The Avalanche and the Myth of the New NHL
At the end of what should be the most disappointing season in Colorado Avalanche history, I find that most of my fellow Hockey Nuts are not disappointed but optimistic. And not casually or cautiously optimistic either, but wildly, passionately optimistic. This is not to say that it is at all surprising that in Neo-Hockeytown, USA the Avalanche’s first playoff miss in their twelve years of existence would be met with a renewed sense of the team’s vitality. They did, after all, win 14 games out of 18 in March and April, a stretch that saw only two regulation losses. For a team that finished fully recovered (in spirit if not in the standings) from an up and down season marred by shoddy goaltending and alternately solid and porous defense, the run to the playoffs was marked with an aggressive defense, the cautious hope that the young Peter Budaj could end up a franchise goaltender, the continued remarkable play of (thank you for giving us at least one more year) Joe Sakic, and a sometimes awe-inspiring offensive machine that consistently scored when it needed to. So why then am I afraid to answer to myself the most crucial question of all; can this Avalanche team win a Stanley Cup?
Since the NHL lockout of ’04-’05, hockey has purportedly taken a turn away from its rough roots and into a 21st century sports scene that demands lots of scoring, seamless movement, and a large-market champion every few years. The crackdown on free-hand defensive actions and interference away from possession along with a pass-friendly neutral zone and an influx of speedy international forwards (though met with the maturation of several lightening-quick international goaltenders) certainly has increased game speed and scoring. But take even a passing glance at the playoff series that have determined the Cup winners the last two years and you will not see a story of one team or another’s multiple scoring lines dominating weary opposing defenses late in series, but the same great, gritty hockey that has won championships in years past. By the time the speed demon Sabres got to Ottawa in this year’s Conference Finals they had already been knocked around by two less skilled but tougher teams in the Islanders and Rangers, and had suffered two embarrassing home losses to a Senators team that boasted a single competent scoring line and a defense that was certainly solid but nothing spectacular. The Senators merely buckled down, played tough along the boards, finished their checks, and dispatched a thoroughly beaten Sabres team in Buffalo in five games. To their credit the Sabres played hard to the bitter end, but they simply could not match the physical play of Ottawa over the course of a two game stretch much less a series. The Devils, Sharks, and Flames found their own velocity offenses failing under similar circumstances. Close games reigned supreme in most of these series, as they will during Cup Season, but it was always the tougher team that closed out games and series throughout the march to the Cup. The Anaheim Ducks’ careful handling of the Wings capped a Conference Playoffs that saw even Detroit’s traditional Possession Hockey dominance wilt under the pressure of Anaheim’s attack first ask questions later approach to both offense and defense. But according to the official NHL press line, scrappy hockey teams were supposed to be on their way out by now. Teams like the 05-06 Oilers and 06-07 Ducks were supposed to descend to the hockey basement, not rough up opposing teams with breathtaking goaltending, tenacious defense, and opportunistic scoring. And it was supposed to be teams like the Sabres and Predators of the past couple of seasons that were supposed to outskate and outscore opponents on their way to hoisting the cup. Instead it was the calculated stretching of defenses that won it all for the Hurricanes, and vicious, turnover-creating defense to transition scoring that won it for the Ducks. It leaves one to wonder; where is the new NHL that was promised, and if it does come a-knocking could we ever love it as much?
