The Denver Nuggets have developed a disturbing trend of sitting out the NBA Draft.

What began with an ill-fated Draft Day decision the year after Carmelo Anthony was drafted in 2003 has become a legacy of poor draft-related decisions by the Denver Nuggets’ front office. (See Recent Draft History below)

You will remember the Nuggets’ pickup of Ty Lawson in 2009, trading with Minnesota on Draft Day to grab the young dynamo that would back up the aging Chauncey Billups at point guard in 2010 and beyond.  This move paid dividends back when the Nuggets were still a contender.  Back before Kenyon’s knee buckled.  Before coach Karl’s heart-wrenching trip to chemotherapy.

But the move to grab Lawson was indicative of a larger strategy employed by the Denver front office that has failed to pay off.  Buckle up and get ready for a sad ride through Nuggets Draft History over the last eight years…

2003-2005

Since the Nuggets drafted Carmelo Anthony in the 2003 NBA Draft, Denver has had only three players come out of the draft and onto the court in a Nuggets uniform… and that includes Melo.

One was 2009 Draft Pick Ty Lawson.  The other was the ill-fated Julius Hodge, who is better known for being shot in Denver than playing here.

Hodge came within 5 minutes of bleeding to death on I-76 North of Denver proper after a night of clubbing in the city.  The 15 minutes of fame that resulted from a drive-by highway shooting statistically outpaced his 14 games played with the Nuggets in Julius’ 2005-2006 rookie campaign.  After playing in four games the next season, Hodge was off to Milwaukee and then a series of lesser basketball leagues.

Denver drafted point guard Jameer Nelson, now of Orlando fame, in the 2004 Draft.  Nelson was an NBA All-Rookie Second Teamer and was an NBA All Star in 2009.  He and Dwight Howard teamed up to ferry the Magic to the Finals that same year.

The Nuggets, fronted by GM Kiki Vandeweghe, did not see Nelson as a talent worth keeping, though.  They traded Jameer on Draft Day ’04 for Orlando’s 1^st Round Pick in ’05.  Nelson went on to play starting point guard for the Magic every year after his rookie season.  The Nuggets went on to experiment with the likes of Allen Iverson as they desperately searched for a competent PG accompaniment to Carmelo.

And who did the Nuggets draft with the 2005 1^st Rounder they garnered for Nelson?

The forgettable Julius Hodge.

Denver’s other 2005 picks were Jarrett Jack and Axel Hervelle.  Jack went immediately to Portland for Linas Kleiza and Ricky Sanchez.  Hervelle was the first player from Belgium drafted to the NBA, but never played a single minute for the Nuggets.  Kleiza struggled in the NBA and ended up regressing to the Greek League after the 2009 season.

2006-2008

In 2006 Denver picked up Leon Powe with their only selection, then ship him off to Boston for a 2^nd Round Pick in the 2007 Draft.

The 2007 Draft saw Denver fritter away two 1^st Round Picks (and accomplished assist-man Andre Miller) in exchange for point guard Allen Iverson.  The Iverson Experiment was made necessary by the Nuggets’ decided lack of a PG that could challenge defenses independently and open up the court for Carmelo.

This is the perfect moment to think back on the Jameer Nelson Experiment that never was.  It does little good to wonder what the Nuggets could have accomplished with Jameer’s ability to disrupt defenses and create plays for his teammates, but still…

Instead of holding onto Nelson with that 2004 pick and building a young nucleus around Jameer, Carmelo & Nene (drafted by Denver in 2002), the Nuggets ended up trading for and wasting a 1^st Round Pick on Julius Hodge, trading away two 1^st Round Picks for Allen Iverson, and then settling for the tail end of Chauncey Billups’ career.

Really, Detroit bailed out the Nuggets’ front office by accepting Iverson’s ball-hogging and poor shooting in exchange for a great all-around player and perennial All Star Billups.  And yet it still wasn’t enough come playoff time.  Chauncey showed his age each of the last two seasons in the playoffs, looking weary and playing well off his A-Game when it mattered most.

As a result of the Iverson trade and other transactions the Nuggets did not make any draft picks in 2007 or 2008.

2009-2010

That all brings us full circle; back to the drafting of another point guard, Ty Lawson, in the 2009 Draft.  The Nuggets’ front office, championed by GM Mark Warkentein since 2006, went out on a limb and grabbed Lawson fresh off his NCAA Championship at North Carolina.

This was, by most accounts, a good draft pick.  But it all ties back to that first mistake; letting Nelson go to Orlando for future considerations.  It would seem that Denver’s draftnicks have been trying to mend that mistake for seven long years through six stacked NBA Drafts only to come up with an undersized point guard who will need to have a revelation of a 2010-2011 sophomore season just to make up for the legacy of failed point guard experiments that precedes him.  (Earl Boykins anyone?)

That is, of course, if Lawson even plays for the Nuggets next season.  Word on the street has Ty on the trading block.  Perhaps for a big man to back up the aging/injury riddled/underwhelming Denver frontcourt.  Perhaps for a draft pick to post up for future Nuggets’ teams.

Or maybe the Nuggets will trash Lawson and a couple of future draft picks for another short-term solution to the franchise’s biggest problems.

