Saint Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche

The Saint Louis Blues have been the definition of an up-&-down team this season.  They are closer to playing precisely .500 hockey than any team in the West right now (25-24-9), and have struggled mightily to generate offensive chances, especially of late.  Saint Louis will enter the Pepsi Center tonight as underdogs to the struggling Colorado Avalanche.

Yet, despite putting together five & seven game losing streaks, the Blues are still just seven points below the playoff field.  Their defense is the best of the non-playoff teams in the league, and they boast an impressive two-headed veteran goaltending duo in Ty Conklin & Chris Mason (both stretching just beyond their prime at 33 years old.)

So this will be no easy test for the Avalanche.  The Colorado Kids have had offensive struggles of their own of late, even in beating down the hapless Edmonton Oilers 3-0 on Saturday night.  That 42-shot effort only netted two goals against a bad goaltender and a worse defense, the third score coming as an empty-netter with less than a minute left in the game.

To beat the Blues, the Avalanche will need to find ways to finish plays, as they have seen no shortage of scoring chances in recent games.  The Avs’ defense has been playing spectacularly lately, and if Craig Anderson gets another start the Blues’ offense will have a rough night.  I like the Avalanche to win a tight one in Colorado.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 2, BLUES 0

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Pre-Game Thoughts

I heard that tonight TJ Galiardi will be playing the top line tonight with Stas and Stewy for a good amount of time… meaning Wojtek will be playing second line with Duchene and Yip.   Durno gets the job centering the fourth line.

Anderson will get the start, 12^th in a row.  He has shut out the Oilers twice this year, but it’s the Oilers on a back to back.  Peter Budaj should be handling this one.

1^st Period Action

The second line takes the opening faceoff.  Interesting move, but probably just a gut decision by Sacco. Stas is +12 against the Oilers, so he’ll get his time.

The top line’s first shot shows why they’re the top line.  3 shots, two scoring chances.

16:05 Nice check by the refs.

The first 5 minutes of the game is pretty much all Avalanche.  Only two good rushes by the Oilers and both were defused quickly.  The Avs appear content to work in On the Fly and then Crash the Net.

Cumisky came to play.  Skinny guy skating hard & fast.

Two on one for Aves broken up nicely by the Oilers.

Next five minutes is pretty much the same, though the Avs couldn’t manage any good shots.  Edmonton had a great Keep-In to extend the play. If not for some nice physical play from Cumisky, they would have earned a shot on the possession.

Edmonton has moved to the Dump & Chase since they can’t get any offense going working it in at the line.

Quincey Slashing.  First PP of the game goes to Edmonton.

At 0:29 of the PP, Foote gets the best shot of the Oilers’ man-advantage. Slapshot from 25 feet dead center off the faceoff.  Top-notch kill by Colorado, 0 Shots allowed.

The third five minutes are spent all at center ice or on the Penalty Kill.  Edmonton has one good stretch (45-55 seconds) of pressure but could generate no shots.  Avalanche defenders not giving them time to think.

Tripping on Edmonton. Kind of an accident but you are in charge of your stick.

Avss generating plenty of shots, but can’t find the net.

Another penalty earns Avs 5-3 for 0:01.  Hooray.

Period ends.

The Avs are doing plenty to get themselves good chances and take away Edmonton’s chances, but they need to find the back of the net.  They’ve been so close so many times.   To be fair Deslauriers has been pretty good, but not great.  Keep the pressure on and eventually you’ll get a goal.

The whole defense is playing good, fast harassing defense.  Edmonton can’t get into any kind of grove offensively.  Anderson has been tested only twice really.  Slap shot from 15 feet left side, but the defender took away the far side. Later a wrap-around try on the right side.  Both solid saves but nothing amazing.

2^nd Period Action

Avalanche are spending a lot of time in the Oilers’ zone, but no shots to show for it.   They are being a little sloppy with the puck. The same goes for the Oilers in the neutral zone.

Like they could hear my thoughts, Colorado picks it up and gets two good shots. One set up by Duchene working into the zone. One by Tucker streaking down the right side.

First five minutes of the 2^nd are the same story as the rest of the game.   Avs get good pressure, defense is quick and efficient at clearing the zone, nothing to show for it.

The Oilers are starting to get some decent pressure with their top line, but the Colorado defense is giving up nothing.

Duchene is a machine he gets such good looks every game.

