Helton owns the position, but what about the backup role?
Todd Helton at first base.
Editor’s Note: This is the first in our season of Roundtable Discussions about the Rockies this offseason. Our plan is to have a discussion about every position on the team, with the series wrapping up just in time for Spring Training. Today’s discussion centers around the face of the franchise, Todd Helton at 1B, and the discussion is between ProSportsColorado.com writers Jason Ackerman, Ian Cerveny, and long-lost contributor Dan Olson.
Jason:
This is probably one of the easiest positions to analyze on the team, along with shortstop. The job is Todd’s as long as he continues to produce, and in 2009, produce he did, batting .325 with 86 RBIs and 15 homeruns. In addition, he posted a .998 fielding percentage and played in 153 games, and added 2 pinch hit appearances. Not bad for a guy that spent most of the previous season out of commission, and was widely regarded as finished. Nothing could be further from the truth– the way Todd looked in 2009, he could very easily finish out the remaining 2 years on his contract. If that is indeed the case, look for Todd to continue Joe Sakic-style– one year deals until he’s finally convinced it’s over. But that’s looking way ahead.
Ian:
No argument on the starter; Todd Helton is The Man at 1B, and he had a nice renaissance at the plate in ’09. But I don’t think he can be expected to play 150 games in 2010 and be effective late in the season and in the playoffs. If the Rocks stay competitive in the first half of the season, we should see Todd getting more than a few games off.
Dan:
First Base is the one position where all the problems seem to be long term problems. Unless Todd gets injured in which case we are in deep trouble. I don’t think Todd will reproduce what he did last year, but I don’t see him falling too far off either. And you’re right, he’s the first baseman as long as he’s here and producing. He’ll make $19.1M this year unless we exercise his $4.6M buyout and I can’t imagine we would, and next year it’s actually cheaper to pay his contact then buy him out, so Todd will see his $141M contact mature. Good for him, it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
Ian:
The toughest part of Todd’s job to duplicate will be his defense. As important as he was in challenging opposing pitchers (gotta love those high-pitch-count at-bats) and coming through with the occasional clutch hit, the fact is that the Rockies do not possess a stellar defensive first basement to take over for Todd when he retires or succumbs to injury (knock, knock.) Giambi is serviceable, Atkins is serviceable, Ian Stewart could fill in, but Helton has anchored some incredible defensive infields in the last few years (the best in the history of baseball in 2007.) Finding a consistent bat to fill in Todd’s spot in the rotation is going to be an easier task than filling the hole in the infield. And this team’s pitching staff has been built to generate ground balls for our fantastic infielders to feast on.
Jason
The real intrigue for me in the 2010 season at first base is not Todd – you can expect Todd to play, and even with a reduced workload he’ll still see at least 125 games, maybe more. The intrigue for me is in the backup. We’ll deal with Atkins in a couple weeks at 3B, and I don’t see him as a viable backup here, he’s simply too expensive. My only question is whether the Rockies will play true to recent form and dig up one of the young guys from the system to hang out at first base. At one point in time, the heir apparent appeared to be Joe Koshansky, but he was waived prior to the 2009 season and is now in the Brewers organization (backing up Fielder? how is that better for him, unless Fielder leaves for more money someplace else?).
Ian:
There were rumors prior to last season that Atkins was the long-term solution at 1B once Todd left. He’s seen a few years in the majors, has a quick glove & a strong arm, and has shown that he can produce at the plate. Whether Garret’s dismal 2009 season will prevent him from being a helper at 1B will be determined by his value in the trade market (which declined with his batting average over the course of last season,) and by his attitude coming into spring training. I thought Atkins looked like his old self in the last few weeks of the ’09 season, and I would love to see him return to form in ’10. Ian Stewart is an above-average power-hitting third baseman with room to improve, and may well be the starter at 3B next season if Atkins can’t step up.
