The Northwest Division saw a brief shakeup mid-week when Vancouver crushed the Flames in Calgary.  The Flames eventually used one of their games-in-hand to climb back over the Canucks by beating the lowly Oilers 4-1.

However, Vancouver’s increasingly dangerous play (especially their dominance within the division) has made them real contenders for the division crown.  The Avalanche managed to hold strong as they were the first team in the division to realize 50 points before the half-way point in the season.  But Colorado will need to find some consistency to hold its 3-point lead over the struggling Flames, and its 4-point lead over the surging Canucks.

In a soft week featuring only two games, the Avalanche gave up another (#@$%&*!!) 2-goal third-period lead at home to the Ducks, and followed that shameful performance with an impressive handling of the formerly hot Dallas Stars.

Two wins last week would have been nice, because the Avalanche start a tough week on the road in one of the toughest arenas to land a visiting win…

Wed, Dec 30^th @ Ottawa Senators (5:00 MST)

After visiting nearly every Canadian city in its first month of play, the Avalanche had to wait two months to make its one and only trip to Ottawa this season.

This matchup against the Senators looks about as good as they come.

The Sens have struggled with their two (mostly bad) goaltenders all season, and the Avs have routinely punished bad defensive teams.  Colorado plays very well on the road, more or less neutralizing Ottawa’s considerable home-ice advantage.

The Avalanche are well-rested and <knock> healthy.  They have consistently beaten Eastern Conference teams over three consecutive seasons.  And Ottawa is, to put it bluntly, a slow, older team that employs an outdated strategy.

Still, the Avalanche have struggled in the Canadian capital city since coming to Colorado, and this will likely need to be a gut-it-out game for the ‘Lanche to produce a victory.  Then again, the Senators’ goaltending problems could rear up, allowing the Avalanche to run away with the game early.

I’ll stick with the great-on-paper look of this matchup, and call it an Avs win.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, SENATORS 3

Thu, Dec 31^st @ Detroit Red Wings (5:00 MST)

Over this season and last, the Avalanche have trounced the formerly rival Red Wings, winning 5 of 6 games.  In the two games this season, Colorado has made Detroit look old, slow, tired & injury depleted… and by most accounts that is exactly what the middling Red Wings have been since losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the ’09 Cup Championships Series.

What’s more, none of those things have changed since last these two teams met.

The Avalanche will have a short trip over from Ottawa to complete the second half of a back-to-backer, and will be particularly motivated should fall to the Senators.

I like the Avalanche to play another strong road game in Detroit, and eek out an OT win.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 2, RED WINGS 1 (OT)

Sat, Jan 2^nd @ Columbus Blue Jackets (5:00 MST)

I tried so hard to find a loss in this tough three-game road stretch, but it’s just not there.  The Senators game could go either way depending on goalie play for each team, and I picked a win over the Wings because Detroit has been on an ugly slide of late.

But the Blue Jackets have looked even uglier, dropping 17 games in their last 20 played.  That’s horrendous.

With the level of parody in the NHL being what it is, there is no excuse except a total systemic collapse (including your formerly stud goaltender struggling late in games) for that many bad games in a row.

One of the Blue Jackets’ three wins over that terrible five-week stretch came on Monday against the Red Wings (a 1-0 OT barn-burner.)  They will have that victory to look back upon fondly when the Avalanche complete their three-game road sweep in Columbus this Saturday.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 4, COLUMBUS 1

WEEK 12 PREDICTION:  3-0

**Bonus Coverage**

Happy New Year to us!!

Avalanche forward Chris Durno finally scored his first NHL goal after a very successful career in the AHL.  His call-up last season for two games, and thrice this season for a dozen games has been the result of his hard work for the Lake Erie Monsters, as witnessed by current Avalanche coach (and former Monsters coach) Joe Sacco.

That Durno did not score sooner is not actually so surprising, despite his great minor-league play.  Chris is simply a strong, hard-working defensive forward, and his success in the AHL was much more a result of out-willing opponents than outstanding stick handling.  He worked on his foot speed in the offseason to give himself a better chance at a long-term call-up, and that’s exactly what he got.  Many Kudos to Chris.

In other news, this sportswriter is off to New Orleans, and will probably be too debauched to watch the two games that take place before the New Year.  I’ll do some extra-hard drinking if y’all do some extra-hard cheering.

Stay thirsty Avs fans.  2010 in ‘Lancheville promises to be a wild ride.

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Alexander Ovechkin & Jose Theodore will make a rare appearance at Pepsi Center on Tuesday night

The ebb and flow of the injury report saw Avalanche goalie Craig Anderson return to the ice just in time for Milan Hejduk and Marek Svatos to sit out as day-to-day scratches.  Ruslan Salei is worse-off than initial reports suggested, and there is no definitive timeline for Kyle Cumiskey’s return.

