Pat Bowlen faces a tough decision in the coming weeks
- Image by Getty Images via @daylife
Just two short years ago, early in 2009 the Broncos made a big splash by snatching up the hottest young coordinator in the NFL ranks, handing the keys to the franchise to a young, inexperienced, fiery offensive coordinator from New England. Josh McDaniels promised to bring the “Patriot Way” to the Rocky Mountains. He did just that – including the hoodies, the dictatorial system of personnel management, the intentionally vague injury reports, and the video cheating scandals. In fact, he brought the entire Patriot Way, including several Patriot cast-off players, except the most important part: the winning. It was the video scandal combined with the horrific losing record that finally cost McDaniels his job – and left the once proud Broncos franchise in a shambles. Left now with Tim Tebow as the only remaining positive from McDaniels’ tenure (and even that is a source of furious debate), the Broncos enter the 2010 offseason looking for the new coach to try to right the ship. The new coach faces the daunting task of rebuilding one of the league’s worst defenses, developing a rough but promising young quarterback, and winning back the hearts of the Bronco faithful. And whoever this coach is, he must do so in the face of a work stoppage due to labor issues in the NFL.
The following is a roundup of potential candidates for the head coaching position of the Denver Broncos. I don’t claim to know who will get the job – I’m not in the interview room, and I have yet to demonstrate any sort of future-telling skills. We’re simply evaluating the names that are out there and hoping to make sense of a messy situation. Expect the Broncos to take their time to find exactly the guy they want. Bowlen jumped at McD, presumably to scoop him up before someone else. This time, we’re waiting for the Elway deal to be complete, the GM situation to be formalized (probably Elway as VP of Football Ops, Xanders remaining as GM), then the search process will proceed in earnest.
The Sexy Hire (aka, The Bill Parcells Division)
The Sexy Hire Division is made up of guys that the owner simply opens up his checkbook and gives up whatever the guys asks, based on reputation, track-record, and name recognition. The Sexy Hire doesn’t necessarily have to be a previously successful coach (see Carroll, Pete).
Bill Cowher - Bill Cowher led the Steelers back to prominence in the early part of this decade. Since stepping down, his name has been bandied about for nearly every available coaching job, but he’s shown little interest in returning to the coaching ranks. While Cowher would bring huge name recognition and instant respect to the team, he’s only recently begun to talk about coaching again, and only in a few select southern (warm weather) cities. Cowher would also demand a huge salary and unfettered control – a system Bowlen is finally ready to give up on. Expect Cowher to look at the recently vacated Carolina job, and possibly Houston should Kubiak be let go after this season (more on him later). Cowher will not become the Broncos head coach.
Jon Gruden – Gruden has been the name most clamored for among the loudest of Bronco fans. Gruden, like Cowher, would bring a fiery, hard-nosed attitude and instant respect. Gruden knows the AFC West, and would likely relish the chance to pound on Al Davis twice a year. Gruden led the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl (albeit with Dungy’s team), and is known for developing quarterbacks and would be a fantastic mentor for Tim Tebow. Unfortunately, Gruden comes with the same roadblocks as Cowher. He hasn’t been showing much interest in coaching again – he’s got a pretty sweet gig on MNF. He would demand a huge salary, which is hard for a team already paying two head coaches. He would demand full control over all personnel decisions. Based on those two issues alone, don’t expect Gruden to be roaming the Denver sidelines.
Successful NCAA Coach (aka, The Steve Spurrier Division)
For every Jimmy Johnson that successfully makes the jump from the college ranks to the pros, there’s a group of college coaches that ran back to the NCAA, their professional tails between their legs. Spurrier and Saban are some of the most recent names to grace the list of great college coaches to fail in the NFL. For some reason, NFL owners can’t resist the hot college coach – they forget that their rosters are not filled with 21 year old amateurs, but grown men with multi-million dollar salaries.
Jim Harbaugh, Stanford – Harbaugh is a bit of an enigma on this list. Yes, he’s a college coach, but he’s the perfect example of  how the college game is becoming more and more like the pro game. He’s an NFL experienced guy, who is experiencing NCAA success, mostly due to a pro-style system. He’s probably one of the most pro-ready college coaches out there. Still – you can’t deny the risk. The NFL is a different game, and Harbaugh has not demonstrated coaching success at the NFL level. Additionally, all indications are that Harbaugh is happy with his gig at Stanford – although even the most successful college coaches (with a few exceptions) covet the chance to succeed on Sundays (again, see Carroll, Pete). While Harbaugh might get asked to interview, I wouldn’t expect to see him make the jump to Sundays this season.
Bob Stoops, Oklahoma – Stoops is often mentioned for NFL jobs, and it’s no secret that Bowlen would give some serious thought to offering him the chance to make the jump to the pros in Denver. But just like any other coach from the college ranks, he’s going to face the experience question – the Broncos are not interested in another on-the-job-training project. Put Stoops low on the list.
NFL Retreads (aka, The Marty Schottenheimer Division)
There is a long list of former NFL coaches, with varying ranges of success, that are looking for head jobs again. Some are coordinators, some are broadcasters, some are in other leagues entirely (The UFL? Really?). But this list is likely where the next coach will come from. Besides it being the longest list of qualified candidates, it’s most likely the Broncos will find a solid coach with good experience, and one who will meet the other conditions: lower salary, and a GM to make personnel decisions.