Denver Nuggets Draft History 2003-2010

(Round-Pick #, Player Name, College/Country, NBA Teams Played For)

2003 NBA Draft, June 26

1-3 Carmelo Anthony* (Syracuse) DEN

2-46 Sani Becirovic (Slovenia)

2004 NBA Draft, June 24

1-20 Jameer Nelson (St. Joseph’s) ORL

(Traded to Orlando for 2005 1^st Round Pick)

2005 NBA Draft, June 28

1-20 Julius Hodge* (North Carolina State) DENx2, MIL

(Pick from Washington via Orlando)

1-22 Jarrett Jack  (Georgia Tech) PORx3, IND, TOR

(Traded to Portland for Linas Kleiza & Ricky Sanchez)

2-52 Axel Hervelle (Belgium) DEN, MIL

2006 NBA Draft, June 28

2-49 Leon Powe (California) BOSx2, CLE

(Traded to Boston for 2007 2^nd Round Pick)

2007 NBA Draft

No Picks

2008 NBA Draft

No Picks

2009 NBA Draft

1-18 Ty Lawson (North Carolina) DEN

(Acquired from Minnesota for 2010 1^st Round Pick)

2010 NBA Draft

No Picks

Denver Nuggets GM’s 2001-Present

Kiki Vandeweghe 2001-2006

Mark Warkentein 2006-Present

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Denver would end the 1^st Quarter down 10, but the opening stretch was not played so unevenly.  The Nuggets failed to take advantage of their FT attempts, missing five.  Utah again shot above-average from range.  This ungodly trend has to end sometime… right?

The three-point disparity did bleed into the 2^nd Quarter.  At one point the Jazz were 3 of 5 to the Nuggets’ 0-3.  Denver has been reluctant to shoot from deep all series.  (Really, they look uncomfortable in their traditional offense… a testament to Utah’s regimented defense.)  The Nugs have been robbed of a big part of their explosive potential as a result.

Carmelo finally goes off after an awkward start to the game.  Beginning with his favorite lean-away mid-range jumper.  Anthony is very good at warming up with his best shots, working towards efficiency in the latter parts of the game.  This is a good sign.

Another good sign late in the half…

Nuggets down 15, Carmelo Anthony gets called for the worst offensive foul in Denver playoff history.

Adrian Danley *!finally!* goes ape-kaka on the referees and draws a technical foul.  This long-overdue eruption at sub-par postseason officiating almost immediately sparks a Nuggets run.  Denver brings the game back within a single possession with a 13-0 outburst.

Carmelo misses a wide-open three on Denver’s final possession of the half, otherwise the Nuggets would have finished up one at the buzzer.

Denver comes out in the second half on a mission.

The offense starts flowing with good intensity.  Aside from JR Smith & Chauncey Billups, the Nuggets get good contributions across the lineup and through the bench.

Too bad the defense fades before the offense can establish a big lead.  The result is a quick 5-point advantage for the Nuggets that evaporates into a 67-67 tie five minutes into the 3^rd.  Denver stays sharp, though, and manages to stay within three of the Jazz through the end of the quarter.

The Nuggets work hard on both ends in the 4^th, rarely giving up easy points.

In fact, without unfavorable-to-incompetent refereeing, Denver would have likely kept the game at a possession pace.  Unfortunately, contact calls that went to Utah, only occasionally went to the Nuggets.  Denver is repeatedly whistled for highly embellished fouls in the offensive zone.  More than half of possessions for both teams are paused or ended with a whistle, and the Nuggets can’t maintain any momentum.

So, with 4:24 left, Denver trails by eleven.

Denver ends up grabbing a slew of technical fouls in this game, especially late.  All of the skewed officiating over the course of the series finally gets firmly under their skin, and the Nuggets come unglued.  Frustrated by both phantom offensive fouls and touchy whistles in the defensive paint, the team simply becomes unfocused.

With 3:21 left in the 4^th, Denver takes its first free throw of the quarter… after Utah had just finished taking its 13^th & 14^th of the final frame.  Allow the magnitude of this incredible foul-calling disparity to settle in for a moment…

Game on the line, the Nuggets work for open threes to try to close the gap.

But the team is clearly flustered in a very loud road arena with the officiating crew tilting to Utah.  Nothing is dropping, every loose ball is bouncing to Utah, and the Nuggets start to look cooked.

By the time Chauncey Billups takes a turnover into the paint around the one-minute mark, the game is already over.  The routine layup by Big Shot Billups goes strong off the glass for a last wasted opportunity.  Chauncey had his best game of the series, scoring 30 points, but it wasn’t enough.

Denver lost the points race on the lukewarm offensive outing by Carmelo (6-22 for 20 points), and the complete absence of JR Smith off the bench.  JR is usually a game-breaker for the Nuggets, but went 0-3 from beyond the arc to go with a single made 2-point field goal and 1 of 2 free throw shooting.

Even Joey Graham’s surprise 21-point performance wasn’t enough.

Graham matched up very well against the Jazz, but didn’t see any court time until the 6^th game.  Along with a failure to properly utilize Johan Petro throughout the series, Denver’s coaching staff mucked up a solid hand versus a scrappy but injury-depleted Utah squad.  The blame for that can be placed squarely on the shoulders of head coach Adrian Dantley, who was overmatched all series in the presence of Jerry Sloan’s masterful in-game coaching.

Denver went out with a whimper in 2010, and the team will have a long offseason to consider what changes need to be made to improve in 2011.

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Down three games to one in the opening round of the 2010 NBA Playoffs, Denver needed a big victory on Wednesday night.  More than that, they needed a big outing from absent star Chauncey Billups.  The Nuggets got both in Game 5 at Pepsi Center, part of their 116-102 win.

Carmelo Anthony & Chauncey Billups both came up big in this elimination game.

Where Melo had carried the team through one win and three tough losses, Billups stepped in and shouldered his share of the load at long last.  Chauncey was good for 21 points and 4 assists.  Carmelo added 26, well below his 34.5 point/game playoff average.

But the Nuggets don’t need Carmelo Anthony to score 35 points a game to win.  They need a complete team effort, and Denver finally got that.

The whole Denver bench contributed to this victory, scoring 37 points to 16 from the Utah bench… all by Jazz PF Paul Millsap.  JR Smith dropped 17 playing starter minutes (31), and Ty Lawson had another well-rounded game with 2 board, 3 dimes and a pair of steals to go with his 6 points.

Even after starting Center Nene Hilario went down with a tweaked knee in the 2^nd Quarter, the Nuggets played strong team basketball to muscle out a series of leads.  After giving up 6 & 8 point advantages, Denver dropped the hammer with metered scoring and responsible defense in the latter part of the 4^th Quarter.

