Nuggets vs Mavericks Conference Semifinal Preview
A cursory glance at the Conference Semifinal series between the Denver Nuggets and the Dallas Mavericks gives you the impression that these teams are simply going to work to outscore each other on the way to the Conference Finals. But this series will be defined by which team’s defense can find consistency in the second round.
Both the Nuggets and the Mavericks bullied their way through the first round with impressive 4-1 series wins. Denver blew out the offensively-challenged Hornets, thrice resorting to resting starters in the fourth quarter of games that were over at the end of the third. Dallas fielded occasional challenges from a Spurs team missing its most dependable scoring threat (Manu Ginobili). By double-teaming Tony Parker, the Mavs defied Tim Duncan to beat them on his own, and the aging star was not up to the task.
Now the teams roll into Denver with two collective heads full of steam, and firing on five of six cylinders respectively. Despite the first round smack-downs, neither team received outstanding performances from their biggest scorers. Dirk Nowitzki struggled to find a rhythm, and the Spurs worked overtime keeping him out of the paint. Carmelo Anthony hit a few hot streaks that propelled the Nuggets to impressive offensive runs, but he was a catalyst not a finisher in the first round largely due to the Hornets’ stout defense. Expect both players to outshine their teammates in a more open run ‘n gun game-plan featuring two offensively dynamic rosters.
Therein lies the quandary for the teams’ coaches; how do we slow them down? The difference in this series is likely to come down to defensive bench play, and the Nuggets definitely have the edge. Chris Andersen was second in the league in blocks in limited playing time, and his fanatically energetic defense demands that opposing teams change their natural approach to scoring. With JR Smith lending Denver’s second team a healthy helping of offense, the Nuggets’ bench will be able to challenge the Mavericks on both sides of the ball. While Dallas does have equally dangerous scoring threats off the bench in Jason Terry and Jose Juan Barea, they are severely lacking in defensive depth. The Mavs will have enough trouble stopping the Nuggets’ first team offense. Beyond starting center Erick Dampier, Dallas does not have a player capable of defending the paint against Denver’s many low-post threats.
This will not be a short series, though. Dallas plays extraordinarily well at home, but Denver has home-court advantage as the West’s second seed. The Nuggets may steal one game on the road, but definitely not two. What’s more, Denver’s regular-season sweep (4-0) of the Mavericks was a bit misleading, as three victories came by a combined total of seven points. Expect this series to go the distance, with Denver outlasting the Mavericks in a seven-game slug-fest.