Jim Fassel – probably a top 5 candidate. Currently coaching in the UFL, has Denver history, took the Giants to a Super Bowl.
Mike Nolan – another guy with Denver history. Defensive-minded coach, coached the defense in Denver last year, did the best he could with sub-standard players. HC for 49ers, with little success.
Brian Billick – big name, almost belonged in the Sexy Hire Division, but for some reason hasn’t gotten nary a look from teams looking for coaches in recent years. Offensive minded guy who won a Super Bowl with one of the best defenses in NFL history. Might bring the big-name factor without the giant price tag.
Marty Mornhinweg, Mike Mularkey, Gregg Williams, Rod Marinelli, Dom Capers – all these guys are kindof in the same boat. They’ll get the interview, because they are  reasonably successful coordinators with head coaching experience.
SUBDIVISION: The Hot Seat Coaches – These guys are either currently employed as head coaches, or recently fired.
Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans – Gary should get his own division. He’s the guy that looked to be the eventual successor to Shanahan, but deservedly got the Houston job when it came available and Shanahan was still Coach for Life in Denver. Kubiak has obvious Denver connections, knows the Denver system, and would be able to rebuild the “Denver Way”.
John Fox, Carolina Panthers – just announced that he won’t return. This opens the way for Cowher in Carolina, and Fox, with some success in past years, will likely get a look by several teams to fill a coaching vacancy.
Mike Singeltary – Lots of promise, but a colossal failure in San Francisco.
Rick Dennision, Houston Texans OC – Should have probably gotten the job over McDaniels. Would be a great partner with Kubiak, but is probably ready to take on a head job himself. Might get tired of waiting for the Broncos to give him a shot and take a head job elsewhere.
Leslie Frazier, Minnesota Vikings – He’ll probably keep the Minnesota job. Interviewed well for the Broncos job, and in hindsight, also should have probably been hired.
The Up and Coming Coordinator (aka, The Josh McDaniels Division)
The Broncos will probably not go here, but there are some assistants who appear ready to make the jump. Leslie Frazier has already done so on an interim level, and will likely stay put. Jason Garrett appears to be in the same boat in Dallas.
Perry Fewell, NYG – Fewell will get a look at head coach from some teams, but with all the names available, might have a hard time landing a gig.
Ron Rivera, SD – Rivera will also get a look, but like Fewell might have a hard time standing out in the crowd.
Just For The Hell of It (aka, the Mike Shanahan Division)
This division is reserved for the names that are not serious considerations, just some scenarios that are humorous to think about, intentionally or otherwise.
Dan Reeves – He’s not as old as JoePa.
Wade Phillips – He’s available.
Urban Meyer – He’d have a clue about how to coach Tebow.
Eric Studesville – I wasn’t sure whether to put him on this list – because his candidacy will not be a joke. However, he’s just not ready. He’s done an admirable job holding down the fort after McDaniels, and certainly deserves a bigger job than “running backs coach for a team with a crappy running game”. But the lack of experience is sure to underwhelm the new Broncos brass, and while I honestly respect the man, I just don’t see him as the guy to move the Broncos forward.
Wrapping it Up (Finally)
There’s no shortage of available coaches. The list at least doubles when you start thinking of potential assistants – and let’s be honest, the defensive coordinator will probably be the guy with the hardest job on the new staff. If you take a look at all the signals though, you can really narrow down the list quite a bit. The Broncos want a guy with head coaching experience, but not just any retread – they want  a guy demonstrating success in the current NFL landscape. They want a guy who won’t demand full control – there will be a GM for this team, one who will likely report to John Elway. That eliminates the college guys, the big-name guys, and many of the retread guys. First things first, the deal with Elway needs to get done. Then, wait and see what happens with a couple guys on the list who still have jobs.
For my own part (the other PSC writers can speak for themselves here, I’m just throwing out my own opinion here), I’d love to see either Kubiak or Dennison back in the fold. Dennison would be a great OC for Kubiak here, just like in Texas, but I wouldn’t mind to see Rick get the head job. That would, of course, mean Kubiak would not take the gig as OC. There’s still a chance that Kubes keeps his gig in Houston, though I doubt it. So a Kubiak or Dennison as head coach, and I’d love to have Nolan back as DC, but he already has a job and has no reason to make such a lateral move. He could be a dark-horse candidate for the head job, though. Wade Phillips is available and would run a pretty solid defense. He’s clearly not a head coaching candidate right now. Fassel as head coach wouldn’t kill me, but it wouldn’t excite me either. Billick brings the same response from me – doesn’t bother me, but doesn’t excite me. In fact, nothing excites me like a true return to the Broncos system – Kubiak, Dennison, heck, find Alex Gibbs if you can. Get Rod Smith to coach the receivers, and for cryin’ out loud get a guy like Gradishar or Mecklenburg in here to teach some dudes how to tackle.
There are qualified guys available, many of whom would be a good fit and would love to come to Denver. Here’s to hoping Bowlen and Company make a good decision this time around.