Nene has underperformed along with Chauncey all series, and may not be the Nuggets’ best option at Center.

In fact, Nene has been a liability on both ends of the court, and both Johan Petro & Chris Andersen were more effective as replacements.

Petro & Andersen combined for 13 rebounds, and Birdman notched 10 points despite a nagging hand injury.  Both were more effective defensively, getting out on big Carlos Boozer’s deadly jumper from the top of the key.  Carlos has killed the Nuggets with that shot all series, but longer arms coming out of the paint threw off Boozers’ rhythm in the second half.

Nene’s 5.8 rebound/game average was inflated by an 11-board performance in Game 2, but the Nuggets’ only other win in the series came in Game 1 when he played just 14 minutes.  (Nene averages 34/game.)  It could be that the 1-2 punch of the taller, longer Chris-Johan combo may be a better match on the glass against the Jazz.

Denver has a rough road ahead of them.  They are still just one loss away from elimination.

The Nuggets will need to do on Friday night what they have only rarely done in the last decade; win a game in Utah.

The team showed glimpses of its old dominant self in Game 5, and will need to be firing on all cylinders to overcome the imposing Jazz at EnergySolutions Arena in Game 6.  Despite all of their trials and tribulations through the last few months, the Nuggets are just one big W away from coming home for a decisive Game 7 on Sunday morning.

Game 6: Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz

Friday, April 30^th on ESPN & Altitude

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The Denver Nuggets dropped a crucial Game 4 in Utah on Sunday night, but it was the way they lost that has this former contender looking dead in the water.

Denver’s bigs couldn’t make layups, their bench had no spark, and their defense made lazy rotations versus the Jazz for the third straight game.  Not coincidentally, after going up 1-0 to start this opening round playoff series, the Nuggets have lost the last 3 games.

Worse, there is no bright horizon in site for Denver, as the heart of their precipitous decline from contender to first-round flop is a near complete lack of leadership.

George Karl spent the last month of the regular season undergoing chemotherapy treatment, and has been absent throughout the playoffs in recovery.  His replacement, assistant coach Adrian Dantley, has been nothing more than a placeholder in that time.  Dantley has failed to light a fire underneath these Nuggets, watching as they make serial mistakes on defense and bog down into one-dimensional stagnation on offense.

And where George was a master of in-game adjustments, Dantley is anything but.

The strength of Denver’s bench was utilized to perfection in the first 3/4 of the season by Karl, whose career has been predicated on his understanding of on-court chemistry & matchups.  Now Denver’s B-team is so ineffective that the series may have been over before it began.  Chris Andersen has been a defensive liability and absent on the offensive boards.  Ty Lawson has not come in as a change of pace alongside Chauncey Billups, where he took pressure off the aging All-Star guard all season.  Instead, Lawson has only come in when Billups racks up too many fouls.  What a waste of raw talent.

Carmelo Anthony has been the one bright spot offensively, and JR Smith has played beyond his NBA experience defensively.

The rest of the team, even Chauncey Billups, has turned in a sub-par postseason performance.

And so, with Game 5 in Denver on Wednesday night, the Nuggets will be up against a wall and in need of 3 consecutive wins to move on.  If this team plays up to its potential, starting inside with increased effort and moving outside with improved shooting, Denver stands a very real chance of coming all the way back.  They are no doubt the better team when playing at peak efficiency, but the Nuggets have been so careless, lazy & without leadership that the turnaround would have to be nothing short of monumental.

Game 5: Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets

Wednesday, April 28^th on TNT & Altitude

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All hands on deck!  After a poor game that the Jazz won by three, the Nuggets put up one their worst performances of year and the postseason is in jeopardy.  This is now a must win game on the road.  If the Nuggets can’t find it tonight, they probably won’t find it.  And Energy Solutions Arena is a tough place for any team save the Jazz to play.

I won’t lie; it’s tough to root for the Nuggets after the lackluster performance on Friday night.  The team played just about the laziest game I’ve ever seen a contender play and it makes me wonder if they ever were truly a contender.  The only cure is a high-energy, high-effort win on the road.

1^st Quarter

5:46 Nuggets get the early lead on the shooting of Carmelo Anthony, but so far the game has looked much like the previous three strategically.  The Jazz are running their dribble drives and pick and rolls.  The Nuggets are working the isolations and looking for mistakes in the Jazz defense under the hoop.

2:28 The Jazz have clawed back in by dominating down low for a solid 3 minutes.  Paul Millsap has come into the game and Nene can’t deal with him.  Nene has got to step up both defensively and offensively against Millsap, because if things continue as they are the Nuggets are looking at a long game and short season.

End Quarter Jazz 31-25

The Nuggets’ offense left the building for a few minutes and the Jazz pulled away.  It happens.   A missed layup by Nene here and missed wide open 3 Pointer by Chauncey Billups there and you only score 4 points in the final 4 minutes of a quarter.

The Jazz are simply getting too close to the basket.  They’re shooting 60% and it’s because the vast majority of shots they’re taking are from within the restricted area.  The Nuggets have got to find a way to keep the ball on the perimeter.

2^nd Quarter

7:57 Millsap has left the floor and the Nuggets are chipping away at the lead (was at its highest at 8, now down to 5).   Looking at the stats, the Nuggets’ shooting is a little low (42%).  That needs to come up.

5:04 The Nuggets are battling.  At times today, they’ve looked like they have no idea what to do and at others are showing the toughness that got them here.  J.R. Smith has been the best defender so far with a pair of steals and 2 rebounds.

3:21 The Nuggets have abandoned the paint and their post players are taking stupid jump shots.  The Nuggets’ shooting is down to 39%.  Worse, look at the shooting from the Nuggets bigs:

Kenyon Martin 1-7

Nene 1-2

Chris Anderson 1-3

Martin has been exceptionally bad.  He can’t make layups or jump shots.