And yet the Avalanche keep on winning!

They logged a comeback victory over the Lightning, and another (!!!) regulation smiting of the division-rival Calgary Flames.  That the Avalanche cannot beat the lesser three teams in the Northwest is… puzzling at best.  The Avs laid another egg at home versus the Wild, failing to score despite an outstanding effort from Peter Budaj.

However, knocking off the Flames three times in three tries with a trio of three-to-two victories (two of them at Calgary) has the Avalanche alone atop the division nearing the halfway point in the season.

Calgary will have its chance to catch up to Colorado, but not right away.  The Avalanche have played three more games than the Flames and only lead by two points, but both teams have a light schedule this week.

The Avs’ mini-break from Tuesday to Saturday couldn’t have come at a better time for this injury-depleted squad as they gear up for a nasty stretch of games to close out 2010.

Tue, Dec 15th vs Washington Capitals (7:30 MST)

There are a lot of intriguing story lines for this game…

The best team in the East meets the third-best in the West.  Alexander Ovechkin brings his awe-inspiringly great game to Pepsi Center.  And Jose Theodore will likely make the start for the Capitals in his first return to Denver since being slapped around by Detroit in the second round of the 2007 playoffs.

Not that Colorado fans hold anything against Jose (except maybe his exorbitant salary.)  He played really well in every other game in the regular season, and was a stud in two first-round playoff victories over the Dallas Stars (2006) and the Minnesota Wild (2007).

But now Theodore is in a time-share with Semyon Varlamov in Washington.  He isn’t as quick as he once was, and one can assume that he still takes mid-game naps that lead to cheap goals for the opposing team.

I’d rather see Varlamov in this one, because I know how good a motivated Theodore can be.  We can assume that Caps head coach Bruce Boudreau knows this as well, even if Varlamov is clearly the more talented goaltender in any given game.  (I once suggested that the Avs should trade Jose for a bag of peanuts.  Read this recent Caps blog on trading Jose for a bag of pucks.)

No matter who starts in net for the Caps, their Defense is the real liability.  Home ice will likely decide this one in favor of the Avs, but a hot goaltender for either side is just as likely to swing the contest.  I like the Avs in a high-scoring thrilla.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, CAPITALS 4

Sat, Dec 19^th vs Columbus Blue Jackets (7:00 MST)

The Avs nipped the Jackets 3-2 in Columbus in the teams’ only meeting this season on December 5^th.  I see no reason to believe that the Jackets will fare any better this time around.

Peter Budaj started that game for the Avalanche, and I would love to see him start this game as well.  Budaj proved in Craig Anderson’s injury-induced absence that he is up to the task of defeating fair-to-middling teams.  And as fellow PSC writer Dan Olson wrote recently, the most glaring error committed by the Colorado coaching staff this season has been not resting Anderson enough with stand-out backup Budaj readily available.

Either goalie would be a worthy opponent for Blue Jackets goaltender Steve Mason, but the Avs are buzzing on offense right now and Columbus just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 3, BLUE JACKETS 1

Mon, Dec 21^st @ Minnesota Wild (6:00 MST)

As sick as I am of watching this team lose to the lowly Wild, the Avs themselves must be twice as disgusted.  The Wild have beaten the Avalanche four times in four tries, and those losses account for a sizeable chunk of Colorado’s losses this season.

The Avalanche players and coaches know that they have to go into Minnesota next Monday and find a way to win.  I offer this helpful hint: hold on to the &*@#$% puck!

The Wild only do one thing well, and that is puck possession.  They are the Avs’ kryptonite for that reason alone.  The Avalanche like to run with their controlled chaos/neutral zone super-speed style on offense, and a good possession team like the Wild can be very disruptive so long as they keep the play in front of their defenders.

In the defensive end the Avalanche do well unless its opponent can cycle endlessly until something opens up.  Enter the Wild, whose only offensive play goes roughly “cycle, cycle, cycle, throw the puck to Andrew Brunette or Mikko Koivu.”

Enough is enough Avs.  Let’s beat these bottom-feeders!  Discipline dammit!

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 2, WILD 1 (SO)

WEEK 9 PREDICTION:  3-0

**Bonus Coverage**

Remember the name ‘Stoa’

Ryan Stoa was not supposed to play for the Avalanche until next year, but the NHL has no script except “win, win, win”.  Stoa’s NHL career has been accelerating towards his first start (in Sunday’s win over Calgary) for two years.

It all began with the Avalanche drafting the young power forward in the second round of the 2005 NHL draft.  After a standout year with the NCAA Minnesota Gophers, Stoa is looking like a second-round steal of first-round talent.

