy, and MLB’s Commissioner’s Trophy are just shiny rip-offs of the One True Cup.

That’s why you see these NHL players elevate their game to Olympic levels every April.  What is at stake is a place in history engraved alongside the names of the game’s greats.  No other major sport remembers its Champions in this way, and the Stanley Cup Playoffs take on an epic tone as soon as the puck drops.

Compared to the me-first flavor of the NBA Playoffs, the NHL postseason exemplifies a purity and sporting excellence that has been exorcised from professional basketball.

The Cup Playoffs are destiny discovered shift by shift, hit by hit.

The NBA Playoffs are exciting for sure, the story unfolding in a series of highlight-reel scores & denials made by some of the greatest playmakers on earth.  But the whole event is mitigated by whistle-happy referees under the barely-concealed control of NBA Commissioner David Stern.

The show is the thing, fair competition is secondary.

The tight controls placed on basketball’s playoffs come as a stark comparison to the Cup Playoffs.  Hockey referees routinely receive criticism for swallowing their whistles in the postseason, but the result is a return each year to hockey’s gritty roots.  Steps have been taken to protect players in a sport played at increasing speeds, but the average penalty is called less as the passion and ferocity is jacked up a level with each step closer to the Cup.

In the humble opinion of this lover of all things sport, it is competition perfected.

Every moment of every game is contested, ever momentum change accompanied by a palpable shift in the energy on the ice.  This feeling is so profound that it can be sensed in High Definition through a flat screen TV.  Incredible.

MLB’s playoffs are always nail-biters, but the tension is felt in the moments when nothing is happening.  That 3-2 count with a running in scoring position and the game on the line is absolutely intense.  But baseball’s most exciting moments are felt when all movement is stopped on the field.  Hockey’s hottest games are a non-stop thrill ride; a war parsed out into a thousand battles large and small all over the ice.

The one-and-done appeal of the NFL Playoffs has made pro football’s postseason the most watched per game among North American sports.  But the final two minutes of a contested NFL playoff tilt pales in comparison to the 3^rd Period of a Game 7 in any NHL Playoff Series.  And when the Cup Finals stretch to that highly anticipated final frame, two teams battling for immortality in silver, the result is nothing short of awed breathlessness for 60 minutes of unparalleled sporting excellence.

With Game One finished in 7 of 8 Conference Quarterfinal Series, NHL audiences have already seen what makes the Stanley Cup Playoffs the premier event in pro sports.

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Game Preview & Playoff Race Update

Well one week in Milwaukee and everything seems to have settled in the NBA… but not quite settled.

Realistically the Nuggets probably lost their shot at the number two seed with the home loss against San Antonio since the Mavericks just need one win or one Nuggets loss to clench.  Also, since Phoenix visits Utah on Wednesday, one of them is out if the Nuggets win tonight.  Now the game on Tuesday in Phoenix will be huge one way or another, but the importance can be lessened with a win tonight.

Now let me make this perfectly clear, if the Nuggets are to do anything in the playoffs they must beat Utah.  That is imperative.  Utah is a team that will crush the Nuggets in the first round if game one is in Utah, and Phoenix stands a good chance of beating the Nuggets at home or on the road.  If Phoenix beats the Nuggets for the third spot, but the Nuggets host Utah, Denver probably rolls through the first round.

Granted, they’d have to play LA in the second round, but there are benefits to playing the Lakers earlier.  (see: Chauncey Billups – legs)   If the Nuggets head to Phoenix in the Conference Final, they will deal with that then.  I just don’t see them anywhere near the Final if they visit Utah or have to play Phoenix and LA in succession.

1^st Quarter

8:58 Gotta hand it to Memphis… I always like their game plans.  Drive the lane, drive the lane, drive the lane.

Sure, such a strategy would never work against San Antonio (who they’ll have to beat at some future point to win their division), but it sure generates points and fouls against defense that like to spread out.   The Nuggets are doing the same on offense, but more because Memphis looks disorganized and apathetic.  Thus, Chauncey Billups is seeing a lot of open lanes.

6:40 So Kenyon Martin makes a nice block and sends the ball into the Memphis bench area.  As the fan behind the Grizzlies bench passes the ball back to Kenyon, Memphis coach Lionel Hollins stands up and bats the ball away.  Billups complains and is dealt a technical.  Tell me how that makes any kind of sense.

