West playoff race tightens around Nuggets with 5 to play
The Nuggets will try to hold off Carlos Boozer and the Utah Jazz for another NW Division title
- Image by Getty Images via Daylife
The Denver Nuggets’ playoff seed could be #2 in the Western Conference. Then again, it could be #8.
With 5 games left, even LA could lose every game and potentially get lifted from their slot as the #1 seed. (Don’t worry Lakers Nation… they’re waiting for the playoffs to choke.)
Four teams currently sit at 50 wins, 27 losses.
The Nuggets (#3) are among them, tucked just below the Dallas Mavericks (#2) and above the Utah Jazz (#4) & the Phoenix Suns (#5). The Lakers are a win away from clinching the top spot in the West, and both the Oklahoma City Thunder & San Antonio Spurs are within striking distance of everybody, but unlikely to make the leap.
We’ll know all about OKC’s chances of charging the upper echelon of the playoff field by Friday, as they play Utah, Denver & Phoenix all in a row between now and then.
All of the various tiebreakers could make it a circus to sort out. Really, so many different potential realities exist over the next week that I have decided to point out the most crucial games by bolding them above. It’s the best I can do to make sense of the coming madness.
Here’s how it all shakes out…
Dallas controls its destiny as the current #2 seed.
They will face off against Memphis tonight (win) and then travel to Portland (loss) & Sacramento (win) on consecutive nights. The Mavericks will finish a 3-game West Coast swing in LA against the Clippers (blowout win) one week from today. They finish their season at home versus the San Antonio Spurs (loss) who have slowly, methodically battled their way to the #7 seed.
Dallas looks likely to hold onto their position at the top of the heap, but have been inconsistent all season. As Dirk goes, so do the Mavericks.
Final 5 Prediction: 3-2
Phoenix is a long-shot to catch up from the #5 slot
The Suns have been on a tear, winning 24 of their last 30 games. They welcome the Spurs to Phoenix on Wednesday (win) before traveling to Oklahoma City (loss) on Friday. Then they return home for two games in three nights against Houston (win) & Denver (win) before heading immediately to Utah (loss) a night later to close out their season.
The Suns are a dangerous team entering the playoffs, but will be too tired traveling to Utah the night after a home game versus the Nuggets to catch up to Dallas in the standings.
Final 5 Prediction: 3-2
Utah sits at #4 looking up at the NW Division title
The Jazz are a serious danger to the Nuggets in the NW Division title race. Denver won the season series, so Utah will have to out-win the Nuggets from here on. But they have an interesting mix of easy teams on the road and tough teams at home. Not a good combination for a club that struggles outside of Salt Lake City
Tomorrow night the Jazz will welcome a dangerous team to town in the Oklahoma City Thunder (win), but Utah has handled the Thunder very well in the past. The Jazz then go on a 3-game swing through Houston (loss), New Orleans (win) and Golden State (loss) before coming home to face Phoenix (win) a night later.
That’s right, Utah and Phoenix will meet in SLC for an all-out battle on April 14th to close the season. Luckily the game is on ESPN so everyone can watch the fireworks.
Final 5 Prediction: 3-2
The Nuggets probably need to win 4 of 5 to improve beyond the #3
Even then, a loss to Phoenix on the final night of the Nuggets’ regular season could spell doom for their seeding if the Suns can hold par until then. In fact, Denver is the most vulnerable team in this field with injuries to Kenyon Martin & Chris Andersen still handicapping their frontcourt. The Nuggets have taken a big (6’11”) step towards fixing that problem.
On top of all that, the Nuggets will be without head coach George Karl, likely well into the postseason. That means Adrian Dantley will be on an island making the tough decisions about how to handle bumps in the road along the way.
And bumps there will be, as the Nuggets head to Oklahoma City (loss) on Wednesday before coming home to face the Lakers (win) on Thursday night. Then the rising San Antonio Spurs (win) come to town Saturday, followed by Memphis (big, thumping win) on Monday. The final test will be in Phoenix next Tuesday, and that game is likely to mean the difference between potentially two or three spots on the playoff ladder for both teams. Call it serendipity, the whole nation will watch that battle live on TNT.
Final 5 Prediction: 3-2
You may have noticed that I predicted each team to finish 3-2 over their last 5 games. This is no fluke. It is not a designed reading of schedules intended to raise the tension. No, this is actually how I expect the final 5 games to shake out.
If the breaks go as predicted, even if Denver loses to the Suns in their final regular season game, then the Nuggets will hold onto their current seed. Phoenix will have won the season series, but Denver would move forward as the #3 so long as they stay on par with Utah and ahead of Oklahoma City to win the NW Division. (The Lakers will almost assuredly win the Suns’ Pacific Division.)
So get to a TV if you can, find a bar with the full NBA package if you must, but watch as many of these games as you can. It may just be a warm up for the Main Event, but this next week is going to be one hell of a show.
