Dano's In-Depth Analysis: Nuggets @ Cavaliers; Thursday, February 18th, 2010
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1st Quarter Plays & Analysis
11:10 The Nuggets strike first on the fourth possession of the game. Denver is trying to establish the post game early and are moving faster down the court than the Cavaliers, which is to be expected since the Cavaliers want a half-court game with LeBron James & Shaquille O’Neil in the lineup
7:20 First foul of the game called a shooting foul Anthony Parker on Kenyon Martin under the basket. The teams are kinda feeling each other out in the opening minutes to… 1) find their rhythm again after the break and 2) probe for weak points. One glaring problem is Nene’s apparent uselessness against Shaq. Both teams are getting a good mix of paint play with jump shots
5:54 First timeout by Cleveland. Both teams are playing it pretty close to the vest right now. The Cavaliers are settling into half-court using pick & rolls with James. The Nugget are pushing the tempo with occasional isolations to Chauncey Billups or Carmelo Anthony. One thing out of the ordinary is the quick passes to Nene & Martin underneath are much more frequent than normal. Now if only someone could defend Shaq in the paint consistently.
5:28 Defensive mistake by Aaron Afflalo on the pick & roll; James to J. J. Hickson. The Cavaliers are showing some commitment to that pick & roll away from James. Aaron makes it back on the other end with an outlet three pointer from the left corner.
3:33 Mo Williams has entered the game to a standing ovation. It has long been my contention that Williams is the wrong type of point guard for LeBron; he would be much better suited with an Andre Miller type. I wouldn’t be standing or clapping to his return.
1:05 Ty Lawson is the only man back to defend James on a one-on-one breakaway. Somehow the layup doesn’t go in. Lawson took the only position on the play he could and held it nicely forcing James to alter an easy shot.
5:28-0:54 Nuggets go on an 11-4 run due to two changes… 1) The Cavaliers stopped using the pick & roll away from James that was so successful in the first half of the quarter. Now they’re trying isolations with James, which leads me to… 2) Anthony and Kenyon switched defensive responsibilities. Melo couldn’t handle Hickson and Kenyon had his hands full with James. Since the switch, I don’t know if Hickson has touched the ball. Melo has had James locked-down.  The run ended when the Cavaliers started jump shooting and they happened to make ‘em.
End Quarter. Nuggets 31-21
The stat that jumps out is the offensive rebounds: 6-1 Nuggets. But Melo’s one-on-one defense on James is the reason for the lead.
2nd Quarter Plays & Analysis
12:00-10:35 Nuggets open the quarter with a 7-2 run based around solid jump shooting vs. not-so-solid jump shooting. Solid jump shooting is the reason for the vast majority of mini runs like this in the NBA. The run ends when the Cavaliers remember Shaq is on the team. Cleveland starts scoring again.
10:20 J. R. Smith seems to have his range, which is a big plus for the Nuggets. They still have no answer for Shaq down low. It’s a good thing Shaq couldn’t make a free throw to save his life. If there was a sport for shot-putting a basketball at a basket, Shaq would be an Olympian.
(Olympic reference, check; Shaq sucks at free throws joke, double check)
10:20-5:40 Cavaliers go on a 10-2 run, Time Out Nuggets. Ten points during nearly five minutes of play is decent defense. 2 points during nearly five minutes of play is awful offense. The Nuggets have missed 8 of their last 9 shots including 5 missed by J.R. (Right after I compliment him of course.) Work it back into the paint Nuggets!
2:49 I hesitate to say it because of what happened with J.R., but Aaron Afflalo has found a nice three point stroke. He’s helped keep this a 7-point Nugget advantage with his shooting, and if he keeps it up he will help loosen up the paint. He also had a nice defensive stand against James when a creative play by the Cavaliers left the two of them alone at the top of the arch. James drove to the top of the key to put up an ugly shot with a hand in his face. Note: Kenyon has been defending James again since he returned to the game at 4:40.
1:33 Both teams are trying to get the ball down low again, four straight plays, two by each team, all successful. And Shaq still can’t make a free throw. (0-4 FT)
0:04 Nuggets run an isolation with Melo for their last play of the quarter. It earns a foul on Anderson Varejao. Melo can’t convert one. He has shot well from the line tonight (6-9 FT), but everyone else is perfect (4-4) so if Melo picks up his next 5 or so our average will be fine.
0:00 Cavaliers don’t have the time to run a high percentage play, desperation 3 pointer by Parker under duress.