Matty gets the puck after a Keep-In on the left side draws the sole defender to him.  Duchene drops it off for Wojtek.  Wolski puts a wrister on from 10 feet.  Deslauriers get a piece of it, but it bounces through.   Goal.  Good hard work to keep possession of the puck by Scott Hannan.  He knows we have the defense on his side so he pinches on the blue line against two Oilers, and then Duchene has an easy choice to drive & drop off.

Second five minutes is about the same game, but finally have the goal to go along with good effort.  Keep the pressure and the efficient defense up, this one should be a solid win.

First really good shot on Andy. Moreau slapshot from 20 feet, right side. Wide open shot, but Andy saw it all the way.

Colorado’s third line has moved to the Dump & Chase as well. Everyone else is still in neutral zone Control Game trying to work it in at the line.

Third five Minutes is about half & half. Edmonton has stepped it up with the one goal deficit, but Avs still look like the better team.

Two good rushes right away by Edmonton, Andy is pretty good on both.  One was caused by a neutral zone mistake, and the other a great cross-ice pass from the left defensive blue line to the right offensive blue line.

Edmonton gets one more good pressure as do the Avs to close the period.  One shot by each.

Period ends.

Avalanche got the goal and immediately Edmonton woke up.  The Avs had been dominating a scoreless game for 35ish minutes, and playing pretty even in a 1-0 game since.  Neutral zone defense has been the biggest contributor to Edmonton’s revival. Their fore-check there has gotten much more aggressive and turned into some pretty good rushes with shots.  Other than the rush, Edmonton can get extended pressure but no shots.  The Avs’ defense still has firm control in their own zone.

On offense the Avalanche did the same thing for 35ish minutes: good sustained pressure and open shooting.  They finally got the goal that should go along with it.  Since then they have gotten sustained pressure when they can put the puck into the zone, but sloppy puck handling and good Edmonton neutral zone defense seems to have taken away the rush.

The game has been basically all speed no physicality, which would explain there have been so few penalties. But the lack of goal scoring has been mainly exceptional defensive-zone play on both sides.

3^rd Period Action

Second line starts the period again.  What’s your angle Sacco?

We’re starting to see traditional Avalanche vs Oilers hockey.  Back and forth, back and forth, very little sustained pressure, numerous rush opportunities.

Edmonton gets good, sustained pressure with two shots, both pointers from 30 feet with no rebounds.

First five minutes is mostly Edmonton, but the Avs Rush is back.  Edmonton is the only team to sustain pressure for more than 20 seconds, and they have been able to get a handful of decent shots.   Other than a Duchene neutral zone pocket-picking leading to a solo Rush, the Avs have generated no shots.

Edmonton has moved to long passes across the neutral zone to work their way in.  They’re trying to tie in one shot rather than trust their O-zone play.  This could hit the home run they need, or it could backfire drastically.

Second five minutes feature a good 50-second press by the Avs with one nice keep-in by Foote that helped generate a shot.  Most of the play is happening in the neutral zone, and both teams have adapted to the Rush and are trying to slow the game back down… this strategy doesn’t make any sense for Edmonton.

The Oilers will have a good chance to tie it up.  PP

Andy is very smart and patient.  He makes a great save on a drive by Edmonton along the red line, left side.

12 seconds of 5 on 3 coming with Hannan Delay of Game penalty. Unlucky.

Avs kill (basically) back-to-back penalties.  Andy had 3 great saves on those PP’s, and 1 huge save on a rebound attempt that forced him to dive from left to right.  Avs added two  decent shots of their own short handed.

Third 5 minutes is all Edmonton for obvious reasons: two PP’s.  But the Avs maintain their 1-goal lead mainly due to Andy.  The Avs defense is starting to crack, but Craig has gone all game without being tested.   He’s not showing any signs of rust.

Colorado spends the first minute & a half of this stretch in Edmonton’s zone, but come up short on a slap shot from 15 feet dead center.

Wilson cleaning up a left sideline dribbler by shooting it back into the crease gets lucky. Deslauriers covers up and the puck slides through the five hole. Goal.  Certainly one Deslauriers wants back.

One minute left and the Avs have moved to the Trap.

Deslauriers gone at 50 seconds left.  And the Aves promptly take control.  Empty net goal by Yip from just right of center at the blue line.  Game Over.