2:57 The Grizzlies have taken the lead by a point.  They are taking absolutely ridiculous shots and getting them to fall.  The Nuggets are slacking on the boards.

End Quarter Nuggets 32-31

The Grizzlies are getting a considerable amount of bad shots to fall along with shots after Nugget fouls.

Take away those, and the Nuggets seem to have a stranglehold on this game.  Nene and Carmelo Anthony are dominating against some pretty good bigs in Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay.   Also, as I look down the box score I notice 3 Grizzlies starters with 2 Personal Fouls and their backup center Hamed Haddadi with 3.

2^nd Quarter

8:07 Johan Petro hit the floor hard driving for a loose ball in the offensive end, and stays down.  After the commercial he’s seen sitting on the bench in less pain.  Good news.  Losing Petro at this point in the season would leave the Nuggets a little thin in the front court.

4:47 The Nuggets are doing what they should do, forcing the issue offensively and taking their game to the line.  Most importantly, they’re making their foul shots (15-19 FT).  If this keeps up (combined 9 PF among 4 starters), the Grizzlies are going to be forced to play with their bench in the fourth quarter.

On the other end, some recklessness with the basketball leads to 2 Carmelo Anthony fast breaks.  The Nuggets are showing signs of pulling away.

End Quarter Nuggets 63-57

The following is a list of the Grizzlies who project to be in foul trouble that affects their playing time:

Rudy Gay-3 PF

Zach Randolph-3 PF

Hasheem Thabeet-3 PF

Hamed Haddadi-3 PF

And here’s a list of the Nuggets:

Aaron Afflalo-3 PF

I wouldn’t even say the Nuggets are getting away with being on the good side of bad officiating.  Memphis is simply slashing at the basketball recklessly while the Nuggets drive to the basket.  The Nuggets are probably a little bit too much for Memphis anyway, but asking bench players to come in and produce against starters is a tall order.

I will say this about the Grizzlies: Mike Conley is a good basketball player.  He’s the only player on Memphis who’s been consistently effective.  I think if Memphis ever gets him a full team, or if he goes to a team just a little better than Memphis is right now, he could be a top-five point guard in the league.

3^rd Quarter

8:13 Very quickly in the quarter, Thabeet commits his fourth foul.  out goes Hasheem, in comes Haddadi.  Then Haddadi commits his fourth, out goes Haddadi, in comes Darrell Arthur.  The wheels are about to come off for Memphis.

4:21 The Nuggets are now systematically removing every viable threat from the game.

Gay has committed his fourth foul and will take a seat on the bench.  Melo drew the foul on an isolation drive from the top of the arch.  Melo missed a FT but the Nuggets are still pouring on the points at the line (25-30 FT).

1:28 I hate to talk about nothing except the foul situation, but this is what the game has come down to.   Haddadi just committed his fifth foul and now the Grizzlies are running out of options in the post.

1:13 Randolph apparently knows what I know and it makes him angry.  He’s whistled for his fourth foul hauling in a rebound and curses out the referee.  Zach Randolph Ejected

End Period Nuggets 93-74

The Nuggets are taking apart the Grizzlies like an expert chess player takes out an inferior player.

Every move presents a new complication that the later isn’t equipped to deal with.  Inevitably, mistakes are made which lead to more and greater mistakes.   The Nuggets look to set themselves up with an easy end game.

4^th Quarter

12:00 Petro is back in the game.  Thank God.

7:44 J.R. Smith and Aarron Afflalo are on fire from the 3 point line and Johan Petro is blocking shots and dominating the boards.  This game looks to be over.

0:00 The game ends without incident.

End Game Nuggets 132-101

In fairness, Memphis probably did more to themselves than Denver did, but to the Nuggets’ credit they played patiently and got out of the way while Memphis imploded.

Make no mistake about it; Denver won this game at the foul line (32-39).

Melo and Nene dominated the post, Afflalo recorded his first double-double (22 Points, 13 boards), and J.R. Smith dropped the hammer (6-14 3PT) with regularity.  But this game came down to crushing your opponents at the charity stripe.  You cannot win when you give your opponent 39 FT’s and the make 32.