End Half. Nuggets 52-44
The Nuggets are playing a fairly stiffling defense, although the Cavaliers seem to have backed away from what has been most successful for them. Our defense was geared to take James out of the game (which every defense must be geared up for these days), so the pick & roll away from James was solid. Since they moved off of that the only consistent offensive option has been Shaq down low.  James is having an off night due to great one-on-one defense by Melo and pretty good one-on-one defense by Kenyon. Of course, the Cavaliers are trying to help the Nuggets out in every way possible at the FT line (7-15), and we are crushing them on the boards (Nuggets 27-Cavs 19). If the Nuggets keep James on lockdown and figure out a way to stop Shaq this will be an easy win.
The Nuggets on offense are settling for jump shots a little more than I would like, but they are hitting them at least (Guards: 12-24 FG). The Front Court could be better from the floor (8-24 FG), but with 10 points out of 13 from the FT line they are still respectable.  Melo and Nene need to get it going (Melo 2-11 FG, Nene 1-6 FG).  All in all a good half. The highly touted Melo vs. James showdown is turning into a “who’s got the better supporting cast†game.
3rd Quarter Plays & Analysis
9:56 Melo is on James in the opening minutes and the Cavaliers are sticking with the isolations. Melo is doing well forcing James into jump shots, but James is making them.
11:25-7:58 Cavaliers go on a 6-16 run. Nothing special about this run, nobody on either team is playing defense, but the Nuggets missed two jump shots and two lay ups. The run ends when Melo runs an Isolation against James that draws Shaq over to double team and gets Shaq to foul. Note: On the next Nuggets possession Shaq fouls Melo again which should get Shaq (4 PF) out of the game until the 4th quarter.
4:58 Cavaliers’ first lead of the second half. Mo Williams dribble-drive on Afflalo, and somehow manages to make an ugly shot go.  Time Out Nuggets
4:03 James is heating up (11 points in the quarter so far), not good news for the Nuggets. Also bad news; virtually all of the Cavaliers’ points in the quarter are high-percentage shots from the paint. The Nuggets need to pick up the defense. What is good news is that the Cavaliers are keeping the Nuggets in the game by missing free throws (11-22 FT).
2:03 Nuggets are being destroyed in the half court right now. The Cavaliers have gone back to the pick & roll away from James at a good time. The Nuggets have got to figure out a way to get the ball in the paint and keep the Cavaliers out of the paint.
00:01 Nuggets run the classic Isolation to Melo as the last play of the Quarter. Goaltending on Hickson.
End Quarter. Cavaliers 79-75
Cavs ran a pretty flawless quarter offensively and the Nuggets could not keep up. I’d be surprised if Cleveland keeps up the pace they set in the 3rd, but it did put them in control of the game.
4th Quarter Plays & Analysis
11:20 Four fouls on Varejao. That puts the two biggest members of the Cavaliers in foul trouble.
9:49 Nuggets take advantage of a bad pass on a play designed to get Varejoa alone in the paint. Melo pursued by James on the breakaway wisely dunks, taking away that pursuit block that LeBron likes.  Time Out Cavaliers.
7:44 Cavaliers up by 7 and threatening to pull away. Nuggets can’t stop James in the second half. Where has Billups been?
7:25 Varejao 5PF, go find a seat of the bench, welcome back Shaq
6:18 J.R. is finding ways to get us back in the game with incredible shooting & blocking… and then he gives it back with bad turnovers. Kenyon is our smartest fouler. He just saved a J.R. turnover for 2 Cavaliers points with his third.
5:53 Nuggets battle back. J.R. hits a wide open three to tie the game. Cleveland timeout. Getting down to the stretch. We have two young teams trying to get to the next level tied. Poise has become a factor in the game.
4:20 Nuggets trying to get Chauncey going; they have run two isolations in row for him. Both failed.
3:34 Chauncey pick & roll to Nene dunked. Tied at 96, great play.
2:59 Chauncey drive, passed to Kenyon in the left paint, dunk. Nuggets by two, great play.
2:39 James drives off the 75 degree mark on the left arch, inside of Melo, layup good, game tied, phantom foul called on Melo. First truly bad call of the game. No really… the game has been officiated exceptionally… until the closing minutes. (FT good, Cavaliers by 1)
2:26 Chauncey to Nene, give & go to Chauncey, hits from 15 feet right side 50 degrees. Nuggets by one.
2:13 Chauncey fouls Williams on a side three point try from the left corner. Missed two. Game tied.  Cavaliers get the rebound James drives two points. Cavaliers by two.
1:43 Broken play, Kenyon from right 70 degree mark hits, game tied.
1:24 James takes bad shot over Kenyon. Foul on the Cavaliers on the rebound Chauncey shooting two. (Nuggets by 2)
1:12 James drives down the center, same as always. Missed the first, tips own rebound miss, foul on the tip by Kenyon (5 PF). LeBron misses the second. Nuggets by one.