Post-Game Analysis

Andy came up big in the 3^rd period to seal it, but it was 35ish minutes of dominating defense and another 15 of solid defense that is responsible for this shut out.  The Oilers only managed 20 shots on goal, and only four of those in the first period.  The Avs, to their credit, earned 42 shots. Well above their average, but many (especially late in the game) were not quality shots.  Wilson’s goal was a goaltender error on a dump-in for Crash the Net.  Based upon the way the Aves held this game in check they probably should have score 4-5 goals, but let’s not split hairs over a 3 goal shutout.

The second line had a great night as Duchene, Yip and Wolski all finished at +3 with 2 goals and three points between them.  Sacco’s decision to mix up the lines paid off, especially as the top line had several good pressures and were partly responsible for the defense’s strong showing since they spent so much time out of their own D-zone.

All-in-all a solid win against an inferior team, but two points they’ll take for the playoff race.  More importantly, it keeps them off of a losing streak.  In hockey losses will inevitably come on off-nights and bad bounces, but losing streaks kill playoff teams.  One more week before the Olympic Break. A strong finish of 5-8 points would have us sitting more or less comfortably for the season’s stretch run.

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Colorado honored former Av (& surprising sex symbol) Mike Ricci before Saturday's game

Wojtek Wolski broke out of his slump, Craig Anderson shut out the Oilers for the third time this season, and the Colorado Avalanche got a much-needed win Saturday night.

On a night that Colorado honored former mucker and fan-favorite Mike Ricci, the young Avalanche put in a workmanlike effort of their own.  The 2nd period resembled one long power play for Colorado even though neither team committed a penalty.  After dominating the first half of the game, Wolski finally put one home on a beautiful drop pass from Matt Duchene.  Matty’s feed to Wojtek was the result of an outstanding pass from Scott Hannan that sailed from the defensive zone over three Oilers and straight onto the stick of a streaking Duchene.

That goal proved to be the game-winner, even though Edmonton was very much in it until the final minutes.  The Avalanche’s 42 shots on goal did not include a pile of other missed opportunities that sailed wide of open nets.  The Oilers saw their fair share of scoring chances as the 1-0 tally carried well into the 3rd period.  It wasn’t until just inside the three-minute mark that the Avalanche had any kind of breathing room.  A hard slap-shot from rookie defenseman Ryan Wilson snuck through Edmonton goalie Jeff Deslauriers and trickled across the goal line.  Brandon Yip sealed the deal on an open-netter with just under a minute to play.

The 3-0 win kept the Avalanche on-pace behind NW Division leader Vancouver.  The Canucks grabbed two points of their own with a shootout victory over the sliding Bruins in Boston earlier in the day.

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Oilers at Avalanche 02/06/10 (8pmMST)

In a perfect world, the Colorado Avalanche would get to play the Edmonton Oilers after every tough loss.  Thursday’s 3-5 loss to the Nashville Predators cost the Avs precious points in a tight conference race, and handed the season series (primary playoff tiebreaker) to the Preds.

The Avalanche soundly failed to match the Predators’ raw intensity at Nashville.  Tonight the ‘Lanche head back to Pepsi Center for Mike Ricci Alumni Night.

With the playoff picture coming into focus day-by-day, these are just the kind of games the Avalanche must win.  The house should be relatively packed, and fans will be geared up for a big offensive performance from the young core of Avalanche forwards.  If the Avalanche can’t capitalize on that kind of built-in energy against a bad defensive team like Edmonton, then they don’t deserve to be in the Western Conference playoff field come April.

Colorado coach Joe Sacco stirred up the Avs’ line arrangement for tonight’s game after a five-game offensive slump.  T.J Galiardi, who has played with impressive speed and poise in recent weeks, will join Paul Stastny & Chris Stewart on the top line.  Wojtek Wolski will drop down and play with Brandon Yip and Matty Duchene, a combination that stands to look as good as it sounds.  The unpredictable Marek Svatos will likely play on a high-energy line that features Ryan O’Reilly & Cody McLeod.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, OILERS 3

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John-Michael Liles may be saying goodbye to Colorado (Bonus Coverage below)

After rattling off six wins and climbing to 3^rd in the West, the Avalanche are back in the pack at 6^th after a trio of tight losses.  The quick, confident team that was creating space between itself and the hoards of conference playoff hopefuls has once again devolved into a tangle of rookies.  But wait!  Don’t lose hope.

The Avs lost to the kryptonic (they wear green, and they rock our weaknesses) Minnesota Wild on Thursday 0-1, and the Colorado offense disappeared two more games over the next three days against the Stars & Rangers.  The Wild simply have a power over us, and the only good news is that we won’t play them again until either the playoffs (not likely for Minnie) or next season.

