Can NFC Championship Game standout BJ Raji get to Big Ben? The Packers' title hopes may rest on his ample shoulders
Image by Getty Images via @daylife
America’s greatest unofficial holiday is once again upon us.
Super Bowl XLV (45 for those of you who never learned Roman numerals) will be showcased at the palatial estate of Jerry Jones – Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas. This year’s matchup promises to be a very physical battle between two of the NFL’s most historically successful franchises.
No franchises are more synonymous with the Super Bowl than the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers. The Steelers will make their record-tying (with the Dallas Cowboys) 8th Super Bowl appearance, and their six Super Bowl victories are the most all-time.
The Packers won the first two Super Bowls behind Coach Vince Lombardi, whose name now adorns the NFL’s Championship trophy. With five league championships in the 1960′s, and a record 12 all-time, Green Bay, Wisconsin became known as “Titletown”.
The Steelers and Packers ranked #1 & #2 in the NFL respectively in points allowed in 2011 (Pittsburgh 232, Green Bay 240). This is the first time in 28 years that the top two scoring defenses in the league have met in the Super Bowl (SB XVII: Redskins/Dolphins).
Let’s not forget the offenses, though. Super Bowl XLV will showcase two of the league’s best young quarterbacks, as well as strong running backs and some of the league’s most exciting wide receivers.
The Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger & Aaron Rodgers have come here from opposite ends of the spectrum.
Roethlisberger has gone from the doghouse to the penthouse this year. He began the season on a four-game suspension after being accused of sexual assault by a 20-year old woman, the second time in the last few years that such claims were made against him. Although he was never charged with a crime, Commissioner Roger Goodell suspended Roethlisberger for the first six games of 2010. The suspension was later reduced to four games after Roethlisberger had gone “above and beyond” in his efforts to change his ways, according to Goodell.
After the Steelers went 3-1 in his absence, Roethlisberger returned and passed for 3,200 yards, 17 TDs, and only 5 interceptions in leading the Steelers to the AFC North title. Big Ben went 19/32 for 226 yards and 2 TDs to lead his team past the Ravens in the Divisional Playoff. He then rushed for a touchdown as the Steelers defeated the Jets for the AFC title a week later, but managed only 133 yards passing and threw 2 interceptions without a touchdown in that game.
Three years ago, Aaron Rodgers took on the unenviable task of replacing the legendary Brett Favre in Green Bay. The Denver Broncos have never found the same success since John Elway retired, nor have the Miami Dolphins since the departure of Dan Marino or the 49ers since Steve Young.
The Packers saw a rare smooth transition from aging superstar to young stud.
Rodgers has been nothing short of brilliant since inheriting Favre’s throne, throwing for 4,000 yards in each of his first two seasons as starter. He fell just 78 yards shy of that mark in 2011 after missing a start and parts of games due to two concussions that he suffered this year.
For his career, Rodgers has thrown 87 touchdown passes and just 32 interceptions, with a completion percentage of 64.4%. He combines a strong arm and smart decision-making with tremendous mobility, having 13 rushing TDs in the past three years.
After an injury-plagued regular season, the Packers finished 10-6 and made the NFC playoffs as the #6 seed with a win over the Bears on the final day of the regular season.
Rodgers threw 3 TD passes in a first-round win in Philadelphia. He then tore apart the Atlanta Falcons with one of the greatest passing performances in postseason history, going 31/36 for 366 yards and 3 more TDs, and adding a rushing TD in a 48-21 blowout of the NFC’s top seed. Like Roethlisberger, Rodgers wasn’t quite as sharp in his Conference title game in Chicago, throwing 2 interceptions and no TDs. He still passed for 244 yards, and ran 7 times for 39 yards and a touchdown to lead the Packers to a 21-14 win and their first Super Bowl berth in 13 years.
Offense
When it comes to the running game, the Steelers would have had a significant edge six weeks ago. Green Bay’s starting running back, Ryan Grant, was lost for the season on opening day, and their ground game struggled in his absence. Late in the season, however, the Packers found a diamond in the rough named James Starks.
Starks, a rookie out of Buffalo, missed most of the year on the physically unable to perform list and had little impact during the regular season. In the Wild Card game against the Eagles, though, he exploded for 123 yards on 23 carries to help the Packers advance. He racked up 74 yards and a TD in the Pack’s NFC title win in Chicago.
