Close as They Come
I have lost sleep. No, seriously, I have lost sleep over this series. I just don’t know how to call it. The teams match up so evenly on paper, and in the real world an undermanned Avs squad lost four games to the Red Wings during the regular season. But this is certainly not that Colorado team, and while the Red Wings have looked soft at times the Avalanche has steadily seemed more sure of themselves, more capable offensively defensively and in net, over the course of the last couple months of hockey. And so my instincts tell me to take the coward’s exit in predicting these first four games by calling home victories all around. I am not one to fight instinct. And in a matchup as close as this one, the last change that is afforded to the home team becomes a huge factor. Here goes…
Game One 4/24 @ Detroit Red Wings
If we are going to win a game in Detroit, this one is the most likely to be it. I believe that the Avalanche will come out of the gates more fired up, but the Wings can score at any time. If Colorado can get up early they have a chance, but if Detroit scores first it will become almost impossible for the Avs to come back/keep pace. Prove me wrong boys. (Do it in overtime, that’ll really piss the Wing Faithful off.) Avs lose 3-4.
Game Two 4/26 @ Detroit Red Wings
You’ll notice that all of my predictions will be for high-scoring games. This has less to do with defense or goaltending and more to do with the vast expanses of open ice that I believe this matchup will produce. Barring the Wings playing fully dominant puck-control hockey, these games should be back and forth across the neutral zone all game long. Game Two in Detroit in the Western Semi-Finals… well, I’d be a fool to pick the road team. And I am only occasionally a fool. Avs lose 2-3.
Game Three 4/29 vs Detroit Red Wings
At some point in this series the Avalanche offense will explode for five goals against EITHER Chris Osgood or Dominek Hasek. I don’t see Mike Babcock being dumb enough to put a goaltender as mistake-prone as Hasek in net against the Avs, so we’ll say that on April 29th, 2008 Chris Osgood gets scored on five times by the Colorado Avalanche. Don’t forget to pick up a fresh bottle of whiskey. (That’s a personal note, feel free to disregard.) Avs win 5-3.
Game Four 5/1 vs Detroit Red Wings
Rubber game? Not quite. I expect this series to go seven games, and that means the only true rubber game is Numero Siete in Detroit on May 7th. Don’t hold your breath, that’s a good way to kill brain cells. A better way is to toss back a few cold brews and enjoy the two weeks of playoff hockey between now and then. Avs win Game Four 4-3.
prosportscoloradodotcom
04.2525.2008 8:01 am
First off Ian, I have to say your prediction skills are starting to creep me out. Though, was that really how you expected 4-3 to go down? I guess hitting the score is hard enough.. great prediction.
While I am inclined to agree on the home team theory, I have to say I like how the Avs responded last night. Yeah, Theo blew one, the defense blew one, the team just got plain beat on another, and unlucky on yet another. But after dropping to a 4-1 deficit, to score 2 more and have solid chances at more… was encouraging. I didn’t expect the win, but it didn’t look like they were that far off. Thing about the Wings, is that they are no Minnesota. In the last series, the Avs got in some trouble, and adapted to Minnys game, and prevailed. They quickly need to do the same here: adapt to a wildly different sort of hockey. Detroit is a maniacal possession team, with puck handling skills and skating skills that far outclass MN. If the boys can adapt, shore up the defensive leaks, and play aggressive, offensive hockey, I think the teams can match up just fine. Oh and by the way, it would sure be nice to have Forsberg mixing it up a bit.
I think your predictions might still hold, though I’m not so sure that they can’t sneak out with a game 2 victory. I smell a split, with another split happening here at home.
04.2525.2008 8:17 am
It’s funny you should mention a split for each team’s home games. That was almost how I called it, and I would have put us on winning game two in Detroit in that case. There is a decent chance that we win Saturday’s game, but we’ll need whichever goaltender that ends up in net to play tough. Maybe if Budaj had started in net (and that sky-puck hadn’t dropped into the net for the third goal) we would have won this game 3-2. But maybe Detroit would have kept pressing and gotten goals another way.
You are right, we will adapt as we did in the second period of Game One, and we’ll win our games. I still expect a seven game series however it pans out. And one more note… it was soooo refreshing to see all that open ice after playing Minnesota. It was like moving from a studio apartment into a three bedroom house. I actually took a deep breath early in the game and thought, “Ahhhhh, breathing room. Now let’s see some scoring.”
04.2525.2008 5:47 pm
I was encouraged by Budaj’s play for sure.
I enjoyed the open ice too, but having been so accustomed to the Minnesota style game, it freaked me out at first. Every time Detroit rushed down the ice, I found myself cringing in anticipation of the coming pain. That was a tough game because there was not any flow, until the Avs adapted late in the game.
I anticipate enjoying the next game much more. Hopefully that enjoyment is rewarded by the Avs stealing away the win.