2:16 Martin just got his third foul and will have to sit on the bench.  Considering the way he’s played, good riddance.

End Half Jazz 54-45

The shot selection for the Nuggets is the culprit tonight (37% FG, 1-7 3 Pt).  Even Anthony’s numbers have slumped (7-15 FG, although he has picked up 3 of his own rebounds).  Only Aaron Afflalo is making more than 50% of his shots (3-5 FG).  Adrian Dantley needs to be yelling at his low percentage shooter (Kenyon & Anderson specifically) and telling them they’re not allowed to take any low percentage shots.

On the other end, the Jazz shooters are having an off night, but they are still shooting 56% because the bigs are finding easy paths to the basket.

3^rd Quarter

7:41 Even when the Jazz try to help the Nuggets out, Denver gives the ball right back.  On a bad pass by Afflalo, Wesley Matthews takes the ball the other way and misses a dunk.  I’m feeling like this could be the Nuggets’ time, and Melo steps out of bounds on the drive.  The Nuggets look dead in the water down by 15.

3:10  Denver has taken a game they were in only down by 9, and with lazy play (especially on the defensive side) have turned it into an asskicking.  There is only one way to describe the Nuggets’ second half performance; shameful.  This team has gone from being a contender to win a championship and in one month turned into a team that may need to be blown up.

End Quarter Jazz 86-68

The Nuggets have given themselves a tall order to keep their season going.  They pretty much have to play perfect basketball in order to win this game and I don’t need to remind you that this game is the playoffs.  I think Basketball season may be over.

4^th Quarter

9:40  Well the good news is the Jazz have started launching stupid shots.  If this continues and the Nuggets have someone get hot the game might not be over.  I’m not holding my breath.

6:04 The Nuggets closed the lead to 11 from 20 in half the quarter.  A few more minutes like this and I might be wrong about the Nuggets season.

2:36 The Jazz make their clutch shots and the Nuggets need 2 and a half minutes of absolutely perfect basketball to win.

0:54 After closing it to 7, Melo misses a 14 footer and the Jazz are into foul shots.

End Game

The Nuggets could have won this game (and this series) with consistent effort.  When they played hard at both ends they were clearly the beater team.  But Utah simply out worked them.   Melo was the only one who played hard all the way through (et to Billups?) and he missed time with foul trouble again.

And now the Nuggets must win 3 in a row with the middle one on the road.   That’s probably out of the question for this team.  Next time I’m scheduled to write for the Nuggets will be game 7…  so I don’t expect to write about them again this season.

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The Denver Nuggets slipped into the 4^th seed in the NBA Playoffs with a Utah Jazz loss on Wednesday night.  The same Suns that brutally knocked Denver out of contention for the 3^rd seed on Tuesday night roughed up the Jazz by a similar margin in Salt Lake City.

Now the Nuggets will enjoy home-court advantage for at least this first round, and their middle seeding could easily lead to a 2^nd Round matchup with the LA Lakers.

Denver dominated the season series versus Utah.

In fact, that’s the only reason the Nuggets have home-court in the 1^st Round.  Both teams finished with a 53-29 regular season record.  However, Denver’s key January win in Utah gave them the tiebreaker for the Northwest Division title and the 4^th-best record in the Western Conference.

Utah escaped with a narrow victory in the teams’ final regular season matchup, as Denver played without Carmelo Anthony & Chauncey Billups.

Here’s how the season series played out between the Jazz & Nuggets

Wednesday, October 8^th @ Denver

Denver Wins 114-105

Saturday, January 2^nd @ Utah

Denver Wins 105-95

Sunday, January 17^th @ Denver

Denver Wins 119-112

Saturday, February 6^th @ Utah

Utah Wins 116-106

————————————-

As dominant as the Nuggets were throughout the regular season series, the Jazz improved mightily in the final month of the season.  Carlos Boozer came on strong after struggling for Utah since late last season, and the Jazz bench began contributing in a real way for the first time in years.

The Nuggets, meanwhile, slid into their 4^th seed with home & away losses to the Spurs & Sun respectively to close out their regular season schedule.  Denver did blow out the Memphis Grizzlies between those two tough losses.  But even after a 4-game winning streak that included a road win in Oklahoma City and a home win versus the Kobe-less LA Lakers, Denver has looked vulnerable going into the playoffs.

Nuggets Keys to the Series

Kenyon Martin returned to the team after undergoing rich blood platelet treatment on his injured knee.  K-Mart opted not to have season-ending knee surgery, and will be the key to Denver’s NBA Title hopes.  Kenyon was averaging over 9 rebounds per game before his injury, and his defensive presence stifled opponents’ low-post threats on most nights.

Martin is also the key to Denver Center Nene Hilario’s game, as Kenyon brings a certain snarl to the paint that Nene lacks.  Nene has great talent for a big man, and his speedy spinning post move is unstoppable without a helper defender rotating in.  The combination of Nene, Martin & Carmelo Anthony down low opens up the Nuggets’ entire offense as it contracts defenses down towards the paint.

If Denver can find its mid-season groove in this series, it will start down low.

However, the Nuggets will need its bench to contribute as heavily as they did during the season series versus the Jazz.  Rookie reserve Point Guard Ty Lawson was especially dangerous in regular season Games 2 & 4, scoring 23 & 25 points in those games.  Lawson is one of the fastest guards in the league, and could be a game-changer against Utah.

Finally, JR Smith will need to be contributing his athletic defense and timely 3’s for Denver to move forward.  Smith is a rare talent, but has had trouble with consistency and discipline.  JR was huge, though, in last year’s run to the Western Conference Finals.  Smith outshone Nuggets star Carmelo Anthony in several of those playoff games.

Nuggets vs Jazz Series Notes

Nuggets head coach George Karl will miss this 1^st Round series after undergoing chemotherapy for neck & throat cancer.  His recovery time will determine whether he is capable of making a return to the Denver bench this postseason.

