For the majority of this game, Boston was the better team, but during the time the Nuggets were the better team they just crushed the Celtics.
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Pre-Game Analysis
Chris Anderson is still questionable for this game and that’s big since he’s remarkably effective against Kevin Garnett. The Nuggets will need Nene and Kenyon Martin to have a big day rebounding and defensively if Anderson doesn’t play.
Glen Davis and Kendrick Perkins are no slouches down low either. But then, that’s the strength of the Celtics; fast, strong, smart big men who win down low and force the battle outside (which results in some low-scoring basketball).
1st Quarter
9:36 Already both teams are resorting to jump-shooting and no one is hitting. The slow play would favor Boston because of Garnett. Anderson has entered the game (huge) after Martin left with two early fouls. This could be a blessing in disguise.
9:11-6:49 Nuggets go on an 11-4 run due to good jump-shooting, superior rebounding (Celtics 3-Nuggets 6) and two breakaways. The best play was a pull-up three by Carmelo Anthony that clanked off the backside of the rim, but Aaron Afflalo got a good hustle rebound over Perkins and put it back in. The run forces a Celtics Time Out.
5:45 If jump-shooting is the name of the game, Anthony wins. The Celtics have no answer for Melo in Isolation. They are posting him with a near secondary defender so as not to let them him drive, thus he’s getting several good looks with his pivots.
2:39 The Nuggets are dominating the boards.  Good hustle all around and some very lazy rebounding by Boston. I’m wondering if the long road trip and the high altitude are finding the Celtics a little tired. Time Out Boston.
2:06 Boston, since that first Time Out, is trying to work the ball inside better, but so far it hasn’t translated into points. Birdman has been playing great post defense. The Nuggets are getting paint points now too, but they are getting there with offensive rebounding after failed jumpers.
3:37-0:16 Nuggets go on an 11-5 run due mainly to great rebounding. Simply out-hustling Boston for the rebounds.  Of course, shooting 73% on the quarter helps, but two of Denver’s misses became offensive rebounds.  Both were put right back in.
End Quarter. Nuggets 37, Celtics 19
Nuggets finally getting to the basket towards the end of the quarter because Boston’s defense is loosening up to deal with Denver’s hot shooting. Birdman is on fire. He should play the entire game.
2nd Quarter
10:16 Boston’s hustle is picking up. Two straight Denver possessions end with decent but risky passes that are barely picked off by Boston paint defenders.
8:46 Boston goes on a little mini-run to start the quarter.  Not quite big enough to give the stat line on, but it’s because the Nuggets are trying some pick-and-roll, something they have never been good at (2 TO). The Celtics have gotten back to smart jump-shooting, which is the way to beat the Nuggets.
6:13 Ty Lawson makes a pair of great plays, one at each end of the court. Fighting for a rebound with Davis, Lawson knocks the ball off Davis’ head out of bounds. Then hustles down the court and drives in from the left side to earn a foul on Big Baby (3 PF). Note: Lawson missed both FT. The Nuggets are 6-12 from the line so far. Isn’t missed FT’s how we stayed in the Cleveland game last week? The Nuggets must fix this.
4:34 Nuggets are trying some knifing motions to the baskets.  So far it’s translating to fouls but no points since everyone is missing their FT’s. Boston, on the other hand, is finding the boards turning to toward their advantage, as much as the Nuggets dominated rebounding in the 1st quarter, Boston is dominant in the 2nd.
2:51 Refs are calling an even but inconsistent game. Boston has good reason to angry right now; they had a 4 on 2 breakaway taken away from them by the refs because George Karl got a Technical Foul.
0:04 Boston has a great defensive stand on the final Nuggets’ possession to force an off-balance J. R. Smith three point attempt from 4 feet behind the arch under duress. The Celtics in the closing minutes of the quarter have returned to the opening defense of locking down the paint and forcing jump shots, only now the perimeter defenders are disrupting things for the Nuggets’ jump-shooters.
0:01 Celtics’ final possession is a quick pass ahead to Rajon Rondo, foul on Smith defending at half court. Rondo misses one FT.  Boston is missing FT’s too (8-12), though not to the degree the Nuggets have (8-18).
End Half. Nuggets 54, Celtics 47
The Nuggets crushed the Celtics in the first quarter and since it’s been a slow but steady claw and crawl back in for Boston. If the game continues as it is going right now Boston will win by double digits. Of course, if the Nuggets could make their FT’s the game wouldn’t look nearly as in jeopardy as is does.  Reason for the Nuggets’ lead is that they made their dominant quarter (1st) count more than the Celtics did theirs (2nd).
Boston started the game daring the Nuggets to jump-shoot and the Nuggets made them pay, but now they are rotating very well defensively while locking down the paint.  This has not come without cost since Perkins and Big Baby Davis are both in foul trouble with 3 each. If the Nuggets pass and drive more they will get some looks as good as they got in the first few minutes, and probably get the big men for the Celtics out of the game. Kenyon and Chauncey Billups also have 3 fouls.
The matchup that has been the best for the Nuggets is Billups guarding Ray Allen. Allen had four points on five attempts in the 1st Quarter. When Chauncey left the game in foul trouble, Allen scored 13 in the 2nd against the other two Nuggets guards.
