And the picture becomes clearer

I have come out my winter sabbatical once again to a glorious new spring, and as always will I inform the masses as to the nature of baseball and the Rockies chances therein.  The current image I will intend to clarity is the Roster.  I’ve almost got it figured out, which means Hurdle should have it in a month or two.The Starting Pitching Staff :

Jeff Francis (L):  The big pitching fearless lefty now has his rightful place at the top of the order.  Make no mistake, barring injury, he should be in the conversation for the NL Cy Young this year.  His strike outs were low for the Spring league, but’s that’s typical for most #1 pitcher because they don’t get the innings in the spring.   His ERA is even better than last year’s and way below the league average for #1’s.  I see 18-22 wins in 30-35 starts.

Aaron Cook (R):  He had 2 bad outing boost his ERA but his strike outs are through the roof.  Plus his sinker will begin working once he gets to the thin air of Planet Coors.  15-20 wins in 30-35 starts, plus 3-5 complete games. 

Umbaldo Jimenez (R):  The fastest backdoor cutter in league for a starter is what this guy brings, what he lacks is the control.  Way too many walks in the Spring league, combined with the inability to deal with baserunners spells trouble.  Still has the ability to strike people out though.  I’m noticing a trend with our starters, maybe we won’t have as many baserunners this year.  Can’t quite peg this guy, 8-15 wins in 30ish starts. 

Mark Redman (R):  And we find our weak link.  Don’t get me wrong this guy is the best one we got, he was lights out in the Spring: 11 Ks vs 1 BB in 18.2 innings.  His problem is consistency.  He’ll be great for a month, terrible for a month; that’s how he is.  I don’t see him making it the entire season as a starter.  5-10 wins in 20ish starts.

Franklin Morales (L):  I am actually really excited about Franklin being our #5.  One, because he’s another lefty in the rotation, and two because he’s gotten better since last year in just about every category, especially in dealing with baserunners.  Once again, way to many walks.  10-15 wins in 30ish starts. 

Jason Hirsh (R):  Currently on IR.  He’ll be back in about 2 months.   I think he will replace Redman by then.  Who know how he be though, lets say he’ll win 2-10 games in 15-25 starts.  Another possibility is Greg Reynold (R) who might be ready to go by midseason.

All together I see 60-75 wins coming from our starters, decent.  Things I like are the balance more towards youth than experience, and putting Redman between the two rookies was a brilliant move by Hurdle ’cause it gives our bullpen a break if they both go through rookie funks at the same time.  I love the number of options for starters which you’ll see when I do the Relievers.  I dislike putting the righties next to each other and the lefties next to each other. It has worked in the past and backfired in the past.  I probably would have put Franklin as #3 and Jimenez as #5, but then Franklin would be pitching against #3 pitchers and he isn’t as ready for that as Jimenez is so I see what Hurdle is thinking.

The Relief Pitching Staff:

Manny Corpas (R) (Closer):  I smell an All-star birth.  Manny is ready to become the premiere closer in the league.  The guy bleeds ice, I tell you.  Barring injury, minimum 35 saves, but probably closer to 50.  Maximum 3 blown saves.

Brian Fuentes (L):  Shame we can’t send two relief pitchers to the All-Star game.  I don’t see us losing a lot of games after the 8th inning.  40-50 Holds, with Maximum 5 blown saves. 

Luis Vizcaino (R):  The Free agent trade with the Yankees brought us Luis.  He’ll start the season in the 7th inning spot.  I’m not too terribly excited but I’m not disappointed either.  I suspect he’ll lose it some point but with a shot to gain it back again later.  I don’t know we’ll see.

Matt Herges (R):  In my opinion, this is our 7th inning guy to start, but Hurdle doesn’t listen to me.  Once again though, not that strong a set up guy, so I understand what Hurdle’s doing.

Taylor Bucholtz (R):  If this guy stays as good during the season as he was in the Spring, we’ll coast to the Division.  15 Ks vs. 1 BB and 2 runs allowed in 13.1 innings of work.  Also, could be a starter in a pinch. 