In the meantime, Vancouver is the hottest team in the league going into an epic road trip that will span the Olympic break.  The ‘Nucks capped a seven-game streak with a 5-3 win after falling behind 0-3 at Toronto.  Thirteen more road games between now and March 10^th will most certainly wear down the Canucks.

The question is this; will the Avalanche capitalize and re-take the division.

Each of the three games that started with the Wild game featured a litany of bad bounces, failures to finish plays, and little mistakes that turned into big plays for the opposition.  As unfortunately prone to such bad streaks as the Avalanche are, they are just as accustomed to righting the ice-ship suddenly and with force.

Colorado plays four games this week, with one every other day until Monday.  This run of day-on, day-off scheduling stretches back to Friday’s game at Dallas, and continues through next Friday when the Avalanche host the Phoenix Coyotes.  If the ‘Lanche can get in a rhythm over the next week and a half, they may be battling those very Coyotes for a return to 3^rd place in the West.

Tue, Feb 2^nd vs Columbus Blue Jackets (7:00 MST)

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 3, BLUE JACKETS 1

Thu, Feb 4^th @ Nashville Predators (6:00 MST)

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 2, PREDATORS 4

Sat, Feb 6^th vs Edmonton Oilers (8:00 MST)

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, OILERS 3

Mon, Feb 8^th vs St. Louis Blues (7:30 MST)

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 2, BLUES 0

WEEK 19 PREDICTION:  3-1

**Bonus Coverage**

Liles on the Ropes

John-Michael Liles has long been a tolerated defensive liability.

His ability to run the Avalanche’s top Power Play unit & his nose for quick offensive strikes has made him one of the better offensive defensemen in the league.  When Joe Sacco took over the team in the offseason, John-Michael’s days may have already been numbered.  Sacco is a fundamentals-first coach, and he was bound to have problems with Liles’ D-zone play.

Despite his wealth of talent, Liles comes closer to trade fodder every day.  Coach Sacco sat John-Michael as a healthy scratch Sunday versus the Rangers, and the fact that rookie Ryan Wilson is getting much of Liles’ playing time does not bode well for Colorado’s 2000 draft pick.  With the trade deadline upcoming, Liles may be remembered as the defensive talent that never panned out for the Avs.

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Who are these Avalanche? With Milan Hejduk sidelined, a young Avs squad must redefine itself.

The Colorado Avalanche put their skate down and hard last night.

With the visiting Edmonton Oilers pumped up to put some more hurt on the division-leading ‘Lanche, it was past time for the Avs to dominate a lesser hockey team in no uncertain terms.

This was no ordinary blow-out win at home against a basement-dwelling divisional opponent.  Edmonton had rocked the Avalanche in two of three meetings this year despite posting the worst record in the Western Conference.  Their speed, coupled with some lucky puck rolls ‘n bounces, had stymied the Avalanche and made up for the Oilers’ awful defense & goaltending.

On this night at Pepsi Center, however, it was all Avalanche.

A 6-0 shutout of a bad team was exactly what Colorado needed after grinding out a win against the East-best Devils on Saturday.  In fact, the Avalanche needed this victory every bit as much as they needed each of their four 3-2 wins over rival Calgary.  Edmonton was never in contention for the division this season, but they were one of a handful of bottom-tier teams that had manhandled a surprisingly good Avalanche team.  The Avalanche have made a habit of winning big games and losing little ones, and that trend had to end for Colorado to have a chance at winning the Northwest.

More than that, both Saturday day’s and Monday night’s victories were team wins in the keenest sense.  Every line produced scoring opportunities, played tight defense, and outworked their counterparts.

Versus Edmonton, nobody took the night off, and the most usual suspect for off-nights against lesser teams was one of the biggest contributors.  Wojtek Wolski got assists on goals two, three & four when the game was still a contested affair.  He worked his butt off on defense, and spent much of the third period resting on the bench, a job well done.

Meanwhile, the Avalanche’s defeat of Calgary last week appears to have killed that team’s spirit.

I wrote last Tuesday about how the Flames looked like they were panicking in a tie game late in the third period.  They had let this scrappy Avalanche team back into another contest after leading early at home, and they must have felt the icy hand of impending doom.  Colorado harbored no illusions that they were winning in anything but a shootout.