My opinion is that the “New NHL” is predominantly a myth designed to glorify scoring teams in the eyes of newer or more casual hockey fans who don’t know any better. Certainly, change will come, but it will be much slower in coming than ownership and league management would like. And the advantage of offense over defense will never be greater than a hair’s breadth. What’s more, great defense will always win championships more readily than great offense, no matter the sport. (Somebody remind me of the last time an MLB team won it all without starting pitching and a reasonably consistent bullpen, or an NFL team took the title without solid run defense, or an NBA team prevailed without well-coordinated, businesslike team D… and more than a little bit of help from the league office and referees. Really, I’m not much of a sports historian. I’d like to know.) The only measure that the NHL could possibly take that would give skating teams a definitive advantage over teams ripe with hard-nosed grinders and consistent defenseman who seemingly want it more (and are willing to murder you and every teammate you’ve had since you were six along the boards to get it) would be to go to International rink proportions. The brand of hockey played in Olympic competition is inherently more uninhibited and free. Skaters flourish, defensemen scramble to keep up, and forecheckers have to work twice as hard to take the right angle to the puck. And it is amazing, fantastic, downright spectacular hockey to be had every four years. (Specifically every four years because Olympic hockey takes place during a break in the NHL season when national teams can play with a full roster, unlike the annual competitions where teams have to hope that their star players make an early exit from the NHL playoffs and can join their home teams for the latter half of a tournament.) But it will never match, in the eyes of most North American hockey fans, the tight checking in corners and along the boards, or the precision passing that gains the zone, or the elevated saucers that float from tape to tape just beyond the crease. And even a ten goal game played on the big ice, contentious from beginning to an overtime end, could never compare to the outright ferocity, hard-hitting physical testing of opponents, and battle of shear willpower that characterizes North American hockey. That comparison is especially true in the elevated environment of the Stanley Cup Playoffs; the greatest test of sporting mettle on the planet.
So the Colorado Avalanche went into their first playoff-less off-season and began signing soon-to-be free agents to new contracts immediately. Sakic, Guite, Parker, Leopold, Sauer, and McCormick have all been re-signed, and Jaroslav Hlinka, a twelve-year veteran of the Czech Elite League and potential third line forward, was signed to a conditional deal that affords him a larger paycheck if he does not fall to the minors during the season. These are not the actions of a team concerned about the potency of its roster or its chances in the post-season. But as tough as the Avalanche were during that stretch run, there are still big questions concerning their defense, goaltending, and toughness as they relate to winning a playoff series, much less four playoff series consecutively. As difficult as it would be to unload the league’s best and most expensive backup goaltender this off-season, it looks like the Avalanche will be hanging on to Jose Theodore so long as Peter Budaj remains inconsistent and unproven. (Although, withstanding pressure and maintaining necessary poise in the context of playoff hockey is a very similar situation to the circumstances Budaj found himself in during the late-season run for a playoff spot. This bodes well for our young goalie.) The defensive corps shaped up nicely at the end of the season, including the noteworthy performances of Brett Clark and Kurt Sauer who brutalized opponents everywhere from the boards to neutral ice to right in front of the opposition bench. Our offense provides no question marks, with the continued leadership of veterans like Sakic, Brunette, and Hejduk coupled with what will surely be the even more impressive playmaking ability of our talented youth core; Stastny, Wolski, and Guite. All of these positive notes aside, the Avalanche will still need to get tougher, and that likely means looking for a stout veteran defender (preferably one who makes fewer defensive zone turnovers than Karlis Skrastins) some time before the middle of the upcoming season. Since the Lightning won the Cup pre-lockout, it has actually proven more difficult for a run-and-gun offensive team to win playoff games. It is as though the old guard of hockey is making a final stand at the very proposal of a New Age. Perhaps the Avalanche are well suited for the potential shift towards offense, but old habits die hardest and any battle for the soul of hockey, especially one between brute force and entertaining finesse, will be a nasty one. My prediction; the greatest hope for the Avalanche and their Eastern Conference counterparts the Sabres is that the game and the teams are moving concurrently in the same direction. If either or both teams can maintain their current rosters, improve on defense, and find some scrappers to fill out their team durability while the NHL slowly shifts to the other side of that imaginary dividing line between defensive dominance and offensive dominance, then you will see these two teams play in a Cup Championship Series in the next few years. Otherwise I fear we will see a couple more seasons of Joe Sakic’s great big hockey heart and the Colorado Avalanche’s collective soul smashed up against the resolve of tougher teams late in the playoffs.
One point, you say you durabilty in skaters, but then you imply Skrastins is a liability who should holding up another team. I agree that he give up to many defencive zone turnovers (as did every member of out defence), but no one is more durable.