A rash of injuries for the Avalanche contributed to Ryan being called up last week from the Avs’ AHL affiliate team, the Lake Erie Monsters.  More than that, though, there is the noteworthy (and awesome) philosophy practiced by this new Colorado coaching staff; young talent should develop in an NHL environment.

Remember that head coach Joe Sacco coached the Monsters before being called up to the big leagues himself in the offseason.  And while he may have only coached Ryan briefly (Stoa decided to forgo a fifth season at Minnesota in favor of signing with Colorado in March,) Sacco certainly maintains close ties within the Monsters franchise.

Ryan Stoa will follow Matt Duchene and Ryan O’Reilly to the Avs, and will be the old man of the 2009-2010 rookie class at 22 years of age.  Despite less NHL experience than Duchene or O’Reilly, Stoa should make a similarly impressive impact.  He logged 24 goals and 22 assists with the Gophers last season, and is a noted on-ice leader.  Welcome to the bigs, young Master Stoa, and best of luck to ye.

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Avalanche 2nd Goaltender Peter Budaj

image by Sakic_19

The (veteran?) Avalanche goaltender with the oft-mispronounced last name was the savior of the Avalanche in Week 10.

After starting goalie Craig Anderson was intentionally injured by the dirtiest little defender in the league (Keith Ballard) one week ago at Florida, Peter Budaj stepped into the crease and immediately began playing inspired hockey.

Anderson lay prostrate on the ice in the closing seconds of overtime on Dec 2^nd.  The Avalanche had scrambled to tie the contest with two goals in the final minute of the third period. (Thirty-seven seconds apart @ 19:07 & 19:44.)  Ballard, streaking down the right side, leaned into Anderson’s head as Craig covered the puck just outside of his crease.

Adam Foote, skating back on the opposite side of the goal, met Ballard on the ice at the back of the net and landed three fists (one face, two side of head) before a pile of players and referees smothered the fight.

Ballard is the same skating yutz that slashed his own goaltender’s ear two nights previous.  Krazy Keith swung his stick in frustration after a first period goal.  Instead of hitting his intended target (a goal post) Ballard struck goalie Tomas Vokoun in the side of the head.  Vokoun was taken to the hospital with a deep laceration to his ear.  Ballard went on to ignore his injured goaltender to take another, more successful swing at the post.

Ballard would later issue an apology to Vokoun (who was back on the ice by Saturday,) but not to Anderson.  Craig sat out the week with a neck injury, and Peter filled in magnificently with two wins and one close loss.

Over the five-game road trip, the Avalanche grabbed 7/10 possible points and returned to the #1 spot in the Northwest Division.  Kiss off, Krazy Keith, you can’t ruin our party.

Wed, Dec 9th @ Minnesota Wild (7:00 MST)

Budaj will likely start again tonight, and he’ll look to land the Avs’ first win against some Wild Minnesotans.

Despite three spirited games, the Avalanche have faltered against the division’s bottom-feeding Wild.  Colorado lost one in regulation and two in shootouts, so they nabbed a couple of pity points, but this home game needs to be a decisive win.

Look for the Avalanche to play hard for both their injured star goalie and their suddenly stellar backup after a rockin’ roadtrip.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 4, WILD 1

Fri, Dec 11^th vs Tampa Bay Lightning (7:00 MST)

A week and a half ago Tampa put 33 shots on net against Craig Anderson, and not a single one got through.  The Lightning played a good game (buzzing until the game was out of reach after an Avs empty-netter late in the third,) but Anderson was simply better.

I expect Anderson to play after being listed as day-to-day since the injury.  Being out of the lineup is likely an opportunity to catch Anderson up on lost rest.  He played the most games in the NHL over the first two plus months.  But I guarantee Anderson wants to get back in net.

Watch Craig come in with his usual fire and a little extra against Tampa, and I like the Avalanche to capitalize on the Lightning’s aggressive neutral-zone play.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, LIGHTNING 2

Sun, Dec 13^th vs Calgary Flames (6:00 MST)

I know we’ve had the Flames’ number this year, but Calgary is just too good to lose to us every time.

Twin 3-2 wins at Calgary are nothing less than a slap in the face to Colorado’s top competition for the division… and I expect the Flames to ride into Denver with twin chips on their shoulders as a result.

The Avalanche will need another outstanding goaltending performance to beat Calgary again, but I think the Flames’ D will stand strongest in this game.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 1, FLAMES 2 (SO)

WEEK 9 PREDICTION:  2-1

**Bonus Coverage**

The Ballard Effect

Florida’s Keith Ballard is quickly becoming a noteworthy thug in the National Hockey League… but he’s not big… and he’s not tough… he’s just a fiery idiot.

The result is going to be a lot of attention from opposing enforcers.  That was already the case in two games against Washington and Atlanta, as Ballard spent much of both nights with his face against glass and boards.