So, while the Avalanche went into save-ass mode to preserve the tie, Calgary launched an awe-inspiring offensive blitz to prevent the extra period and then the shootout.  Craig Anderson threw in some ninja flips (44 saves on 46 shots) and some flash-step flair, and Colorado proved that Calgary’s best wasn’t good enough for the win.  That shootout loss was more than a heartbreaker for the Flames; it was a moral-killing spirit decimator.

The Flames have lost each of their four games since then, the worst a 1-9 drubbing last night at the hands of San Jose in which the Sharks scored three goals in each period.  Calgary was a Cup contender a few weeks ago.  Now they look like a shell of the team that sported the best defense in the West in the first half of the season.

The Avalanche may lead the division, and they may have solved the Flames & Oilers, but they still have to hold off the charging Canucks.  Vancouver has dominated the Avalanche in three of four meetings this season, and the Avalanche may need to win both of the remaining home-and-away matchups against the ‘Nucks to grab the Northwest Division crown.

For now, the Avalanche’s front-loaded schedule continues to pay dividends, as Colorado prepares for another light workload this week versus Nashville & Dallas.

Fri, Jan 22^nd vs Nashville Predators (7:00 MST)

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 4, PREDATORS 2

Sun, Jan 24^th vs Dallas Stars (6:00 MST)

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, STARS 3

WEEK 17 PREDICTION:  2-0

**Bonus Coverage**

The Milan Effect

At times this season, the Colorado offense has been pushed, pulled & dragged willfully along by Milan Hejduk.  He has been alternately a catalyzer, a game-changer, and a big finisher.  Along with Captain Adam Foote, Hejduk has been the beating heart of this Avalanche hockey team.

So, after Milan went under for arthroscopic knee surgery, there had to have been be a tense moment in the Colorado locker room wherein this squad re-committed itself to team play as its means to victory.

The Baby Avs had been coddled along at times this season, sometimes disappearing altogether under the pressure of NHL play.  But the effect of Milan’s 2-4 week exit from the ice was a system-wide effort by the Avalanche to play stronger, smoother hockey; to play better in the absence of a leader.  Monday night’s win was reaffirming.  The Youth Movement that has defined the ’09-’10 Avalanche was in fully dominant display.

Time will tell whether the Avalanche can win consistently without Milan, but last night’s big win over Edmonton at home showed that they are one helluva force in this league… even without The Duke.

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Oilers at Avalanche 01/18/10 (7pmMST)

It used to be that the Oilers coming to town was a sure-fire win for the ‘Lanche.  In seasons past, I bought tickets to at least one Avs-Oilers contest in Denver based on the fact that I was assured the pleasure of a Colorado win.  Not so much these days.

Towards the end of last season, I had the non-privilege of watching the Oilers skate into town and decimate the West-worst Avalanche.  It wasn’t pretty, but whiskey made it watchable.

This season, the Avs lost 3-5 in their only hosting of Edmonton thus far.  The game wasn’t actually that close, and the Avalanche looked very much like the defensively inept team that posted a franchise-worst record last season.  Edmonton has really grown up from my mocking nickname “Colorado, Jr.”  They are the still ‘the other’ super-speedy team in the NW Division, but they are capable of matching the Avalanche stride-for-stride.

And so, I have to predict another home letdown game for the Avs.  I don’t want to do it.  We should beat the Oilers at our own game.  But the 2010 ‘Lanche is cursed to pay the price for loose defense by dropping winnable games like this one, even following a super-solid victory over the formerly East-best Devils on Saturday.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 2, OILERS 4

The Post Script

Veteran Milan Hejduk will be out 2-4 weeks after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery.

Milan already missed a half-dozen games this year because of the injury, and this should have him back to form for the stretch.  The Avalanche get so much production from their cadre of Lake Erie call-ups that they shouldn’t miss Hejduk too much on-ice.  However, missing a veteran from the locker room and bench could prove damaging for a team already lacking the consistent poise necessary to compete at a high level in every game.

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The patchwork Colorado Avalanche defense has held up well enough to keep the offense within striking distance.  Against a motivated Edmonton Oilers team on Sunday night, the Avs’ D finally cracked, allowing four power play goals in a 3-5 loss.  (This after operating the second-best penalty kill in the league going into that game.)

The cycle of injuries is partly to blame for that big defensive letdown in a game that should have been a relatively easy win.  (See Injury Update below.) The offense did its part, scoring three goals against a team playing with the lead from the early-going.  Really, the story of this team has often involved falling behind early only to come back and salvage at least one point from what would have been a total lost cause for the Avalanche of yesteryear.