Dan:
Garrett Atkins is done in Denver. He’ll never clear arbitration having made $7M last year to not load up on RBI’s. And if he goes to arbitration we’ll never tender a qualifying offer. And since he’ll hit the open market, some team will think he just had an off year and offer $7M+ to have him not load up on RBI’s in their ballpark. I hear the Mets might be done with Delgado.
Jason:
Will Giambi come back? He sure seemed to love playing here, and the spark he provided off the bench was undeniable. Maybe he can teach these young hitters a thing or two.
Ian:
Giambi may be tough to sign, as I guarantee he won’t be getting Oakland money here in Colorado. The ideal solution is a productive Atkins filling in for Todd at 1B whenever possible, and Stewart coming into his own at 3B in the process.
Dan:
Jason Giambi would be a worthwhile risk in my opinion. Fan fave, and probably fairly cheap for his talents, if it’s made clear he’s playing a backup role. With his resume, skill set, and duties as Todd’s backup, I’d offer $3M and let myself get talked up to $5, maybe go as high as $7 if someone else gets me into a bidding war. Throw in a $50,000 bonus for 500 PA and I you get a pretty decent left-handed bat off the bench who could take 50ish starts for the old man.
Utility Infielders could fill the gap too. Clint Barmes and Eric Young, JR. would be just fine with 50 starts each if Todd go down or Jason goes somewhere else. Clint is arbitration eligable and I would definetly pay the $3M-$3.5 to keep him. EYJ is still in the rookie pay scale, which mean every business man’s dream comes true, cheap labor.
Ian:
To be honest, I am far more interested in seeing anybody develop at 1B (unless Prince Fielder is secretly being shipped to Denver in a very sturdy crate at the end of the 2010 season) than seeing Jason Giambi play any defense… at all. Giambi is a great role player, a huge clutch bat, and by all accounts a very scary man from the POV of an opposing pitching staff. But the future of the Rockies’ defense lies in working on Todd’s replacement now. If Dan Ortmeier makes a good showing at spring training, and Garret Atkins fails to show up at all, I say do what it takes to get Ortmeier into some games. He had a great 62 games in San Francisco in 2007, so the talent is there. Maybe a little spritz of Coors Field Magic will turn him productive again.
Dan:
Minor league I see two bad options, Matt Repec (0.296, 11 HR, 62 RBIs) and Jeffrey Cunningham (0.249, 9 HR, 52 RBIs), both with Modesto. Repec is obviously the better stat-wise but he’s a little long in the tooth at 26 to make his first major league start. Cunningham is the right age at 23 but he might not have the stuff with only 52 RBIs. In the majors, first basemen must get RBIs, especially as a backup. Bear in mind that both these two play for AA Modesto Nuts. If you can’t hit .300 in AA, your probably not ready for the majors.
Another possible solution at 1st: Apparently washed up 1st basemen who we can extend no risk spring training invitations to. The list this year is long:
Rich Aurilla
Russell Branyan
Tony Clark
Carlos Delgado
Ross Gload (My personal favorite for Todd’s backup spot)
Jim Thome (Shut-up, it could happen and not be stupid)
Javier Valentin
Dmitri Young
No less than 4 of the aboved mentioned will be out of baseball next year, and surely one or two will contribute to their presective signing team. I say we give 2-3 spring training invites and see if we get lucky. The rest of the free agent market for first basemen will undoubtedly be too expensive to ride the pine for 120 games, so I won’t even go into it.
Jason:
If you ask me – first base is a done deal. Todd will get the bulk of the starts, with Giambi behind him (assuming he doesn’t get a DH job in the AL), unless one of the kids impresses at spring training this year. And if Todd gets hurt, look for a guy like Ortmeier (.295, 73 RBI) to step up and fill the roster spot.
Well, that’s our extremely long-winded wrapup of the first base position – our first Rockies Roundtable of the off-season – next week we’ll tackle the enigma that is Clint Barmes at second base.