Karl will have a presence on the Denver bench in the form of his son Coby.

The younger Karl was signed by the Nuggets from his D-League team as Denver sought to shore up the depths of its bench.  Coby Karl will not be getting a lot of time, if any, in the playoffs, but he is tall for a Shooting Guard and may be useful as a defensive asset and rebound specialist.

Former University of Wisconsin standout Brian Butch has joined the team for the same reason.

Nuggets vs Jazz 1^st Round Playoff Series Schedule

Game One: Saturday, April 17^th

Utah @ Denver 8:30pm MST

Game Two: Monday, April 19^th

Utah @ Denver 8:30pm MST

Game Three: Friday, April 23^rd

Denver @ Utah 8:30pm MST

Game Four: Sunday, April 25^th

Denver @ Utah 7:30pm MST

Game Five: Wednesday, April 28^th

Utah @ Denver if necessary

Game Six: Friday, April 30^th

Denver @ Utah if necessary

Game Seven: Sunday, May 2^nd

Utah @ Denver if necessary

My Prediction: Nuggets in Five Games

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Game Preview & Playoff Race Update

Well one week in Milwaukee and everything seems to have settled in the NBA… but not quite settled.

Realistically the Nuggets probably lost their shot at the number two seed with the home loss against San Antonio since the Mavericks just need one win or one Nuggets loss to clench.  Also, since Phoenix visits Utah on Wednesday, one of them is out if the Nuggets win tonight.  Now the game on Tuesday in Phoenix will be huge one way or another, but the importance can be lessened with a win tonight.

Now let me make this perfectly clear, if the Nuggets are to do anything in the playoffs they must beat Utah.  That is imperative.  Utah is a team that will crush the Nuggets in the first round if game one is in Utah, and Phoenix stands a good chance of beating the Nuggets at home or on the road.  If Phoenix beats the Nuggets for the third spot, but the Nuggets host Utah, Denver probably rolls through the first round.

Granted, they’d have to play LA in the second round, but there are benefits to playing the Lakers earlier.  (see: Chauncey Billups – legs)   If the Nuggets head to Phoenix in the Conference Final, they will deal with that then.  I just don’t see them anywhere near the Final if they visit Utah or have to play Phoenix and LA in succession.

1^st Quarter

8:58 Gotta hand it to Memphis… I always like their game plans.  Drive the lane, drive the lane, drive the lane.

Sure, such a strategy would never work against San Antonio (who they’ll have to beat at some future point to win their division), but it sure generates points and fouls against defense that like to spread out.   The Nuggets are doing the same on offense, but more because Memphis looks disorganized and apathetic.  Thus, Chauncey Billups is seeing a lot of open lanes.

6:40 So Kenyon Martin makes a nice block and sends the ball into the Memphis bench area.  As the fan behind the Grizzlies bench passes the ball back to Kenyon, Memphis coach Lionel Hollins stands up and bats the ball away.  Billups complains and is dealt a technical.  Tell me how that makes any kind of sense.

2:57 The Grizzlies have taken the lead by a point.  They are taking absolutely ridiculous shots and getting them to fall.  The Nuggets are slacking on the boards.

End Quarter Nuggets 32-31

The Grizzlies are getting a considerable amount of bad shots to fall along with shots after Nugget fouls.

Take away those, and the Nuggets seem to have a stranglehold on this game.  Nene and Carmelo Anthony are dominating against some pretty good bigs in Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay.   Also, as I look down the box score I notice 3 Grizzlies starters with 2 Personal Fouls and their backup center Hamed Haddadi with 3.

2^nd Quarter

8:07 Johan Petro hit the floor hard driving for a loose ball in the offensive end, and stays down.  After the commercial he’s seen sitting on the bench in less pain.  Good news.  Losing Petro at this point in the season would leave the Nuggets a little thin in the front court.

4:47 The Nuggets are doing what they should do, forcing the issue offensively and taking their game to the line.  Most importantly, they’re making their foul shots (15-19 FT).  If this keeps up (combined 9 PF among 4 starters), the Grizzlies are going to be forced to play with their bench in the fourth quarter.

On the other end, some recklessness with the basketball leads to 2 Carmelo Anthony fast breaks.  The Nuggets are showing signs of pulling away.

End Quarter Nuggets 63-57

The following is a list of the Grizzlies who project to be in foul trouble that affects their playing time:

Rudy Gay-3 PF

Zach Randolph-3 PF

Hasheem Thabeet-3 PF

Hamed Haddadi-3 PF

And here’s a list of the Nuggets:

Aaron Afflalo-3 PF

I wouldn’t even say the Nuggets are getting away with being on the good side of bad officiating.  Memphis is simply slashing at the basketball recklessly while the Nuggets drive to the basket.  The Nuggets are probably a little bit too much for Memphis anyway, but asking bench players to come in and produce against starters is a tall order.

I will say this about the Grizzlies: Mike Conley is a good basketball player.  He’s the only player on Memphis who’s been consistently effective.  I think if Memphis ever gets him a full team, or if he goes to a team just a little better than Memphis is right now, he could be a top-five point guard in the league.

3^rd Quarter

8:13 Very quickly in the quarter, Thabeet commits his fourth foul.  out goes Hasheem, in comes Haddadi.  Then Haddadi commits his fourth, out goes Haddadi, in comes Darrell Arthur.  The wheels are about to come off for Memphis.

4:21 The Nuggets are now systematically removing every viable threat from the game.

Gay has committed his fourth foul and will take a seat on the bench.  Melo drew the foul on an isolation drive from the top of the arch.  Melo missed a FT but the Nuggets are still pouring on the points at the line (25-30 FT).

1:28 I hate to talk about nothing except the foul situation, but this is what the game has come down to.   Haddadi just committed his fifth foul and now the Grizzlies are running out of options in the post.