Kip Wells (R):  Solid situational Reliever.  Experienced, works well with inherited runners.  Also, could start in a pinch. 

The final reliever spot isn’t set in stone but it will be Micah Bowie (L):  For 2 reasons, we desperately need a situational lefty and his competition for the spot, Ryan Speier (R), is still under his rookie contract, meaning he can be assigned directly to AAA while Bowie would have to clear waivers.  Bowie’s solid though, not as good as Speier, but we do desperately need a lefty.

The 8th and 9th inning guys are great and we’ve got good situational pitching and decent starter converts.  Two problems:  1. We lack lefty relief and other teams will try to advantage of this every game.  Of course with Brian in the 8 spot, this could backfire on them quite frequently, so we’ll see what happens.  2.  We lack a good 7th inning set up guy.  Maybe Luis or Herges will step up, but I think the 7th will be a tough inning for us this year.

The remaining pitchers are Speier who will be optioned to Colorado Springs, Ramon Ramirez (R) who was trade to the Royals for a player to be named, Josh Towers (R) and Jose Capellan(R) who must clear waivers to stay with the team.  I don’t either will which is a shame because we could use both if the injury bug bites.

The Catchers:

Yorvit Torrealba (R):  One of the biggest signings this off-season in the league was Yorvit, because he is a great pitch caller who speaks Spanish.  The “Dos Fuegos” will have great need of him.  Also, his hitting was up for last spring and he gunned down 40% of attempted stolen bases.  Maybe his shoulder has finally healed up from his surgury.   Probably will bat 7th.

Chris Iannetta (R):  The future franchise catcher is a little better hitter this year and gunned down 47% of attempted stolen bases, but isn’t quite ready to be the #1 catcher yet.  His power is way up though, he finished the Spring with 4 HR and a .857 SLG.  Also, likely to bat 7th.

Humberto Cota (R):  Had a great spring but not as good as the other two.  Cota will be back if we have an injury.

Edwin Bellorin (R):  Not quite ready yet.  Couldn’t find his swing this Spring.

Catcher was the problem point on the team last year, it doesn’t look to be that again.  Hitting will still be at the back of the lineup (and the bottom of the league) but defensively there are only a few tandems in the league.

The Infield:

Troy Tulowitzki (SS) (R):  The rookie of the year snub got the biggest contract of any player with 1 year experience.  He deserves it.  Bonafide team leader, gold glove quality SS, lead the team in HR during the Spring with 6, hitting above .300 for the first time during the Spring, and seems to have learned to steal bases this off-season.  He’ll be move to #2 in the lineup to replace Kaz. 

Todd Helton (1B) (L):  Todd is back and seems better than last year.  4 HR, hitting .400 in the Spring, OBP over .500 in the Spring (that’s right, when Todd came to the plate it was actually more likely he would end up on base then be put out), and 1 error in 130 chances.  He’ll be move to #3 as that OBP make’s him more valuable to ride Holiday’s HRs.

Garett Atkins (3B) (R):  BA is a little low for him again this year.  Let’s cross our fingers and hope last year’s April and May don’t repeat.  Power’s still there and he had 10 RBIs.  He’ll keep his #5 spot.

Jayson Nix (2B) (R):  My god do we have power in our starters.  Nix won the second base battle with his fielding (1 error in 58 chances) and power hitting (3 HRs).  Also stole 2 bags and was never caught.  Hitting needs to improve, Coors Field will help though.  He’ll get the 8th spot.

Jeff Baker (UI) (R): Billed as a power hitter who struggles at fielding, he won a job struggling at hitting and playing error free baseball at three infield possitions (1B, 2B, 3B).   Also, while his hitting was down, his RBIs were up with 10, so presumably he had a few sacrifices.

Clint Barmes (UI) (R):  Clint made the team as a pinch hitter.  He finally found his swing again, batting .297.  He’s the one most in danger of being sent back down to AAA.