0:57 Melo isolation right side. Melo beats James. Nuggets by three.
0:48 James pull-up three made right side 45 degree mark. Game tied. Time Out Nuggets. This game is now about poise down the stretch. The Cavaliers seem to be winning on the floor right now, but they can’t make a FT to save their lives.
0:36 Chauncey thinks there’s a foul and walks out of bounds.  Cavaliers ball. Bad mistake in a crucial situation.
0:12 Cavaliers run a drive and pass to Parker in the right corner, miss.
0:01 Nuggets run Chauncey isolation for three point from right 60 degree mark, miss.
End Regulation.
Nuggets show poor poise as regulation ends, but it doesn’t burn them.  Cavaliers miss the winning shot. Both teams’ big men are in foul trouble. It will be close.
OT Plays & Analysis
4:24 Nuggets make the first possession count and earn an early turnover that gets J.R. to the line. 1 missed FT.
4:08 Cavaliers are going with Shaq underneath against Nene. Nuggets have no answer, but one foul gets rid of him so he need to be attacked on offense.
3:15 James nice shot from the top of the key, Cavaliers by one. Anthony evens it the next possession.
2:24 Cavaliers are showing commitment to Shaq down low; two plays in a row. Nene fouls (5PF) on the second. Shaq misses both.
1:58 Kenyon guards the backside of a Billups jumper. Puts the miss back, dunk. Nuggets by 3.
1:50 James drives and gets fouled, misses 1. Nuggets by two.
1:18 Isolated Melo drives and beats James from the top of the arch, Varejao steps into the paint, Melo passes to Chauncey alone in the left corner, 3 points. Good adaptation by Melo. Nuggets by 5.  Time Out Cavaliers. It seems like the Cavaliers have decided there’s no way you will beat them in the paint, which means it’s time to take smart jump shots (gulp). Poise counts.
1:12 J. R. fouls Parker at the top of the arch, 2 shots. Nuggets by three.
0:55 Nuggets run give and go, with an outlet pass to Kenyon, miss from 8 feet right side.
0:32 Nuggets give up two offensive rebounds and then turn the ball over, Cavaliers timeout. Look for James to drive.
0:23 James drives, hits, foul on Nene (6). Makes his FT. Game tied.
0:01 Melo isolation with James, jumper good from 19 feet right side 60 degrees.  Time Out Cavaliers. 1.9 seconds is not enough time for James to drive, they have to run a pass & shoot play which means James or Williams will take the shot.
0:00 They run the same play they ran against Orlando in the playoff; the pick by Williams at the top of the arch, inbound goes to James running away from the key. This time James slips and has to launch an off-balance shot from 5 feet behind the line with Aaron Afflalo harassing him, miss.
End Game. Nuggets 118-116
Nuggets & Cavaliers each played a good game, but the Nuggets had it late.
Carmelo wins the duel by making his clutch shot while James can’t get set for his. Poise. This game truly could have gone either way, though. If I had to break it down to one thing, the Cavaliers’ FT shooting was atrocious (23-40) while the Nuggets’ shooting was top notch (21-26).
James found his way in the second half (3rd triple double of the season) as he usually does, but mostly the pick & roll away from LeBron was the unstoppable play by the Cavaliers. That play resulted in the majority of James’ 15 assists. If the Nuggets meet the Cavaliers in the Finals they must find a way to stop that.
Carmelo also found his way in the second half, and is probably the reason the Nuggets were victorious tonight (13-28 FG, 13-16 FT, 40 points, 6 boards, 7 dimes, 2 blocks, +8 +/-) .  Although James outscored him (43 point), LeBron proved to be a liability with a -5 +/-. I didn’t notice until the end, but Anthony Parker proved to be the Cavaliers’ best all-around player tonight with 13 points and a game high +15 +/-.
Strategically, the Nugget spent too many plays on jump shots, but I can’t blame them since the Cavaliers’ Front Court played so close to the basket. And in any case the shots were falling so no harm no foul. The isolations the Nuggets ran were good isolations, although Varejao is one of the better defensive rotators in the league so an iso-heavy gameplan against this team in the future needs to have an outlet knifing to the net or a back-side outlet built-in to make Varejao pay. Billups had a quiet night (7-20 FG, 2-7 3-pts, 2-2 FT, 8 assists, 18 points), but a fine game after viewing the stats. He needs to shoot better when the Front Court is having so many problems.
It wasn’t a great game for the Nuggets… but it’s tough to critique a solid road win against a Conference-leading team. Not perfect, but good enough for a big win out of the All-Star Break.