And so this narrative has developed for Colorado; the Avalanche get hit in the mouth, they charge back as a brilliantly functional (and impressively deep) unit, and eventually hit a wall where willpower can carry no further.  This has happened in single games, and it has happened over multi-week spans involving entire road series.

The story goes on to tell of a team that plays its best hockey after losing multiple games in a row, and over the course of a long regular season defined by incredible parody through the top half of the league… well, that’s a recipe for success.

Wed, Nov 11^th @ Chicago Blackhawks (6:30 MST)

Last Friday’s game in Colorado saw the Avalanche fall behind early and come back to win in an epic shootout that featured eight shooters a side.  Colorado goaltender Craig Anderson returned from a night off to play poorly early, better late, and out-of-his-mind good through the final minutes of regulation and the shootout.

The Avalanche have managed to cull three points (a SO loss away & a SO win at home) out of two games against the Blackhawks.  After last night’s embarrassing loss to Edmonton at home, Colorado will give Chicago a run for its money again.  While a win is doubtful, I can see this game becoming another extra-inning thriller.  I’ll stick with the unexpected trend (a result of three early-season matchups between these two teams,) and bet on another shootout loss in Chicago.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 3, BLACKHAWKS 4 (SO)

Sat, Nov 14^th vs Vancouver Canucks (8:00 MST)

Our lasting meeting with the ‘Nucks was a brutal 0-3 loss at Vancouver, preceded by a 3-0 blowout win in Colorado the first week of the season.  Hockey is such a give-and-take game that the ebb and flow of a given matchup can bleed over multiple games, especially where divisional rivals are concerned.  While the consistent three-goals-to-none trend probably won’t hold up, I will pick the Avalanche to win and to score by the bucket load after logging consecutive losses for only the third time this season.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, CANUCKS 2

WEEK 7 PREDICTION:  1-0-1

**Bonus Coverage**

Peter Forsberg did take the ice for Team Sweden in the Karjala Cup, but did not score.  In fact, his whole team failed to score in an 0-7 shellacking at the hands of Finland (runners up to Russia in the tournament.)

His presence on several shifts did grant flight to a handful of formerly flightless penguins, raising hopes of an unprecedented winged penguin migration from Chile to the Frozen Continent as the Antarctic summer begins.  (See last week’s Avalanche Preview for details.)

Foppa is clearly not playing at an elite level yet, but has indicated that he is close to making a decision on whether to play professionally this season in either the NHL or the Russian Elite League the KHL.  Read about that and his hopes that he will make the Swedish National Team for the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver in this Peter Forsberg Interview.

Injury Update

A big bonus is coming.  The Avalanche have been playing with key defensive injuries throughout the season, and are looking at finally becoming whole over the next couple weeks.

D Tom Preissing has not suited up in a regular season game for Colorado yet, but he is expected to return from a rehab assignment with the Monsters of Lake Erie in the next couple games after having his knee scoped just prior to the opening of the regular season.

Preissing was the second half of an offseason trade that sent Ryan Smyth to Los Angeles and brought the hyper-effective D Kyle Quincey to the Avalanche.  Preissing is a solid defender (while Quincey often mixes it up in the offensive zone,) and his veteran presence in the midst of a relatively young defensive core may be the lynchpin in a top-five defense the rest of this season.

Unfortunately, John-Michael Liles reinjured his shoulder against Chicago and did not play in Sunday’s game against Edmonton.  Getting Liles healthy will be a determining factor for the Avalanche going forward.  He is a good, quick defender, but more importantly is the key to both Colorado Power Play units.

Despite missing Liles, Colorado will have Darcy Tucker’s return to look forward to in coming games.  Tucker has been working his way back into playing shape after a vicious concussion-inducing hit from behind by Carolina’s Tuomo Ruutu on 23 October.  Darcy is an excellent defensive forward, and his return should help shore up the Avalanche penalty kill.

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NHL 1st Star for October Craig Anderson

The first month of the season saw the Avalanche touring the far reaches of the NHL landscape.  Colorado traveled to every Canadian city except Ottawa (Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton, Calgary & Vancouver), winning each game except the last.  They played on both coasts and in three mid-western cities, and in fifteen games played only four at home.

To be sure, the Avalanche petered out at the end of that long haul, losing games @ San Jose and @ Vancouver to wrap up their October road trip.  And yet they retained the top spot in the Western Conference.  This was due in large part to the stellar play of goaltender (and NHL 1^st Star of the Month) Craig Anderson.