This was just what the doctor ordered for the Nuggets’ hopes to win the Northwest Division.  Three starters played less than 29:00 minutes (Nene, Billups, Martin), so everyone should have plenty of energy to run with the Suns tomorrow.   A win Tuesday night in Phoenix clenches the 3 seed.

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Brian Butch will join the Nuggets after Denver lost another big man to injury last Thursday.  Chris “Birdman” Andersen suffered an ankle sprain against Portland, and joins big Power Forward Kenyon Martin on the list of injuries to Denver’s frontcourt.

Butch, a 6’ 11” Center who played college ball with the Wisconsin Badgers, has played all season with the Bakersfield Jam of the NBA’s Development League.  Brian averaged nearly 19 points and 12 rebounds in his time with the Jam.

Interestingly, Chris Andersen also came to the Nuggets from the D-League nearly ten years ago.  Birdman was playing with the Fayetteville Patriots in 2001 when Denver called him to NBA action.  Andersen has had an up-and-down career since, missing two seasons due to substance abuse issues.  However, he did come in second in the NBA last season in total blocks with 175, well behind top shot-blocker Dwight Howard’s 231.

For Butch, the learning curve will be much shorter.

The Nuggets need Brian to be a contributor in their final 5 games in order to land a respectable playoff slot.  The team currently sits in a 4-way tie with Dallas, Utah & Phoenix for the West’s second playoff seed.  Every game has enormous home-court playoff implications in this final stretch, and that’s why the Nuggets pulled the trigger on a player with no NBA experience.

Denver may need even more than a token 5-game contribution from Butch, as there is no guarantee that Kenyon Martin will be able to return to the team after injuring his knee 16 games ago.  Martin has been undergoing an advanced form of rehabilitation & treatment in an effort to get him back in powder blue for the playoffs, but may end up needing season-ending surgery if his recovery isn’t near flawless.

That puts the onus on Andersen to get healthy in a hurry and Butch to get his NBA legs even faster.  Wednesday night’s game against Oklahoma City will be Brian Butch’s first test in the big leagues, and may go far in foretelling the Nuggets’ playoff future.

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All of the above statements are true.  And although the first three may sound like negatives, they are simply characteristics of a key role-player in this Nuggets organization.  (We’ll get to the fourth one later.)

AC was undrafted out of Hawaii, initially playing with the Minor League Sun Kings before signing with the Heat.  He has played ten years in the NBA at Miami, San Antonio, Minnesota & Denver… and he has never once averaged more than 30 minutes a game.

That means he has always been a depth guy, a bench player.  And not the fancy “sixth man” type of bench player either.  Carter has only averaged more than 6.5 points once in that span; during his 2007-2008 season with Denver.

That ’07-’08 season is worth noting, because it was the only season that Anthony Carter was a consistent starter.

He marched out for the opening tip-off in 67 of his 70 games that season, and still only averaged 28 minutes per.  It was his best statistical season by far in almost every major category.  In ten seasons, that single campaign stands out as Carter’s opus.

And don’t think I’m being facetious here.  A slow, undrafted guard with terrible range starting alongside Carmelo Anthony, Marcus Camby & Kenyon Martin is a sight to behold.  Carter even improved to 35% from beyond the arc.  (Compared to his career average of 25%.)  Not bad for a role-player.

And boy does George Karl love his role players, especially at the Point Guard position.

George loved Earl Boykins, the very undersized PG who won the hearts of Nuggets fans as the little guard that could (hit 90% of his free throws.)  And Karl loves Anthony Carter for the same reasons: fundamentals & work ethic.  That alone justifies Carter’s tenure here in Denver, and for the last three seasons I assumed that his workmanlike resolve was the only thing keeping Anthony in uniform, much less on the court.

In fact, I’ve been talking trash about Carter (most especially his awkward attempts at threes) ever since he came to the Nuggets.  My Nugget buddies and I had been waiting for the blessed moment when Anthony Carter would be relegated to towel duty.  He just seemed like such a schmuck out there with all those stars.  Then tragedy struck…

Rookie phenom Ty Lawson, the heir-apparent to Chauncey Billups, went down with a shoulder injury.  Lawson had usurped Carter’s backup role in mid-January, playing very effectively with the energetic second unit.  A left shoulder contusion took him out of a key game against the Lakers, which was an especially shameful shame considering Lawson has earned the title “Laker Bane” in his short time with the Nuggets.