1:13 Randolph apparently knows what I know and it makes him angry.  He’s whistled for his fourth foul hauling in a rebound and curses out the referee.  Zach Randolph Ejected

End Period Nuggets 93-74

The Nuggets are taking apart the Grizzlies like an expert chess player takes out an inferior player.

Every move presents a new complication that the later isn’t equipped to deal with.  Inevitably, mistakes are made which lead to more and greater mistakes.   The Nuggets look to set themselves up with an easy end game.

4^th Quarter

12:00 Petro is back in the game.  Thank God.

7:44 J.R. Smith and Aarron Afflalo are on fire from the 3 point line and Johan Petro is blocking shots and dominating the boards.  This game looks to be over.

0:00 The game ends without incident.

End Game Nuggets 132-101

In fairness, Memphis probably did more to themselves than Denver did, but to the Nuggets’ credit they played patiently and got out of the way while Memphis imploded.

Make no mistake about it; Denver won this game at the foul line (32-39).

Melo and Nene dominated the post, Afflalo recorded his first double-double (22 Points, 13 boards), and J.R. Smith dropped the hammer (6-14 3PT) with regularity.  But this game came down to crushing your opponents at the charity stripe.  You cannot win when you give your opponent 39 FT’s and the make 32.

This was just what the doctor ordered for the Nuggets’ hopes to win the Northwest Division.  Three starters played less than 29:00 minutes (Nene, Billups, Martin), so everyone should have plenty of energy to run with the Suns tomorrow.   A win Tuesday night in Phoenix clenches the 3 seed.

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The Nuggets’ 98-94 edging of the driven Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday displayed the offensive dynamism and (occasional) sharp defensive rotation that Denver has been lacking for most the last two weeks.

After losing five of six games in ten days, the Nuggets had fallen back into the pack of teams chasing the #2 seed in the Western Conference.  They got brutalized in Dallas, losing the season series versus the Mavericks after sweeping them out of the playoffs in ’09.  New York, Orlando & Boston rounded out four ugly road losses in a five-game swing.

Then Denver came home, and as has happened so often in the last two seasons, rediscovered their mojo with some Pepsi Center magic.

This time it came against the Portland Trailblazers.  A contentious first half blew up into a 109-92 victory by a Nuggets team that played looser on offense and tighter on defense over the final 15 minutes.  Denver followed with a similar late-game thumping of the LA Clippers, fighting back from a 21-point first half deficit for an 8-point win.

Now a hard-fought win in Oklahoma City where JR Smith had a defensive breakout and the forgotten Arron Afflalo had his best game in a solid month.  Afflalo was an incredible +17 in a 4-point win.  JR nabbed 4 steals and 2 blocks.

Kevin Durant was incredible a night after getting egregiously fouled on what would have been a game-winning 3-point OT winner at Utah… and then standing dumfounded as time expired with no foul call.  (See: Carmelo Anthony five years ago)

And so Denver is back in a 3-way tie for the 2-seed with Dallas on top and Phoenix below.  (Utah dropped one in Houston to descend to the middle of the playoff field.)

The Nuggets will finish their final week at home versus the Lakers, Spurs & Grizzlies before traveling to Phoenix to take on the Suns.  Depending on how Dallas handles their easier schedule, the Nuggets may be in a one-on-one battle with the Suns right up to their regular season finale.

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This date with the Blazers proved to be a shot of adrenaline for the Nuggets’ stars, who have failed to rise to the late-season occasion as the playoffs draw near.  All you Denver fans owe Portland a big, sweaty thank you.  Here’s why…

Sometimes all it takes is a favorable matchup within the friendly confines of a home arena to cure what ails.  For the Denver Nuggets, that was especially true on Thursday night.  A 109-92 overpowering of the Portland Trailblazers was just what the doctor ordered.

This game is the story of how the Nuggets’ Big Three got their groove back one by one.

The Denver starters match up in a peculiar way against the defensive-minded Blazers’ top five, creating an interplay of equal but opposite forces in the early going of games.

This is an interesting note, because each team’s starting lineup is markedly different in both skill sets & physical attributes.  These teams roughly fill each other’s defensive gaps.  That favored Portland initially as the Nuggets again struggled to find an offensive rhythm.  The Blazers are all about their method, and it was all Denver could do in the 1^st Quarter to keep pace.

A fun fact: Portland sports three ex-Nuggets starters, all formerly high-priced acquisitions for Denver.  The Blazers start Marcus Camby at Center & Andre Miller at Point Guard, plus Juwan Howard at Power Forward.  By the end of the game, it was apparent that the Nuggets have upgraded at each of those positions.

Nene Hilario in particular exploited his counterpart’s softness.

Nene exploded for 22 points against Camby (and often a second defender) to break out of his offensive slump.  Each of the Nuggets guards and forwards, especially Carmelo Anthony, made sure to force the ball into Nene in the post early and often.

Nene responded by being the first Denver standout to rediscover his happy place.  Turns out it lies somewhere between a spinning, driving dunk and a 10-foot jumper.  Who knew?

As great as it was to see Nene return to form, the real advantage for Denver in the first half was its reinvigorated bench.

The Nuggets’ second team matches up very well against the slow, workmanlike Portland backups.  Remember, the Blazers have lost half their lineup to injury at different stages of the season, and are still battling to find continuity throughout as a result.

Meanwhile, Denver just got the speedy PG Ty Lawson back from a shoulder strain.  Lawson’s aggressive play and improving defense make him a big problem for any team, especially a long, tall team like Portland.  Ty is simply too quick and his ball movement too far away from the Blazers’ defensive comfort zone.

The result is not always points for Lawson, but he is a constant disruption to any balanced D.  Welcome back Tywon!

The first half closed out as you would expect in a game between division rivals: neck & neck.  As has been the case for several seasons between these teams, the Nuggets came brought outstanding talent to the contest, and the Blazers matched it with sure-handed, even effort across its lineup.