The odd men out are: Omar Quintanilla (UI)(L), who was beat out by Clint because he can’t play 3B, Ian Stewart (3B)(L) and  Joe Koshansky (1B) (L) who just could gets their bats going.  I suspect once both learn to swing again they will make appearances, and Q will be back to at some point.  Last, Marcus Giles (2B) (R) turned out to a bust and was released.

The starters might be the best hitting infield in the NL, and we’ll see about Nix, but if he pans out maybe the best fielding infield too.  The big glaring problem to me is we have but 1 player who can play SS.  Tulo shouldn’t play 162+ strait games in his second season unless he’s the next Cal Ripken.  I know if anyone could do it, it would be him, but I’d still like a backup plan.  Also, the general rule of thumb for baseball teams is speed up the middle, power on the sides.  Maybe Tulo will be stealing bases, but no one else in the infield will be.  The good news is any one in the infield can hit it out so stealing bases might not be an issue.

The Outfielders:

Willy Taveras (CF) (R):  One guy who can’t get hurt any more because we are too slow without him.  Willy snagged 9 out of 11 bags, and played error free baseball for all of Spring.  His hitting is down but still has a pretty good OBP.  He’ll keep his #1 spot.

Matt Holiday (LF) (R):  The MVP snub looks like it just made Holiday better.  Believe it or not his batting looks better than last year, error free baseball throughout Spring Training, and he even gunned down a guy at home on a sacrifice fly.   He’ll move to 4th in the order because his bat is more dangerous and less consistant than Todd’s, also because you don’t want to start a lineup with 3 righties.

Brad Hawpe (RF) (L):  Strike outs are down!  Finally!  Brad looks much more patient than last year and with all the righties in the lineup he will be sure to get plenty of opportunity.  Another benefit to lowering the strike outs is BA(.382), OBP(.475), and SLG(.941) all go up.  That SLG is through the roof.  He’ll keep the 6th spot and I think it’ll be a bad spot of opposing pitchers this year.

Ryan Spilborghs (OF) (R):  Not that amazing in the Spring but not that bad either.  Hitting is about were it should be except the power.  He’ll make the team because he’s a fan favorite and he can play all three outfield positions.  I expect him to find his power before long.

The last spot isn’t set yet but most likely will be Scott Podsednik (OF) (L):  Or at least it should be if Hurdle has half a brain.  Partly because he’s the only person besides Willy who can definitely steal a base, partly because we need another lefty in the dugout to pinch hit.  

The other possibility for the final spot is Cory Sullivan (OF) (L):  Because he’s a lefty.  But Cory’s hitting is way down.  The issue is he’s getting paid 1 million this year to sit in AAA, so I thing Cory might be trade if Podsednik works out. 

Seth Smith (OF) (L): Seth was a good luck charm for the Rockies last year and definitely a clutch hitter, but he’s still in his rookie contract so he can be optioned to AAA directly without dealing with waivers.  He’ll be back the moment someone starts to play poorly or gets hurt. 

One think that stands out to me is the lack of lefties in the lineup.  Right now the starters are:

R, R, L, R, R, L, R, R, P

This is pretty easy to work around as an opposing manager.  Todd and Brad should have big season but everyone else will be SOL.  We do have a few on the bench so we can try some cool pinch hits, but it will be tough.  Also, I don’t know if I’ve mentioned this but we’re kind of a slow team.  We are stacked in the power hitting department but only 2 maybe three guy can steal a bases and 1 of them is a bench player.  The line up will still be one of the best everyday lineups in the league though and they will probably bust bullpen for about 20-25 wins. 

Average everybody’s wins and add it all up, I have us winning 91 games.  That’s good enough for a playoff birth and probably good enough for a division championship.  The young pitching might not turn out, the lack of lefties could bite us, and injuries could beat us, but that’s about it.  In the Pro league, we got one of the better chances. 

I’ll do some research on our first foe and get back to you in a day.