But those minor rubs are nothing compared to what awaits Krazy Keith when he takes the ice at Pepsi Center on March 11^th of 2010.  I’m gonna get a ticket.  Double K is going down.

Craig Anderson was a backup in Florida last season, and this was his first game back since signing with the Avalanche in the offseason.  His injury was an instance of damned if you do, damned if you don’t, as Craig could have very well been in net to take Ballard’s stick to the head had he stayed with the Panthers.

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#19 was raised to the rafters at Pepsi Center, next Super Joe will enter the CO Sports Hall of Fame (4/20/10)

Whoa is the team that starts hot, for the first losing streak is all the more painful.

The fast start for Colorado’s new-look Avalanche has faded into a series of missed opportunities and blowout losses.  The best team in the NHL in October, the Avs have been decidedly middle-of-the-road in November, posting a 2-3-1 record since the beginning of the month.

Offense is the big reason, as young stars Matt Duchene and Ryan O’Reilly have all but disappeared in recent weeks, and the team’s Power Play efficiency has seen a precipitous decline that mirrors its recent three-game losing streak.

It’s not time to push the Panic! button yet, but the way Colorado handles its upcoming three-game road trip around the Northwest Division will speak volumes on the character and the long-term viability of the 2009-10 Avalanche.  The first game is the biggest, but each game in-division is a big deal with what will likely be a tight pack going forward.

Tue, Nov 17^th @ Calgary Flames (7:30 MST)

Despite losing five of their seven games since defeating the Flames in Calgary on October 28^th, the Avalanche still cling to a one-point lead in the Northwest Division.  That lead would likely be a deficit if not for the fact that the Avalanche have played two more games than the Flames to date.  And so this rematch of division leaders takes on particular importance for Colorado, who just finished getting blown away at home by third-best in the Northwest, the Vancouver Canucks.

I called the first trip to Calgary unwinnable barring a minor miracle, and the Avalanche delivered just that.  Trailing by two goals a few minutes into the game, the Avalanche stormed back to win that game 3-2.  This game will be as tough or tougher, as the Flames have been playing very good hockey, and have the good fortune of logging their first two matchups against the Avalanche this season on their home ice.

So I’ll stick to my guns once again and say that the Avalanche will need a minor miracle to pull out a win in a matchup that will determine which team sits atop the Northwest.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 1, FLAMES 3

Wed, Nov 18^th @ Edmonton Oilers (7:00 MST)

The Oilers are not as good as their 3-5 victory over the Avalanche in Denver last week, and the Avalanche are better than their play in that game or the two losses since.

After what will likely be a loss in Calgary tonight, the Avalanche have to pack up and take their tour of Canadian hockey cities to Edmonton for a game the next night.  Many times, back-to-back road games against divisional opponents is a recipe for disaster, and that could well be the case this week.  But I have a feeling about this game against Edmonton, and that feeling is that Colorado will find a way to right the ship against a lesser opponent in its own house.

The key to this game will be the Power Play, but the Avalanche are finally starting to look healthy (knock, knock) and that increases their odds for a standout team performance.  Look for the boys in burgundy to play hyper-motivated hockey and pull out a decisive win on unfriendly ice.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, OILERS 2

Fri, Nov 20^th @ Vancouver Canucks (8:00 MST)

Another night, another road game against a Canadian divisional rival.  Nope, I don’t like the looks of this one.

The Canucks have manhandled the Avalanche in their last two meetings, one in Vancouver (0-3 shutout) and the other here in Colorado (2-8 shellacking).  The Canucks have played the Avalanche like the Avalanche played the rest of the league in October; solid defense that frustrates opponents into getting overly aggressive and giving up transition chances.

It is doubtful that the Avs will be able to best the Canucks with their mutually successful style after two brutal losses playing the same game, especially with this matchup taking place in Vancouver.  I like the Avalanche to play better this time around, but the end of this little trip around the division looks to end a lot like it started.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 1, CANUCKS 3

WEEK 8 PREDICTION:  1-2

**Bonus Coverage**

Peter Forsberg’s agent has confirmed that Foppa will stay in Sweden this season instead of making another NHL comeback.  Potential suitors for a Forsberg return to North American ice did not include the Avalanche anyway (Vancouver GM Mike Gillis broke the story.)  So this is good news for those of us who would rather see Peter play out whatever is left of his career for Sweden’s Modo and his national team than see a Canucks sweater with “Forsberg” gracing the back.

In other ex-Avalanche news, Joe Sakic has been selected for the Colorado Sports Hall of Fame.  His induction ceremony will take place on April 20^th of 2010.  Congrats to Super Joe on his first (but certainly not last) Hall of Fame selection.

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