Halftime score: Nuggets 56-55

Denver typically comes out soft defensively in the second half, and it’s a good thing too.

The Blazers exploited the sleepy Denver D for a quick lead change out of the gates.  At 9:45 of the 3rd Quarter Portland took a 4-point lead on an uncontested LaMarcus Aldridge jumper from 7 feet.

Carmelo & Crew decided that was enough.

The Nuggets, as if waking from an unpleasant dream, snapped into ball-movement mode on their next possession.  The result was a Nene dish to Aaron Afflalo along the baseline.  Double A drained a 3 to cut the deficit to one.

That would be the last time the Blazers led.

Nene stole a bad pass by Portland’s Nicolas Batum, flipped the ball to Chauncey Billups, and ran to the basket on the break.  Billups’ pass met him there for a big-time Nene dunk.

Right here Portland could have taken control back with a strong offensive play.  Unfortunately for the Blazers, these Nuggets were doing what they had failed to do in over a week: siphon energy from their opponent with pestering defense and unstoppable, demoralizing offense.

Nene swatted a block for a turnover, Carmelo in isolation on the right side, driving layup for two.  The Pepsi Center erupts, Portland Timeout.

When the Nuggets play like this they are the sleeping giant awakened, and it is a fine site to behold.

Carmelo is the next Nugget to find his mojo, and it starts with that driving layup.

To be fair, Carmelo has been the one bright spot through an awful 5-game stretch that dropped the Nuggets from 2^nd to 5^th in the West.  He has been consistent, aggressive, and solid on defense.  You can’t ask for any more from your team’s best player.

And yet Anthony was having a quiet game (for him) until an interesting exchange between Carmelo and a testy official sparked the final phase of the blowout.

Anthony is called for a bogus offensive foul, and comes back on a defensive turnover for a breakaway layup.  Melo flips the ball to the official at the far end of the baseline after his score instead of handing it to a waiting Portland player under the basket.  The official gets puffy and red briefly before calling Anthony for a Technical Foul: delay of game.

(Melo sits for the rest of the 3^rd Quarter, presumably thinking all the while about how he’s going to throw some daggers in the final frame.)

A miss by Brandon Roy on the freebie leaves the Nuggets perturbed and in the mood to crush skulls.  Denver breaks out for a 7-point lead.

Portland takes a stand here, and it’s a good thing too.

The combination of stubborn Blazers and egomaniacal officials wakes Chauncey Billups from a week-long basketball coma.

Suddenly Chauncey is reaching deep into his bag o’ tricks and pulling out amazing driving layups.  Rudy Fernandez repeatedly falls victim to Billups’ veteran wiles.  This is alternately entertaining and relieving, and Denver closes out the 3^rd with an 11-point lead.

Anthony opens the 4^th Quarter with matching 17-foot jumpers from 40 & 45 degrees on the right side on consecutive possessions.  This is Melo’s Shot, and he was practicing it during second half warmups.  Always a pleasure to watch him fade slightly and drop 2 points from that range… especially when the net doesn’t even move.  Anthony has the prettiest shot in the league from that distance, and his second make comes with a foul shot bonus.

Melo’s make on the free throw puts Denver up by 14 with just over 9 minutes left and the Nuggets never look back.

Still, Portland doesn’t start playing defeated, deflated basketball until near the 4-minute mark.  That was when the Blazers cut the Denver lead to 10 points.

Denver’s Big Three responds with back-to-back-to-back unanswered scores by Chauncey, Carmelo & Nene in that order.

Nene draws a foul on his score and, after a desperate Portland Timeout, comes back in to finish driving the nail home: 105-88 Nuggets.  Each play in this 3-part series is an athletic, slashing drive to the basket, culminating in Nene’s finishing body blow to silence Portland for good.

The 17-point Nuggets advantage holds for a 109-92 final score.

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When last I wrote about the Nuggets I said the Boston loss was the type of loss to either invigorate & refocus the Nuggets… or it would send them into a week & a half long tailspin.  The Nuggets have gone 1-2 since their undressing in Boston.

The 1-3 road trip thus far has sunk the Nuggets into a hole, and so the game tonight at Dallas has new significance.  The Nuggets have three road games remaining and must win all of them to have a winning record on the road.  They are, in order of importance, At Dallas tonight, At Oklahoma City on April 7^th, At Phoenix to end the season.  Conceivably the Nuggets could lose all 3.  If the Nuggets are to lock up the number 2 they will have to win at least 2, maybe 3 of those games.

But the real importance in winning tonight’s game is that the winner gets the tiebreaker.

If the Nuggets win, they move up to the 2-spot with a half-game advantage and force a tie in the all-important Loss Column, but it might as well be 1.5 games with the tiebreaker.  If the Nuggets lose, they will be 1.5 games behind and also behind in the Loss Column.  That would be 2.5 games back with the tiebreaker.

This is the rare 4-game swing in the NBA we are witnessing tonight.  The Nuggets better bring their A game.

1^st Quarter

6:23 The Nuggets are placing more attention on Assists this game.

Everyone’s been talking about how few assists there have per game in the slump.  It hasn’t translated to points.  Mainly the Nuggets are settling for jump shots early and they aren’t falling.  On the other end the Mavericks are also settling for jump shots, but they are falling.  Dallas is 7-10 from the field to start, mainly off the pick and roll.

0:00 Well, the Nuggets have improved their play but are only maintaining the deficit.

The bench is playing better than the starters.  J.R. Smith has hit two in a row and Malik Allen just made a three. (I don’t know how I feel about Allen taking 3s but I like him making them.)  On the other end, the Mavs are passing into the low post on every play.

End Quarter Mavs 31-23

The story of the game has been accurate jump-shooting vs a not-so-accurate jump shot.  The Nuggets are allowing the Mavs to make easy passes to their bigs down low.  Jump shots from there are much higher percentage than the perimeter jump shots the Nuggets are taking.