Never a number one goaltender until this season, Anderson led the league in Save Percentage and now owns the record for most October Starts by an Avalanche goaltender.  He faced an incredibly high volume of shots and played without a true backup (as Peter Budaj sat out with first an injury and then the flu.)  Hats off to Mr. Anderson.

Now the Avalanche have a schedule advantage and more points than the rest of the conference.  Welcome to the first week of the rest of the season.

Wed, Nov 4^th vs Phoenix Coyotes (7:00 MST)

Phoenix is not the pushover Coyotes of years past.  They are a constant scoring threat, and virtually unbeatable in Overtime & Shootouts due to their offensive capabilities.

However, this squad still has big question marks on defense, and their goaltending is sub-par.  The Avalanche prey on teams like this, because the Colorado game plan begins with solid defense and goes from there.  Look for the Avs to work the Coyotes’ thin defense down early and score in spades late.

The Coyotes will score too.  But back at home after another long road-trip, the Avalanche will push the action into the Phoenix end all night long, and the result will be another dubya for dem Avs.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 4, COYOTES 2

Fri, Nov 6^th @ Chicago Blackhawks (7:00 MST)

The Chicago Blackhawks will have the pleasure this week of traveling to Phoenix on Thursday (after the Coyotes’ frustrating loss to the Avalanche on Wednesday) and to Colorado on Friday.  They will have had five days off previous to those two games, having not played a game since a 3-2 victory vs Montreal on October 30^th.

Some people think that lots of rest is good for hockey teams.  Five days to relax, eat something greasy in downtown Chicago, and watch the Chicago Bears look really bad in a win over a team that is much, much worse (the Browns).

The reality is that hockey teams thrive on continuity, and a five-day absence from in-game competition is like hitting the reset button on the season.  The Blackhawks came out flat to begin October, losing two of three before winning a couple of games in bonus time.  Expect the Avalanche to jump on the ‘Hawks early and hang in late for the win.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 3, BLACKHAWKS 2

Sun, Nov 8^th @ Edmonton Oilers (8:00 MST)

The Avalanche beat the Oilers soundly in Edmonton a week ago, and this Sunday should be no different.  The Oilers have lost five of their last six games, scoring a mere three goals in those combined losses.  Their only win was a shoot-out victory over the lowly (!?!?!) Detroit Red Wings, a contest that saw 10 regulation goals scored on a pair of terrible goaltenders.

The Red Wings got aging number one goaltender Chris Osgood back after that game, but the Oilers are still stuck with aging number one goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin.  The Edmonton defense is simply not good enough to make up for Khabibulin’s lack of speed across the crease, and the Avalanche will take advantage of that fact.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 5, EDMONTON 2

WEEK 6 PREDICTION:  3-0

**BONUS NEWS**

I know this happens every year, but Peter Forsberg is playing hockey again.  After helping the Swedish National Team win Olympic Gold in 2006, Forsberg will again don the blue ‘n yellow for the Karjala Cup starting this Thursday.

Here’s hoping that Peter the Great gets himself into playing shape for next year’s Winter Games, because (as everybody knows) every time Peter Forsberg steps skate on competitive ice a penguin gets its wings.

Week 5 Preview

Week 4 Preview

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Colorado Avlanche rookie Matt Duchene

To begin this week’s column I’d like to offer a shout-out to the NHL scheduling crew, who saw fit to set the Avalanche up for failure…

October 1^st thru November 1^st, the New Look Avalanche kicking off the next era in Colorado pro hockey.  Fifteen games.  Eleven on the road (73%!)  Two against the Red Wings.  Two against the Sharks.  And a total of nine against ’08 playoff teams.

Well kiss our pucks, NHL schedulers.  The Avs are on the war path now, and it’s all thanks to you.

This week’s stretch of games will undoubtedly be the toughest yet, even as good as the club must be feeling about their chances.  Each of these games could be a loss, and one of them is almost guaranteed to be.

Tue, Oct 27^th @ Edmonton Oilers (7:30 MST)

There are two main reasons that this should be an easy win for the Colorado Avalanche:

1)  The Avalanche are the better team.

2)  Colorado will be looking to avenge the loss of Darcy Tucker to Injured Reserve after Carolina’s Tuomo Ruutu’s cheap shot resulted in a severe concussion.

