Wed @ Panthers, Thu @ Penguins, Sat @ Blue Jackets, Mon @ Blues
Home ice advantage? Not at these ticket prices.
What do you get when you take an outstanding Goaltender, a subpar Defense, and a 4-line-deep Offense and throw them onto a sheet of ice? I have no idea, but I think they’re calling themselves the Colorado Avalanche.
Craig Anderson has proven himself to be the top free agent acquisition for any NHL team in the offseason. He regularly stares down 35+ shots, which is most definitely an indictment against the Avs’ D. But to the great credit of Anderson, the Avalanche have the 4th best record in the Western Conference.
Colorado is averaging 32.8 shots against per game, slotting them in as the 5th worst team in the NHL in that statistical category. Put simply, playoff contenders do not give up more than 30 shots a game. This is not to say that the Avalanche will fail to make the playoffs, but rather that they would be lucky to win a playoff series with such poor defense. Even with a favorable seeding, this team only gets past the second round if Craig Anderson goes all Matrix on some poor schmucks like the West-leading Sharks.
But that’s all months down the road. In the meantime, the Avalanche have a treacherous road trip to navigate. It started with a very impressive 3-0 win at Tampa Bay on Monday night.  The Avalanche killed seven (seven!) Lightning Power Plays to nudge their horrendous Penalty Kill Percentage over the Mendoza Line to a shaky 80.8%. The Avs’ tour of the Sunshine State continues…
Wed, Dec 2nd @ Florida Panthers (5:30 MST)
This game against Florida smells like an easy victory to me. Craig Anderson will be returning to play the Panthers for the first time since they decided he was not #1 goaltender material and opted to hang on to aging starter Tomas Vokoun. Florida let Craig go to Colorado via free agency, and Mr. Anderson definitely lucked out.
On Monday night Vokoun left the ice on a stretcher after getting whacked in the head by his own defenseman, Keith Ballard. After an Atlanta Thrashers goal in the first period, Ballard swung his stick at the goalpost in frustration, hitting Vokoun in the head instead. Tomas was taken to the hospital with a deep laceration on his left ear, but did not appear to suffer any concussive effect.
Craig dodged a bullet in getting out of Florida, now he gets to return to the BankAtlantic Center to face off against new Panthers’ backup goalie Scott Clemmensen. The Panthers are on a five-game slide after peaking above the .500 for the first time since the first game of the season. The Avs will take care of business, and Anderson will continue his outstanding play.
PREDICTION:Â AVALANCHE 4, PANTHERS 2
Thu, Dec 3rd @ Pittsburgh Penguins (5:30 MST)
Another East Coast game has the Avs playing two early games back-to-back, the second being their only contest versus Pittsburgh this season.
The Penguins have played very well of late, with different players logging Hat Tricks in their last two games. Mike Rupp got three of his eight goals this season on Monday in New York, and Sid Crosby scored three goals against those same Rangers at home two days before.
Pittsburgh is every inch the team that won last year’s Stanley Cup, and a win in this game would be huge for the Avalanche. Despite Colorado’s traditional dominance of Eastern Conference teams, though, I think the ‘Guins are just too hot right now to roll over at home. The Avalanche will be tired from playing the night before, and the Penguins will be rested having not played since Monday. Too much is stacked against the ‘Lanche in this one.
PREDICTION:Â AVALANCHE 2, PENGUINS 5
Sat, Dec 5th @ Columbus Blue Jackets (5:00 MST)
The Blue Jackets finally righted the ship with a 5-2 home win versus the Blues after a rough slide that saw them losing five straight games, four on the road. At home, Columbus is a force to be reckoned with, so the Avalanche had better be up for a brawl when they stroll into Nationwide Arena this Saturday afternoon.
To win this game the Avs will have to get past Steve Mason, the Columbus goaltender directly responsible for the Blue Jackets’ trip to the playoffs last season. Once they got to the postseason, the whole team dried up, and Mason was left on an island to fend off the Red Wings. Guess how that turned out. Now Mason is playing as well as ever while facing shot totals that rival Craig Anderson’s regular workload.
Look for the Avalanche to play from behind most of this game, but I like them for a comeback shootout win in Ohio.
PREDICTION:Â AVALANCHE 3, BLUE JACKETS 2 (SO)
Mon, Dec 7th @ Saint Louis Blues (6:00 MST)
Saint Louis is not a very good overall team, but they hang in almost every game they play. They can be counted on to wreak havoc on divisional rivals Detroit & Nashville, and they will certainly spoil the best laid plans of some very good teams throughout the season.
To avoid being a victim of the Blues’ uncanny ability to match up against better teams to the bitter end, the Avalanche are going to have to play fast and loose and hope for the best. Mr. Anderson will need to be on top of his game, and the Avalanche will have to put together some semblance of a cohesive defense in the third period.
I know it’s a wacky prediction, but I have this feeling that Wojtek Wolski is going to open up a can of Polish Whoopass on the Blues. His combination of size and speed will be too much for the Blues’ D, and Double W will roll for two or three scores.
PREDICTION:Â AVALANCHE 4, BLUES 3
WEEK 9 PREDICTION: Â 3-1
**Bonus Coverage**
Rough in the Rough
Not all free agent pickups are diamonds in the rough like Craig Anderson. The Avs wisely dumped another offseason acquisition, D-man Tom Priessing, after he came back from a preseason injury and spent several games watching plays move very quickly around, through and past him.
Priessing simply could not keep up with the raw speed of today’s NHL, and the result was a minus-6 in four games played this season. The Avs placed him on waivers and 22-year-old Kyle Cumiskey has been getting his ice time.
Hopefully the roster shuffling on defense will also result in the young Ryan Wilson joining the cadre of Colorado rookies being pressed into consistent service. For what it’s worth, I think that Wilson is going to be an All-Star for the Avalanche in years to come. He hits like an old-school defender, but has an excellent presence in the offensive zone to go with a surprising scoring instinct.
Getting Ruslan Salei back from injury helps the Avs’ D a lot, but getting young legs into game situations (as was the case with Wilson for a couple of stretches this season) is the way to playoff success for Colorado.
Home-Ice Blues
The Avalanche are playing better on the road than they are at home. Why is that? Perhaps lingering in the basement of the league in home attendance has something to do with it.
The fact that tickets are outrageously priced has robbed the Avalanche of some of their home-ice advantage, as half-full arenas just don’t generate enough noise in those critical moments.
Perfect at home in October, the Avalanche lost 4 of 7 at home in November. Granted, most of the month was forgettable for Colorado, but the Avs seem to be playing better with their backs against the wall on unfriendly ice.