Denver is trying to set up isolations with Carmelo Anthony on the wing and the Mavs are doubling him.  Someone else needs to step up and teach the Mavs not to double Anthony.

2^nd Quarter

5:22 The bench is coming up big for the Nuggets.

The lead has been closed to 5 and Denver’s backups are shooting 8 for 10 between Ty Lawson, Smith, and Joey Graham.  Allen is also respectable shooting 2-5 with 2-2 three pointers.  The Nuggets are scoring all their points either by the dribble-drive or in transition.  Meanwhile, Chris Anderson looks like he might be having one of his nights – 3 blocks so far.

1:46 The starters come back in and the lead promptly goes up to nine.

Foul shots coming for Brendan Haywood.  A good comparison right now that Adrian Dauntley better see is that the Mavericks are putting a player under the basket on every shot for an Offensive Rebound and blocking out on every Nuggets shot.  The Nuggets are doing neither.

0:00 The Denver starters stop the bleeding.

Once again, only enough to maintain the deficit.  The Mavs tried to drop the hammer in the closing seconds and began launching poorly arranged threes.  Fortunately for the Nuggets, none fell.

End Quarter 55-46

In retrospect it’s not as bad as it could have been, and that’s usually a sign that a momentum change will alter the entire game.  The refs have been even-handed, the bench has outplayed one of the (so-called) best benches in basketball, and the Mavericks have gotten 3 disgusting three pointers to fall (including one by Rodrigue Beaubois in which Chauncey Billups tipped the shot and it went in anyway).

But Dallas is leading in the important stats (Boards 22-18, Dimes 14-6).  The Nuggets could be ahead in rebounds if they would just put someone under the basket on every play.  And at some point someone is going to have to pass the basketball… this whole doing everything yourself thing ain’t working.

Although the biggest reason for the deficit is Melo’s stat line (1-8 FG, 0 dimes, 3 points).  In most cases I’d say if the shots aren’t falling then pass the ball to somebody else, but this is Melo.  He can’t be shut down for the entire game right?   But Carmelo has only driven off the isolation once and it resulted in his three points.   Every other time Melo gets the ball in isolation he’s been double teamed or took a quick jumper.

Carmelo Anthony needs to go to the rim.

3^rd Quarter

8:55 Nuggets open the quarter by falling into the same bad habits that got them the deficit in the first place.

Jump-shooting way to early in the possession, and letting Dallas get the ball to the low post way too easy.  The lead is now 16.

5:53 Apparently I spoke too soon in praising the refs for their even-handedness.

6 fouls in the quarter, all of them on the Nuggets.  No less than 2 have been bona-fide phantom fouls, and at least one foul on the Mavericks has been missed.

0:00 The bench comes in and battles back to 10.

The highlight was in the Nuggets last possession J.R. Smith after draining the clock drives down the right side of the key, Jason Kidd puts his hand out and knocks the ball away, Smith recovers beyond the three point arch at about the right side 40 degrees mark.  With the shot clock about to expire he’s forced to put up a prayer, he jumps backward out of bounds.  3 points. 3diculous shot.

End Quarter Mavs 79-69

The Nuggets are just kinda hanging around.  With as bad as the starters have played and as well as the Mavericks have played (particularly Heywood) the game certainly feels very much in question for a 10-point game.

4^th Quarter

10:02 Nuggets open the quarter with points on their first 4 possessions.

Denver closes the lead to 7 and Dallas wants a time out.  Mostly due to poor transition defense by the Mavs results in two fouls on Nene and a particularly bad defensive setup that left Smith open at the top of the key with no one between him and the basket.

10:02-9:56 Time that elapsed between Dallas’ four and fifth timeouts.

Good defense by the Nuggets on the inbound.

8:55 Credit where credit is due, the refs open the 4^th by calling fouls in the Nuggets’ favor 5-1.

7:58 The Nuggets were playing with all the momentum in the world.

Denver had cut the lead to 8 and then fumbled the basketball away, the Mavs went the other way and scored two.  The following possession goes the same way.  4-6 point swing.

6:44 The Mavs make the most of the momentum swing.

Dirk Nowitzki buries a three from the top of the arch to put the Mavs up by 16.  This game feels over.

0:00 The game ends without further incident or contest.

End Game Mavs 109-93

This entire game was still on the line even with the Nuggets down by 8 in the fourth.   And then 1 moment’s lack of focus by J.R. Smith and Jason Kidd steps in with a steal and Dallas takes an 8-point lead to 16 in 2 minutes.   One play in the middle of the fourth quarter and a possible win becomes a 20ish point loss.  That’s how close this was.

In spite of the mistake that cost the Nuggets the game, Smith was clearly the best player on the floor.

Further, the mistake notwithstanding, the reason for the loss is the fault of the stars, Carmelo & Chauncey.  They combined for 6-30 shooting and a tepid 21 points.  If two guys are going to take 40% of your shots they can’t miss 80% of those.

The good news is that I think the losing streak is over.

Not just because the road trip is over, and 5 of the remaining 7 are at home, but because of the type of loss this was.  This was about as close to a must-win you will get in the regular season and the team played well while the stars played poorly.  That one almost fixes itself.

Before, when the Nuggets lost to Boston, everyone played badly except Melo and Chauncey.

That’s a harder fix.   That takes players taking a step back, getting back in line, playing for the teams.  When your stars play poorly, it takes everyone doing exactly what they did and the stars need to step up, which they are doing anyway.  I expect the next game against the Portland Trailblazers on Thursday to be a rout of 15-25 points and Portland won’t challenge in the 4^th.

And expect Melo and Chauncey to pile it on.

In other news, everyone raise your glasses to the New Jersey Nets.  With a 90-84 win over the San Antonio Spurs, the Nets have recorded their 10^th win of the season and successfully become NOT the worst team ever.  Congrats.

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