In-depth analysis: Nuggets at Warriors 1/20/10
- Image by Getty Images via Daylife
Chauncey gets the praise/stats but another guard is the real reason we won this crucial road tilt.
First things first. Congrats to Melo for his first All-Star start.
Most All-Star game fan voting is based on name recognition. To be that well-known is more of a multiyear accomplishment than a single season breakout. Earning a start usually requires no less than 3 consecutive seasons of top 5 play at your position, which is tough to do. Melo deserves all the credit in the world for this honor. If Anthony’s trend of improving play season-to-season continues, I believe he’ll get a half-dozen or so All-Star starts.
Now that he is an established All-Star starter, I’m hoping that Carmelo will take his “I can score from anywhere, at any time, in any way I want” talent and battle Kevin Durant for the 2010 H.O.R.S.E. title. The H.O.R.S.E. competition is presented by GIECO and will take place during the upcoming pre-All-Star Game festivities.
(Speaking of which, Elmer’s Glue missed another golden opportunity to sponsor the H.O.R.S.E. competition this year. Maybe in 2011.)
With that out of the way, on to the game analysis:
Do not be deceived Nuggets fans, we got lucky to be playing a bad a team (whose number we happen to have) and walk out with a win considering the way we played. The most obvious of the stat lines to confirm this:
Denver: 30-43 from the charity stripe.
That’s 69.8% free throw shooting. That’s pathetic. It’s nearly as bad as Shaq. If we had shot our normal percentage of 78.0% we would have made 34-43 and won the game handily without ever going to OT.
Yes, I know 4 points isn’t a blowout, but consider this: a four point lead going into the final minute forces up-tempo offense from the team that’s behind. Trying to score quickly leads to poor shot selection, reckless ball handling, and desperate rebound attempts.
Recklessness in turn lead to turnovers and big open areas of the court with few defenders. A four point lead with a minute left more times than not will develop into a 6-8 point lead 30 seconds later. With the ensuing foul shots, that’s an 8-12 point lead by the endgame. Last time I checked, that is a solid win. This is how close tight basketball games really are. They come down to a point here and a point there at meaningless moments of the game. Making free throws will crush a team come endgame. Missing them is masochism.
Billups tied a career high for points in this game, but his stat line is misleading:
Chauncey Billups: 11-19 FG, 6-9 3-Pt, 9-11 FT, 37 Points
Don’t get me wrong, this is a fine game for an older guard. And he certainly dominated the overtime period:
3-4 FG, 2-3 3-Pt, 2-2 FT, 10 Points in OT
But now look at his stats for regulation:
8-16 FG, 4-6 3-Pt, 7-9 FT, 27 Points in Reg (2 missed FT?, Et tu Billups?)
That’s a good game for Chauncey, but it isn’t a dominating effort. What you can’t see in the stats is that his three misses from beyond the 3-point line were terrible shot selections. Once he was under duress, another he was five feet behind the line, and the last he was not in one of his shooting spots. (After 5-6 games of watching Chauncey, you can see he is clearly better from the top of the arch and the 45 degree marks than anywhere else).
Also, everything Chauncey earned us in points he gave back in defense. Billups, Afflalo, and Lawson were all useless against both Monta Ellis (39 Points) and Stephen Curry (15 Points). Combine that with Nene’s inability to stop Cory Maggette, and you get the game we got. I give credit to Chauncey for dominating OT and winning the game, but OT is far too risky a proposition against a high-octane team like Golden State. But then, we won didn’t we? And how, you might ask?
We won this game for two clear reasons; Golden State decided Melo wouldn’t see the light of day regardless of anyone else’s scoring. (Carmelo still had 23 because, even being constantly double-teamed, Melo can score on anyone in any way at anytime.) Golden State’s game plan turned up in the stats, as our other three scorers each had above-average games: Chauncey 37; Nene 19; JR 14.
(By the way, I suspect this will be the new defensive strategy for most teams. It is obvious that, after two Player of the Month awards, taking your chances with Melo is unwise.)
The other reason for this road W is the great game that JR “Threediculous” Smith played.
I know the stats don’t do him justice: 6-15 FG, 2-6 3-Pt., 0-0 FT, 14 Points. And he certainly didn’t help at all with his D on Ellis, who had a career game. But on a night when no one else could stop the big three scorers for Golden State, he removed Curry from the game. Curry scored exactly 2 points on JR versus 13 against all other defenders. What’s more, for such an average night from our 6th man, Smith still finished +7 in the +/-. Chauncey, for all his scoring, finished only +5 overall, and all of that +5 came in OT. In the 33:00 minutes Chauncey was on the floor in regulation, he played to a stand-still with Golden State.
JR has become an excellent defender this year. His play away from the basketball on defense compared to last year is day and night. His man-to-man against fast guards has gotten both smarter and more aggressive, while he forces taller guards to alter their shots with greatly improved (and imposing) positioning to go with some ornery hand-waving that exhibits the typical JR gusto. He doesn’t get the credit he deserves for this improvement. Chauncey’s OT heroics won the game last Thursday night, but JR’s defense in regulation got Chauncey his chance in OT.