The Steelers running game is lead by Rashard Mendenhall, who rushed for 1,273 yards in the regular season, finishing 7th in the league. Mendenhall scored 2 TDs in the Steelers’ playoff win over Baltimore, and shredded the Jets defense for 121 yards and a TD in the AFC Championship.
Both offenses feature outstanding receivers. Both clubs have an excellent mix of great young players & veteran talent.
Pittsburgh’s Hines Ward is a Hall-of-Famer in waiting. He caught 59 passes and 5 TDs in his 13th NFL season, and scored a TD in the playoffs against the Ravens. Green Bay’s Donald Driver, a 12-year veteran playing in his first Super Bowl, caught 51 passes and 4 TDs in 2011, and has added 12 more catches in the playoffs.
Those two vets have been replaced as the #1 receiver on their respective teams by exciting young playmakers. Second-year man Mike Wallace for Pittsburgh and fifth-year man Greg Jennings for Green Bay are blazing fast and have the hands to back it up. Jennings caught 76 passes for 1,265 yards and 12 TDs. Wallace almost matched him with 1,257 yards while catching only 60 passes, scoring 10 TDs. Jennings has had the better postseason, catching 17 passes in three games, while Wallace has been held to just 4 catches in two games. Wallace may be due for a huge game.
The offensive line edge goes to the Packers, as the Steelers front five has been decimated by injuries all season. Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey still claims that he will play despite a severe ankle sprain that took him out of the AFC title game.
Defense
“Defense wins championships.” It’s a cliché, but it fits in this Super Bowl.
Super Bowl XLV will feature, arguably, the two best linebacking corps in football.
The Steelers’ group of James Harrison, James Farrior, Lawrence Timmons, and LaMarr Woodley combined for 281 total tackles and 29.5 sacks. The Packers’ group of Clay Matthews, A.J. Hawk, Desmond Bishop, and Erik Walden had 222 total tackles and 20 sacks. The charged, aggressive Matthews logged 13 1/2 of those sacks. In the playoffs the Packers have racked up 10 sacks in three games, while the Steelers have 7 in two games.
The Steelers have the edge in run defense, having allowed a mere 62.8 rushing yards per game in 2010. Their run defense is anchored by defensive line members Ziggy Hood, Casey Hampton, and the man with the best beard in NFL history, Brett Keisel.
The Steelers led the NFL with 48 sacks. The Packers were second with 47.
The Packers have the larger, better pass rushing D-line with 340 lb. Ryan Pickett, 337 lb. nose tackle B.J. Raji, and 305 lb. Cullen Jenkins, who combined for 14.5 sacks. The Steelers’ front 3 managed only 7 total sacks.
Both teams also boast strong pass defenses. Pittsburgh’s secondary is lead, of course, by the great Troy Polamalu, who is joined by Ryan Clark, Bryant McFadden, and Ike Taylor. The Packers are led by veteran DB Charles Woodson, along with Charlie Peprah, Nick Collins and Tramon Williams.
The edge in pass D goes to the Packers, who picked off 24 passes in the regular season and six more in the playoffs. Three of those playoff picks came from Williams, including a last minute INT off of Michael Vick that sealed a win in Philly, and the pick-six against Atlanta that effectively broke the Falcons’ back. B.J. Raji’s super-sized pick-six off of Caleb Hanie sealed the NFC Championship game against the Bears.
Prediction
Clearly, with all of the great defenders in this game, there will be a lot of hard hits and ample bruises to show off at the end. But it will be the offense that finds a way to execute in the crunch that wins Super Bowl XLV.
The Packers probably will not have a lot of success running the ball, so their hopes will lie on how well Aaron Rodgers plays in his first Super Bowl. Rodgers is definitely the best quarterback that the Steelers have faced in the playoffs. With two weeks of preparation, Rodgers should have a good idea of how to attack the Steeler defense. But will his lack of Super Bowl experience be a factor?
The Steelers also are likely to have trouble running the ball, so Ben Roethlisberger will have to be sharper than he’s ever been to win the game. The Pack’s outstanding linebackers and DB’s will make Big Ben pay for any mistake that he makes. The Steelers have the experience, playing in their third Super Bowl in six years and having won two. But the Packers will be their toughest opponent of the three.
In my opinion, Aaron Rodgers will shine and the Packer defense will force Roethlisberger into costly mistakes.
The Vince Lombardi Trophy is coming back to Titletown, USA.
Packers 27, Steelers 20