3rd Quarter
11:11 Nuggets’ first possession of the 2nd half is terrible; no drives, no shots. Nuggets are passing the ball just fine now but someone has to try and score.
9:09-6:41 Celtics go on a 10-4 run. Nothing too amazing to explain the run, mostly just typical Celtic basketball. Slow half-court game, good defense, good rebounding, and then take a point here and a point there. Nuggets have got to find a way to snap out of this scoring slump. The run ends with a Billups drive for foul shots. Note: Billups has 10 points in the 3rd Quarter already.
2:54 Celtics tie the game at 66 and the Nuggets promptly go out and score 6 quick points on a Melo pass to a driving Nene (I love this play, why don’t they run it more often?) and a pair of drives by Melo. More good news: the Nuggets are back above 50% FT shooting (16-27).
1:00 I don’t know how Chauncey Billups does it, but he knows how to pick his spots. He is quietly having a great game (6-9 FG, 2-3 3 Pt, 7-7 FT, 21 points, 5 dimes, +21).
0:05 Nuggets’ final play of the quarter is a beauty; Melo from the left 80 degree mark drives inside the defender down the lane, creates a black hole & sucks all the defenders to him, jumps up and passes to wide open Kenyon underneath, 2 points. The Celtics’ final play is a missed three by Rondo under duress.
End Quarter. Nuggets 82, Celtics 73
The Nuggets played a poor maintain-the-lead type game (which the Celtic took advantage of) until the final 3 minutes and then let the dogs loose (about time too). Also, against a team that makes you jump-shoot, there hasn’t been a lot of three point attempts (13, 5 made). Just a funny stat.
4th Quarter
9:00 Both teams upped the energy for the 4th quarter, but everything the Nuggets are gaining with high offensive effort they’re giving back with lazy defense.  The last four possessions went: Nuggets second-chance points, Celtics fast break, Nuggets second chance points, Celtics fast break. There is no excuse for a fast break on a made basket.
7:50 Melo and Lawson team up for a nice little turnover; Melo taps the ball as Marquis Daniels drives past him and Ty grabs the ball falling out of bounds. Melo then drives to the top of the key and dishes to J.R. from the left 35 degree three point mark, 3 points, forces Boston Time Out. Boston only has 3 timeouts left (2 Full, 1 :20)
3:52 Boston is scoring consistently enough that there hasn’t really been any real runs, but the Nuggets are now at full-throttle. 3 point attempts have finally begun, and the hammer has fallen (3-5 in the quarter). Boston is behind by 15 and the Nuggets smell blood in the water.
2:57 No sooner do type the Nuggets’ praises than they commit 2 turnovers and 2 fouls. Boston’s not helping themselves though, they are missing FT’s like the Nuggets did in the 1st half (13-24 in the game for the Celtics).
2:16 Nuggets up by ten and playing keep-away. Normally I would scold them for moving to the prevent defense too early, but Boston is playing into their hands with some over aggressive defense yielding fouls. FT’s are putting it out of reach.
1:35 Nuggets run the clock, Melo for 3 from the left 45 degree mark. Nuggets by 14. Nuggets into foul shots.
1:08 Big Baby Davis gets a nice hook shot down low, but the Celtics are in trouble. The Nuggets know it; they aren’t even trying to defend.
0:56 Billups makes 2 FT’s, Nuggets by 13, it’s over.
End Game. Nuggets 114, Celtics 105
Post-Game Analysis
For the majority of this game, Boston was the better team, but during the time the Nuggets were the better team they just crushed the Celtics. Denver won for most of the 1st Quarter and then the entire 4th quarter. In the end, the very thing that let Boston into the game was the dagger; Free Throw shooting (8-18 in the first half, 17-22 in the second) led by Melo (8-9) and Chauncey (10-10). The Nuggets’ ability to get to the line is such a huge advantage that most teams don’t have. If they ever realize that the simple act of making 75% of their FT will get them an extra 5-8 points a game, they will (not probably, will) win a championship with this roster.
During the 1st when the Nuggets jumped out to 20 points ahead, they did it with stellar jump-shooting. Then over the course of the next two quarters they slowly let the Celtics back in with poor jump-shooting.  Part of this had to do with the Celtics altering their defense. Out of the gate they played three bodies under the basket and one on Melo, leaving 2 & sometimes 3 shooters with a good look.  Then Boston sent too many players to the perimeter, which gave up a ton of offensive rebounds. By the second quarter they had found the happy medium and were chipping away at the Nuggets lead.
In the 4th, the Nuggets changed their offense.  They began running Apartment Isolations to Melo and then knifing to net with Nene and Kenyon. The end result is 8 assists for Anthony (4 in the decisive quarter) and a return to the paint-packing by Boston, which in turn leads to wide-open three point shooters to drop the hammer (5-8 in the 4th quarter). This type of strategic adaptation is essential to beating playoff teams.
Moreover, it speaks to the importance of Carmelo passing the basketball. I’ve never seen the stat, so I ran it. The Nuggets are 21-17 (.552) this season when Melo has 4 or fewer assists. When Melo has 5 or more assists the Nuggets are 10-1 (.909) on the season.