Ruutu was given a game misconduct and will not take the ice against the Avalanche again until January 8^th, 2010.  As such (and this is really unfortunate for the Oilers) the Avalanche will be looking to play tough hockey for the next few games, as they did against Detroit on Saturday, to dispel any myths that such behavior is acceptable.

A pure speed game, as is typical of the Oilers-Avalanche matchup, favors Edmonton more because they are a team of burners with great puck-handling skills.  But the Avalanche have predicated their early-season success on rough ‘n tumble defense and forechecking that wears opponents out and leads to transition chances.

With the added motivation to look like a squad of bruisers, the Avalanche will slow this game down to a crawl and prey upon the Oilers in the neutral zone.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 4, OILERS 2

Wed, Oct 28^th @ Calgary Flames (7:30 MST)

Going into Detroit a week and a half ago there was not a chance that the Avalanche were going to come away with a victory.  Well… the same goes for this game.

The Flames are going to challenge the Avalanche for the division lead all season long.  They are a talented, deep team with great goaltending and veteran leadership throughout.  Calgary will bring the game to the Avalanche early, as the Red Wings did, and the only glimmer of hope is that the Avs will muster another huge final period.  This will once again depend on the young talent that seems singularly determined to turn Colorado into an offensive powerhouse.  Here’s why a win in our first trip to Calgary is even remotely possible…

Matt Duchene and Ryan O’Reilly, both 18-year-old rookies, have played extraordinarily well in an experimental call-up that could have easily led to two weeks up and the rest of the season down in the minors.  Instead, Matt & Ryan are giving the Avalanche an incredible boost and a chance to win every night.

Add to that success the continued and exciting development of young players like T.J. Galiardi, Wojtek Wolski & Paul Stastny, and you have a full-on youth movement in the Avalanche forecourt.  Yet the Flames will still be the toughest out of our young season.  My prediction will call for a loss, but bear this in mind…

Darcy Tucker went down, and 28-year-old Center Chris Durno is coming up.  Durno has been thriving for two straight seasons in Lake Erie as a Monster, and this is his big chance to prove himself worthy of the Burgundy & Blue.  If the Avs win, I’d bet money that this guy has something to do with it.  Keep an eye out for #45 but…

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 2, FLAMES 4

**GAME NOTE: Should the Avalanche lose by two goals, it will be the first time this season.  Should the Avalanche fail to lead at any point during this game, it will be the first time this season.  Losing games happens.  The only thing that matters is that trends like those noted above continue immediately afterward.

Fri, Oct 30^th @ San Jose Sharks (8:30 MST)

The Avalanche shocked the hockey world when they beat the Sharks in the opening game of the season on October 1^st.  A win at the Shark Tank four weeks later would be only slightly less shocking.

Then, the Avs won 5-2 on the strength of a Pepsi Center full of good vibes after the pre-game Joe Sakic Retirement Ceremony.  This time, the Avalanche will be slogging through the back-end of a brutal road trip that has them playing three games in four days with another one two days later.

Now, the Sharks have had trouble dealing with the Avalanche for a few years, and even last season’s palpable awfulness was punctuated by a thrilling win in San Jose.  We seem to match up well against this team, as their slower defensemen have trouble keeping up with our speedy forwards.  But the Sharks have been scoring a lot of goals lately, and even in the best-case-scenario of a three period scorefest I don’t see this game ending as a win.  We’ll call it an overtime ending and a point gained from a tough road loss.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 4, SAN JOSE 5 (OT)

Sun, Nov 1^st @ Vancouver Canucks (10:00 MST)

Some time this Saturday the Avalanche are going to get together as a team and huddle around a schedule that details the remainder of their season.

They’ll see that they have to play another tough road game at Vancouver the next night.  They’ll see two games in five days against the very dangerous Chicago Blackhawks.  And then, inexplicably, they’ll all begin to laugh.  Quietly at first, but then in great roars and guffaws.  Soon the whole team, from players to staff, will be laughing uproariously.

A passing Zamboni driver will ask a trainer standing on the outskirts of the crowd, “What’s all that aboot?”

To which the trainer will reply, “It’s only Halloween, and the worst part of our schedule is already behind us!  Pauly just offered to buy a round, and our two best forwards can’t even drink yet!”

The mirth and merriment will carry over to a very defensive-minded shootout win over the vulnerable Vancouver Canucks on November 1^st, and that will wrap up the Avalanche’s first month of hockey.

PREDICTION:  AVALANCHE 2, VANCOUVER 1 (SO)

WEEK 5 PREDICTION:  2-2

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