But in those dark days after our own little Weapon X went down, I saw something different in the play of AC.  Old Mr. Carter started playing like a less talented Chauncey Billups, and the Nuggets started plowing through lesser opponents.

Nothing tells the story of a player better than plus/minus (the difference in scoring while that player is on the court).  In the eight games since Lawson got hurt, Anthony Carter went +7, +9, -1, +14, -5, +12, +8 & +7.  Seven of those eight games were wins.

Carter is also averaging 6 assists per game over that span, quite a feat for a guy playing around 18 minutes each night.  For some perspective, Chauncey Billups is averaging 4.0 assists per game playing 30-40 minutes.

Better yet, Carter has gone out in tight situations in the 3^rd & 4^th Quarters and sparked big-time, game-changing scoring sprees with his team behind on the scoreboard.  He has played stellar defense against some very talented guards, and his three-point shooting just hit 30% accuracy for the month of March.  Anthony is stretching defenses (a little), penetrating the lane (mostly with accurate passes), and changing the course of NBA basketball games.

Unexpected as it may be, Anthony Carter is enjoying a sort of Renaissance… the sort of Renaissance a career backup has when his team really, really needs him.  He even added some extra ink in the past few years to match the tattoo flavor of the neo-Nuggets. What more can you ask for from a teammate?

AC may be relegated to the bench again when the super-speedy Ty Lawson returns in a few games.  But for two weeks in March of 2010, with injuries ravaging the depths of this Denver team, Anthony Carter elevated his game.  What a great guy to have on a basketball team.

Try these ones on…

Anthony Carter the dedicated.  Anthony Carter the consistent.  Anthony Carter the valued.

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Kevin Durant is built for the quick passing game of the modern NBA, and his height allows him to be an imposing presence on the boards.  KD is second in the NBA in scoring behind Lebron James, and his age (21) suggests that he has room to improve.

That’s where Carmelo Anthony comes in.

Melo is becoming Kevin’s go-to rival in a Northwest Division that lacks any other talents of Durant’s caliber.  (Especially at the Small Forward position.)  The two have traded blows on the court all season, and Carmelo’s beat-down of the young man in Denver was an important development.

Kevin had outplayed Carmelo in two previous matchups, and Anthony knew he needed a big game against the streaking Oklahoma City Thunder.

Carmelo (30 pts, 8 rebs, 2 stl, 1 blk) came out shooting hot.  He finished with a third quarter that saw a more complete Melo come up with a series of big steals, assists, and no-doubter shots.  The Nuggets rotated toward Durant with their big, physical frontcourt all night.  Kevin is best on the move, and Denver forced him to post-up or pass.

Durant (19 pts, 4 reb, 3 ast) couldn’t hang.  The Nuggets blew out the Thunder 119-90 in a game where they lead by 40.

Carmelo has been in the NBA long enough (6.5 years) to have seen his share of blowout losses.  It takes plenty to develop a Champion.  As defenses focus more and more on Durant (2.5 years) this season, so too did they focus on Anthony in the past.

For his part, Carmelo has learned to take the bad losses and get up for the big games.  He has also learned to shut down a streaking young player with a crushing home-court defensive presence.  In a season where the Nuggets are looking for nothing less than a run to the NBA Championship, Melo had to put his size 15 foot down with a rising contender coming to town.

For now, Kevin will have to take his lumps.  Durant is a young man on a young team trying to challenge the big dogs in a stacked conference.  Despite being slotted in as the 6^th playoff team in the West, OKC is a feeble 15-22 against .500 or better teams.  Durant has carried his team to an impressive overall record, but he and the Thunder are not playoff-ready.  Like Melo in Denver, Kevin will need to round out his game… and find ways to make his teammates better on both sides of the court.

Durant will be back, and he will adapt.

More than that, he will continue to challenge Carmelo to shoot-outs.  The Thunder’s defense simply cannot contain the Nuggets when the Denver offense is flowing well.  But just as Denver improved over the last few years to contend with the smart, diverse offenses of San Antonio & Los Angeles, the Thunder will need to toughen up to compete with the physical Nuggets.

If Durant and OKC can fill out their D, they will be a tough out for Denver.  Every game played by these divisional rivals deepens the ties between a peaking power and a growing threat.  Kevin Durant vs Carmelo Anthony is a story that is just beginning.

As fate would have it, the Nuggets sit at 3^rd in the West.  If the playoffs started today, the first stop on the Thunder’s first postseason trip since moving to OKC from Seattle would be Denver’s Pepsi Center.

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Billups & Anthony have anchored the league's 3rd-best team

Before characterizing the Nuggets, who have quietly been ambushing opponents and analysts alike, let’s review where they currently stand in relation to the rest of the league:

With 35 games to be played…

-Denver is currently in first place in the Northwest Division with a record of 32-15, which is 4 games ahead of both Utah and Portland,

-Denver holds the second-best home record in the league at 21-3,

-the Nuggets have the third-best overall record in the NBA behind only Cleveland and the L.A. Lakers; both of whom Denver has defeated,

-finally, Denver has defeated Cleveland, L.A. and Orlando; each of which stands atop their respected divisions.

With all of these impressive stats in place, the Nuggets are still lacking two important elements; bench productivity and size.

Compared to last year Chris “Birdman” Anderson is averaging less points and blocks per game, and J.R. Smith is also averaging less points per game, yet receiving more minutes (due to team injuries.) Neither player is producing as they did the previous year, and it is putting pressure on the rest of the Nuggets’ reserves. A lot of that pressure has been placed upon a rookie point guard in Ty Lawson & new starter Aaron Afflalo, both of whom seem to have embraced their hastily-given responsibilities.

In relation to size, Denver’s Nene does have a nice quick shot and great game endurance, but he lacks attitude and gives up a little in height to consistently pull down offensive and defensive rebounds. Melo, Chauncey and Kenyon Martin, despite injuries have managed to develop a great on-court relationship, leading to greater point and assist production for each.

An adversary of this season’s Nuggets has undoubtedly been the challenge to sustain a healthy starting five. Melo, Chauncey, Nene and Kenyon Martin have all seen their unwanted share of the bench this year, with that in mind it is fare to say that the Denver Nuggets are a better team than their impressive record indicates. Heading down the stretch I believe this team can push themselves to peak in time for the playoffs, while maintaining a rotation that gives Melo and Chauncey time to rest and recover. That means Coach Karl will not only have to game-plan against specific opponents, but also game-plan for the best interest of his star players as well.

With all that said, I believe the Nuggets will be the greatest threat to the Lakers as Los Angeles tries to repeat last year’s Championship run.

With a tough 35 game schedule ahead, I predict the Nuggets, healthy or not, can come away with a 23-12 record and take the division running away. This week the Denver Nuggets schedule looks like this:

Monday, February 1st, Sacramento (Home) *Must Win

Wednesday, February 3rd, Phoenix (Home) *Shoot-Out, Win

Friday, February 5th, L.A. Lakers (Away) *Hangover, naw, we’ll beat ‘dem Lakers

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1. Soap on a Rope. For Josh McDaniels’ mouth.

2. Prescription Glasses. For Knowshon Moreno, maybe he’ll be able to see the hole and then run through it.

3. The best possible medical care for Chauncey Billups. (Come back,, buddy, we miss you!)

4. A real big-boy apartment for Matt Duchene – he’s growing up in the NHL before our eyes. Can’t wait to see what the future brings with this kid.

5. Electric Blanket for Carmelo Anthony. Anything to make sure he doesn’t suddenly cool off on us.

6. A decent starter to join the Rockies rotation. Nothing witty about this one, it’s just something we won’t go too far in 2010 without.

7. A checkbook for Dan O’Dowd, blank checks pre-signed and ready to spend from the Monforts. (I know, a guy can dream, can’t he?)

8. A big fat fruit basket for every team that passed on Ty Lawson in the NBA draft. Thanks guys… you’re almost as precious to us as Joe Dumars after the Darko draft and AI trade…

9. A t-shirt cannon for Kyle Orton. Oh yeah, and an evil genius to cybernetically remove his right arm and replace it with said cannon.

10. Ah heck, I’ll just say it – I really really really really really RE-HEE-HEE-HEELY want to see October baseball again in 2010.

What do you wish for? Whatever it is, leave it in the comments so we can all enjoy… and no matter what you’re celebrating today, I hope your day is filled with joy, peace, and a Nuggets win against the Blazers tonight.

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